New Zealand’s general election on November 7 is shaping up as a tough test for the ruling National Party, as voters grapple with a two-speed economy. In urban areas like Lower Hutt, near the capital Wellington, residents such as 70-year-old part-time bus driver Liz Hartley are struggling with the cost of living. Hartley plans to vote tactically to unseat National Party incumbent Chris Bishop, citing economic hardship and government spending cuts that have hurt local businesses.
The National Party, which won the 2023 election on promises to cut inflation and government debt, is now facing voter frustration over sluggish economic recovery. While rural areas, particularly on the South Island, have seen growth in tourism and agricultural exports, urban centers like Auckland and Wellington lag behind. Retail spending in the South Island rose 8.6% in the second quarter, compared to just 5.8% in the North Island. Unemployment has also diverged, falling 0.6 percentage points in the South Island but rising 0.7 percentage points in the North Island.
House prices have plummeted nearly 30% in Wellington and 24.7% in Auckland, far outpacing the national decline of 17%. Political commentators note that the National Party’s message of fiscal restraint and infrastructure investment is falling on deaf ears. Voters are looking for alternatives, with smaller parties like the centrist Opportunity Party gaining traction among urban professionals and disillusioned voters.
Polls suggest no clear path to victory for any potential coalition, as voters weigh the National Party’s economic record against the previous Labour government’s weak growth. Liz Hartley, who should be enjoying retirement, now works part-time to make ends meet, highlighting the real-world impact of the cost of living crisis.