Dollar Index Stuck in Neutral Ahead of Fed Decision

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading in a tight range of under two tenths of a point, stuck between the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 99.50 and the 100.00 handle since July's final days.

Two releases have landed, but neither carried any significant message: the four-week average of private hiring slowed to 8.25K from 11K, and existing home sales declined 1.7% MoM.

The futures market is pricing a hold against a quarter point cut at the September 16 meeting, with no clear indication of which way the Fed will lean.

Wednesday's CPI release will provide some insight into inflationary pressures, but even a soft print may not be enough to sway the Fed from its current stance.