Gold Edges Higher as US Inflation Data Reduces Rate-Hike Expectations

Gold prices have inched up as investors await Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report for September. The precious metal rose by 0.4% to $4,171.19 an ounce on Thursday, while US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.4% higher at $4,202.30 an ounce.

The increase comes despite pressure from a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, which offset the impact of softer-than-expected US inflation data released on Wednesday. The data showed that US inflation rose less than expected in August, while price pressures for the previous month were revised lower.

This reduction in expectations for an October interest rate hike has given gold a boost, with markets now pricing in a 28% probability of a rate increase, down from 45% before the data and 69% a week earlier. However, HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $4,490 an ounce and $4,825 an ounce, respectively, citing further near-term pressure.