$220 Billion Bond Rally Driven by AI Hyperscalers
A $220 billion bond rally is underway, driven by AI hyperscalers such as Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) selling nearly $220 billion in bonds due in 2026. This influx of AI-linked bond issuance is intersecting with significant government debt sales, pushing inflation-adjusted yields higher in key global markets.
The U.S. 30-year real yield has hovered close to 3%, marking its highest level in 18 years. Ten-year real yields in both the UK and Germany are also hovering at levels not seen in about a decade. The increased real yields make bonds more attractive compared to equities, and diminish the present value of cash flows expected in the future.
Earnings have remained robust, with over 85% of S&P 500 firms that have reported exceeding forecasts. However, access to capital is tightening due to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, which is driving a competition for capital.