William Blair Sticks with Bullish View on Coinbase, Circle Amid Regulatory Shifts

Financial services firm William Blair has maintained its Outperform ratings on Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL), citing growth potential from regulatory changes and business diversification.

The company cut its 2026 EBITDA estimate for Coinbase by 11% to $810 million, but still sees earnings recovery driven by factors such as growing Bitcoin prices, expanding crypto-backed lending, and growth in the tokenized real-world asset market, which has expanded to $39 billion recently from $26 billion at the end of last year.

Circle's stock is expected to be boosted by growth in USDC circulation, with the firm noting that USDC's market capitalization could expand as Bitcoin extends its rally. Circle shares have climbed 52% since July 1, and William Blair says regulatory changes such as the SEC's exemption for tokenized stock trading should support growth in the related market.

Coinbase has also diversified its business beyond spot trading, expanding into derivatives for institutional and retail clients, as well as prediction markets, creating new sources of revenue. The company's retail derivatives business generated annualized revenue of about $200 million in the first quarter, while its prediction market business grew to $100 million in the second quarter.