USD/JPY Shows Short-Term Bullishness Despite Bessent's Warning

The USD/JPY pair is displaying a short-term bullish structure despite recent bearish shifts. The past two weeks have seen support delivered from the five-year trendline, but longer-term charts show a clear change of pace since the Japanese Finance Ministry intervened almost two months ago.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently issued his clearest warning yet, saying he has asymmetric information and knows what the Bank of Japan is going to do. He then went on to say 'you can bet against me if you want.' This comment initially led to weakness in the pair, but buyers simply showed up around the 153.00 level.

The larger facet of carry unwind would be fundamental convergence between the two economies and that doesn't appear nearby, at this point. The fear is an intervention or a comment similar to that as the risk-reward gets increasingly less attractive the further price rallies from support and the closer it gets to one of these spots that might elicit a response from policymakers.