IMF Warns of External Risks to Switzerland's Economic Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed its Article IV Consultation for Switzerland, considering and endorsing the staff appraisal without a meeting on August 25, 2026. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.

The Swiss economy has demonstrated resilience amid global volatility, with growth (adjusted for sporting events) strong at 1.5 percent in 2025 but softening in 2026 due to geopolitical uncertainty and weaker global growth. Inflation picked up after declining to 0.2 percent in 2025, driven by higher energy prices and headline inflation reaching 0.5 percent in June 2026.

The IMF projects growth to moderate to 0.8 percent (1.1 percent without adjustments) in 2026, supported by accommodative monetary policy and real wage growth despite sluggish external demand. Inflation is expected to pick up to 0.6 percent in 2026 but remain low at 0.7 percent over the medium term.

Risks to the outlook are mainly external and tilted to the downside, including elevated geopolitical tensions and a rebound in energy prices that could dampen growth. The IMF notes that maintaining macroeconomic stability will require agility as Switzerland confronts shifting global conditions, population aging, and longer-term productivity and climate-transition challenges.