Pound Downtrend Continues as Aussie Jobs Data Looms

The British pound is expected to continue its downtrend against the Australian dollar in the coming week. The rebound seen in early September has run its course, and sellers have regained control. Any decline should be gradual, as significant support lies beneath the current market price.

According to analysts, a softer oil price is also taking some shine off the Aussie. The 21-day moving average on the GBP/AUD chart is pointing lower, capping the pound's attempts at strength and keeping the path of least resistance down.

The Australian jobs data release on Thursday will be a key highlight for the pair. Consensus expects Australia to show a rebound in hiring after July's decline, which would reinforce expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate by 25 bps in September.

A strong labour market would give the RBA cover to raise interest rates as soon as this month, drawing capital into the Aussie. Market pricing puts the odds of a September RBA hike at around 90%, with Westpac bringing its own call forward to this month.