XRP October Seasonality Study Sparks Disagreement Among Analysts

An analyst's study on XRP's October seasonality has been cited by two news outlets, Crypto Basic and CoinTurk News EN, but their reports differ on the interpretation of some statistics. The study by Egrag Crypto found that XRP posted gains in July, August, and September 2026, marking three consecutive positive months. Of the 13 historical Octobers reviewed, XRP closed higher in five and lower in eight. In six of the seven years where September closed green, October closed red.

According to the reports, out of 13 Octobers, XRP recorded declines in eight, with those months posting an average decline of 61.5%. The other five Octobers ended higher, with an average increase of 38.5%. However, the reports disagree on what these figures represent. The Crypto Basic report states that the 61.5% and 38.5% figures represent the percentage of Octobers where XRP closed lower or higher, respectively. On the other hand, CoinTurk News EN reports that these figures represent the average price return for the token during October.

The study also found that in six of the seven cases when XRP posted a green September, October also ended in the red, with an average loss of 85.7%. However, the reports disagree on what the 85.7% figure measures. The Crypto Basic report states that this figure represents the probability of a decline in October after a green September, while CoinTurk News EN reports that it represents the average magnitude of loss.