US NFP Data to Decide Fate of October Rate Hike

The upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data release on Friday will be closely watched for signs of labor market strength and its implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

The market expects a reading of 98k for September, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings expected to edge up to a 3.2% annual rate.

A weaker core PCE report in August has reduced expectations of an October rate hike, with the prospect of a consecutive rate hike now at just 24%, down from over 70% last week.

The jobs report will be a key indicator for whether the Fed continues its mini-hiking cycle. Employers are in a wait-and-see mode due to high energy costs and previous rate hikes, which have eaten into profits.