Corporate Financing Surplus Nears Historical Highs as AI Capex Soars

JPMorgan's latest research highlights that corporate financing surplus is nearing historical highs in the US. In its Cash Flow and Liquidity report released on September 24, 2026, JPMorgan noted that the US corporate financing surplus in Q2 2026 approached 2% of US GDP, marking the highest level for non-crisis periods since data collection began in 1952.

The company's analysis also points out that AI-related capital expenditure remains strong but is being offset by weakness in other sectors. This has resulted in cash flow growth exceeding capital expenditure growth, indicating that the corporate sector as a whole does not require additional financing.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, an analyst at JPMorgan, noted that AI capex is heavily concentrated in data centers, while investment in non-tech areas remains relatively soft. The share of total US capex to GDP has seen a moderate uptick in recent years but is still far below the sharp surge witnessed in the 1990s.

The report also mentions that global buybacks are expected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2026, with US companies accounting for $1.3 trillion. The tech sector's share of buybacks has risen steadily over the past decade but may decline over the next 5 to 10 years as hyperscalers and other tech firms' spending on AI infrastructure erodes their surpluses.