Rabobank Lowers Odds of September Fed Rate Hike to 25%

Rabobank has revised its assessment of the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, citing recent economic data and market signals.

The reassessment comes as investors and policymakers weigh the path of monetary policy amid mixed inflation and employment figures.

Rabobank analysts point to the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, which showed inflation cooling more than anticipated, and a labor market that remains resilient but is showing signs of softening.

The bank's revised outlook aligns with futures markets, which implied a roughly 25% chance of a hike as of late July 2025, down from over 40% a month earlier.