XRP Market Structure Undermines Price Recovery Efforts

XRP's price has plummeted by roughly 67% from its all-time high, making it the deepest wound among major cryptocurrencies. The token is currently trailing its peer average by over 12 percentage points in a decline that shows no signs of recovery.

A cross-asset drawdown tracker measures how far each coin sits below its record high, putting XRP dead last. In comparison, Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen around 48% and 60%, respectively, while BNB has dropped by approximately 56%.

The damage is not limited to the short-term decline; over a three-month period, XRP's 90-day return sits near negative 21%, making it the worst of the four majors. With no signs of improvement in sight, it's clear that something more sinister is at play.

Analysts point to two key factors contributing to XRP's downfall: a one-sided derivatives book and a retreat by the largest whales. The first driver is the crowded longs on top traders (smart money), who are leaning long on XRP along with the retail crowd, leaving no fresh buyers left to lift the price.

When almost everyone is already long, there is no one left to buy into a dip, causing prices to struggle to rise and further exacerbating the decline when they do drop. This has led to repeated bounces being rejected at resistance, indicating a deeper problem with XRP's market structure.

The final driver sits beneath the price in Santiment data on wallets holding 1 billion XRP or more, which shows their share of supply sliding from 39.4% on April 30 to about 38.65% now, indicating a steady decline over the past three months.