US Mortgage Rate: The Key Indicator for Housing Market Pressure

The US Federal Reserve recently unveiled its new monetary policy outlook, led by Kevin Warsh. The Fed will remain largely 'data dependent' due to high geopolitical uncertainty.

When assessing the impact of rising borrowing costs on mortgage credit for US households, it's essential to follow a specific interest rate. This rate is the 30-year mortgage rate, which measures the cost of new mortgages and can weigh on housing demand.

The benchmark interest rate for US mortgage lending is the 30-year mortgage rate, with its TradingView ticker MORTGAGE30US. However, it's crucial to note that this rate is not directly indexed to the 30-year US Treasury yield but has a strong historical relationship with the 10-year US Treasury yield.

Monitoring both US10Y and MORTGAGE30US simultaneously allows us to understand the pressure coming from the bond market and how it affects mortgage financing. This second indicator measures the impact of rising long-term rates on the housing purchasing power of US households.