Canada's Reliance on US Trade Exposed as Tariff Row Escalates

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's warning that Canadian counter-tariffs will affect $4.8 billion of the provincial economy is backed by arithmetic, not a talking point. A provincial assessment found that the incoming hit from Canada's own counter-tariffs on U.S. materials and goods would be about $4.8 billion, or 11.1 percent of Alberta's American imports.

On the other hand, the new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods will affect $1.5 billion of Alberta exports, mostly in furniture, honey, and non-energy products. Oil, gas, and cattle, the core of Alberta's export machine, are largely off the latest U.S. list.

Canada still relies heavily on the United States as a customer, with 72 percent of its goods exported to the U.S. in 2025, according to Congressional Research Service data. The U.S.-Canada trade relationship is about $880 billion in goods and services, but Canada is more exposed due to its energy trade.

Smith's warning that a 50 percent Canadian export tax on oil would invite a 50-100 percent U.S. response on oil, gas, diesel, and gasoline heading into Ontario and Quebec is also supported by data. If this happens, at least half a million jobs could be lost, mostly in Alberta, plus hundreds of thousands in central Canada.