Canada's Major Projects Could Generate $443 Billion for SMEs by 2030
A new study from the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC), supported by the Transition Accelerator, reveals that Canada could see an additional $670 billion in investments between 2026 and 2030 from planned major projects. These investments are expected to generate $443 billion in cumulative economic activity, boosting Canada’s GDP by 4.1% by 2030. The study highlights the critical role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with approximately 280,000 Canadian businesses likely to participate in these projects.
The study identifies five key sectors driving this investment boom: housing and civil infrastructure ($220.1 billion), energy ($159.8 billion), defence ($153.7 billion), mining and natural gas ($125.8 billion), and AI data centres ($11.2 billion). While SMEs are eager to seize these opportunities, many face challenges such as financing, capacity, and procurement barriers. The survey found that 67% of SMEs involved in major projects expect to increase their participation over the next 24 months, with high-growth firms and technology sectors showing even stronger ambitions.
Despite the optimism, the study notes a readiness gap between SMEs already involved in large projects and those with limited experience. Larger SMEs in construction, technology, and information services are better positioned to take advantage of these opportunities. Smaller SMEs in sectors like retail and manufacturing are less likely to see opportunities for themselves, citing perceived risk and cash constraints as major barriers. The study suggests that better information, smaller contract lots, and more predictable payment terms could help SMEs scale up and participate more effectively.
Isabelle Hudon, President and CEO of BDC, emphasized the potential for growth, stating, "The stars are aligning for Canadian businesses. A wave of major projects, new technologies and changing ownership trends are opening the door to a decade of growth." Pierre Cléroux, Chief Economist at BDC, added that these projects could build the next generation of Canadian growth companies, moving the needle on the firm size mix across the country.