William Blair Sees Buying Opportunity in Coinbase and Circle Amid Crypto Recovery

Contrary to current market trends, analysts at William Blair are betting on a recovery in the crypto space. In a recent research note, they maintained an Outperform rating for both Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL), despite slashing their near-term financial projections.

The cuts were significant, with Coinbase's 2026 revenue estimates reduced by 12% and 2027 forecasts by 13%. The adjusted EBITDA outlook took an even harder hit, with projections slashed by 34% across both years. However, the analysts see this as a buying opportunity, pointing to an 'asymmetrical risk/reward' setup for both stocks.

For Coinbase specifically, the firm expects EBITDA to hit its lowest point in the second half of 2026 before rebounding in 2027. This recovery will not be driven solely by a return of retail trading volume but rather by newer revenue streams, including derivatives trading and USDC-related activities.

Circle's USDC stablecoin has been quietly gaining ground, with its market share climbing to approximately 27% as of April 2026, up from about 21% in 2024. The analysts characterized the Coinbase-Circle relationship over USDC reserves as a 'core positive' for both firms.