CUSMA Breakdown Could Cost Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs and Trillions

A new report from the Canadian American Business Council warns of widespread economic impacts if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) breaks down. The study, conducted by Oxford Economics, analyzed three possible outcomes: a status quo situation with current tariffs in place, a scenario where CUSMA ends, and one where it's successfully renegotiated.

In the worst-case scenario, 214,000 American jobs and 102,000 Canadian ones would be lost. The U.S. economy would suffer $1.04 trillion US in losses by 2035, while Canada would lose $271 billion Cdn over the same period.

Manufacturing industries in both countries would take a hit, with auto, wood product, and metal product manufacturing being particularly hard-hit on the U.S. side. In Canada, Quebec and Ontario would feel the pain most if CUSMA broke down.

A successful renegotiation, however, would lead to job gains, 137,000 in the U.S. and 98,000 in Canada, and boost GDP for both countries. The report's authors emphasize that a breakdown of CUSMA would have significant consequences for both economies.