BNP Paribas Raises Boeing Stock Target to $300 Amid Growing Confidence

BNP Paribas Exane has upgraded its view on Boeing stock to Outperform from Underperform, predicting a price target of $300. This marks a significant reversal in the bank's stance and reflects growing confidence that aircraft certifications, inventory deliveries, and lower program losses will finally unlock Boeing's cash-flow recovery.

The new price target implies approximately 39% upside from Boeing's July 31 closing price of $216.14. Analyst Matthew Akers argues that Wall Street has cut expectations too aggressively, with consensus estimates for 2027 free cash flow falling by roughly $4 billion over two years and cumulative 2024-to-2028 forecasts declining by about $24 billion.

BNP now expects Boeing to generate $7 billion in free cash flow during 2027, about $1 billion above consensus. This forecast assumes higher 737 Max and 787 production, lower taxes, and the delivery of completed aircraft currently trapped in inventory while awaiting certification.

Certification of the 737 Max 7, Max 10, and 777X could mark a crucial turning point for Boeing's shares. Delivering those aircraft would release working capital, reduce inventory, and remove uncertainty that has kept Boeing shares largely confined between $150 and $250 since the pandemic.

BNP also believes investors may be overestimating the risk of further 777X charges. Boeing has already recorded approximately $7.5 billion of program-related charges under CEO Kelly Ortberg, while losses from fixed-price defense contracts are expected to decline.