VanEck’s Matthew Segal Sees Bitcoin Hitting $500,000 Through Gold Competition

Matthew Segal, head of digital asset research at VanEck, presented a long-term outlook for bitcoin (BTC) that hinges on its relative value compared to gold. In an analysis reported by Bitcoin Magazine on October 5, Segal described $500,000 as bitcoin’s “north star,” suggesting that the cryptocurrency could reach this price by capturing a significant portion of gold’s market capitalization. He emphasized that investors should consider bitcoin’s role in portfolios, the dollar environment, and macroeconomic trends, rather than focusing solely on short-term price movements.

Segal highlighted the potential revaluation of bitcoin miners as the artificial intelligence (AI) industry expands. He argued that miners with secured power contracts hold valuable assets, as AI data centers increasingly compete for energy resources. The shift in corporate value could weaken the traditional correlation between miners’ share prices and bitcoin’s price, as their power infrastructure gains independent worth.

The analysis also noted that long-term power contracts and investment-grade counterparties are reshaping the business structures of some miners. Segal suggested that the undervalued optionality of these assets could lead to future revaluations, particularly if bitcoin miners’ power resources are leveraged in the growing AI economy.

On the macroeconomic front, Segal viewed bitcoin as a potential hedge against inflation and fiscal dominance. He acknowledged regulatory and technical risks but downplayed their immediate impact. Overall, Segal’s outlook frames bitcoin’s future value through its relative position to gold, the dollar, and broader economic conditions, alongside the evolving role of miners in the AI-driven energy landscape.