XRP Holds Steady Ahead of Potential Q4 Breakout

Ripple (XRP) is trading sideways around the key $1.50 level, with support at $1.40 and resistance at $1.60. A breakout in either direction could set the tone for XRP's performance in the fourth quarter of 2026. Traders are advised to remain cautious, as an extended period of sideways movement could lead to profit-taking and increased sell-side pressure.

XRP has experienced three consecutive months of positive returns, starting with a 2% gain in July, followed by a 30% surge in August, and an 8% increase in September. This marks the first bullish quarter of 2026, with a cumulative return of 43%. However, the token faced significant drawdowns earlier in the year, with -27% in Q1 and -22% in Q2. If the current momentum continues, XRP could achieve two consecutive quarters of positive returns.

Retail demand in the derivatives market remains elevated, with open interest rising to 2.39 billion XRP on Tuesday. This indicates that retail investors are taking on more risk, which could provide additional support for a steady recovery. On the macro front, the focus is on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike odds, which have decreased to an average of 22% on Tuesday. The next Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will provide more clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy direction.

Technical analysis shows that XRP is trading above $1.50 and holds comfortably above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at $1.40, $1.33, and $1.38, respectively. The SuperTrend line, rising from $1.30, further reinforces the underlying supportive structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57 suggests a constructive territory despite a slightly soft Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading, indicating a moderated but still positive bias.