$1 Trillion Revenue Threshold for Amazon, Microsoft, Google AI Infrastructure

A recent analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests that Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) need to reach $1 trillion in combined revenue between 2028 and 2030 to achieve a 15% return on invested capital for their artificial intelligence infrastructure.

According to Goldman's financial framework, the three companies require this significant revenue growth over a three-year period to justify upfront capital expenditures on AI infrastructure. However, they already have a substantial cloud service backlog of $1.69 trillion, which covers 59% of the required revenue.

Futurum Equites' Shay Boloor noted that 'Goldman says $AMZN, $MSFT and $GOOGL only need ~$1T of 2028 to 2030 revenue to earn a 15% ROIC on AI capex.' This means the companies must convert their existing backlog into revenue at a certain rate to meet their respective shares of the $1 trillion target.