Bitcoin Surges Above $86,000 as ETF Inflows Soar

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $86,000 level, approaching its previous high of $87,245. This rally is driven by renewed inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and shifting expectations around monetary policy in both Japan and the United States.

The Bank of Japan released the 'Summary of Opinions' from its September 17-18 monetary policy meeting on October 1, highlighting a clear divide between board members who favor accelerating policy normalization and those who argue for carefully assessing the cumulative impact of rate hikes already implemented.

Markets currently price only about a 40% probability of an additional rate hike in Japan in October, with a hold at roughly 60%. In the United States, market views on monetary policy have shifted dramatically, with the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee holds rates steady at its October 28 meeting rising to 74%, up sharply from 35.8% a week earlier.

Analysts are divided on the market's direction from here, with some pointing out that futures open interest has declined roughly 12% from its September 22 peak and others seeing open interest rising alongside price.