XRP's Bullish Signals Clash with Historically Weak October Outlook

XRP is flashing three bullish signals heading into October, which has historically been a weak month for the token. Despite giving back some of its September gains, XRP's price remains up over 15.6% on the week.

The first signal comes from long-term holders, who are still underwater despite last week's rebound. The 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio for XRP sits at -11.75%, according to Santiment data. This means that the average wallet active over the past year is sitting at a loss.

Futures traders, however, have started adding exposure again. XRP futures open interest (OI) on Binance has climbed to nearly $600 million, a January-level reading. This is seen as an encouraging signal for the current momentum, but also comes with some caution as OI remains high and can be volatile.

Demand for XRP's spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has held steady, with net inflows every week since mid-July. However, October may prove challenging for XRP, as it has closed the month lower in 8 of 13 years, averaging a -5.14% monthly return.