Burke's Immigration Policy Changes May Not Be Enough to Meet NOM Targets

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke's recent immigration policy changes have been described as good in parts by Dr Abul Rizvi, but the crucial question remains whether they are enough to lower net overseas migration (NOM) to the targets set for 2026-27 and 2027-28.

Burke has committed to delivering on the government's NOM target of 245,000 in 2026-27 and 225,000 in 2027-28, and he has made it clear that he will not blame anyone if he fails to deliver within a sensible range of the target.

The changes include preventing students from including spouse and dependent children with their visa application, confining onshore student applicants to those who are making a progression up the Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF) hierarchy, and applying a no further stay condition to business visitors.

However, Dr Rizvi notes that these measures may not be enough to deliver the NOM targets, particularly if the government still intends to deliver the student national planning level (NPL) of 295,000 in 2026 and 2027.