ECB Wage Tracker Points to Modest Uptick in Negotiated Wage Growth

The European Central Bank (ECB) has released an update on its wage tracker, which shows that negotiated wage growth is expected to modestly increase in the first half of 2027. The ECB's forward-looking horizon indicates a negotiated wage growth of 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 and 2.8% in the second quarter of 2027.

The employee coverage, which reflects the percentage of employees directly covered by the wage tracker data, still remains limited at 28.8% but is set to steadily increase over time as new agreements are signed.

According to the ECB's calculations based on data provided by various national banks and statistical offices, the headline wage tracker indicator stands at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 and 2.8% in the second quarter of 2027, with a smoothed one-off payment of 2.2% in 2026.

The ECB's wage tracker is a tool used to monitor negotiated wage growth in the euro area, taking into account collective bargaining agreements and employee coverage. The forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, but rather as an indicator of current information available for active collective bargaining agreements.