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October Rate Hike Expectations Plummet Amid Weaker Jobs Report

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Market expectations for an October US interest rate hike have plummeted following a weaker-than-expected September employment report.

The CME FedWatch Tool, which is based on trading in 30-day interest rate futures, shows just a 17% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by a quarter percentage point. This is down from close to 36% a week ago and 64% earlier this month.

On prediction market platform Kalshi, the probability of an October rate hike stands at just 18%, down from around 70% a week ago.

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