Dow Soars to Record High Amid Cooling Inflation and Stricter Conditions
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record high near 53,900 on Thursday and Friday morning provided an explanation for the recent cooling in inflation. Two key indicators showed a decline: July retail sales contracted by 0.6% against a consensus of a 0.1% gain, and preliminary August consumer sentiment landed at 51, down from 54.5 in July.
The contraction in retail sales was broad-based, with headline sales falling 0.6%, sales excluding autos decreasing 0.3%, and the control group that feeds into the GDP consumption estimate dropping 0.4%. This is not a minor miss, but rather a significant downturn in consumer spending.
The market's interpretation of this data was reflected in short-dated Treasuries, which fell to their lowest level since June 30. The two-year yield traded briefly below 4.10%, while ten- and thirty-year yields remained marginally higher. This repricing suggests that the Committee may be hesitant to raise rates before inflation is fully under control.
The bull case for equities relies on a specific set of conditions, including earnings growth near current levels, the Federal Reserve staying on hold, and Crude Oil prices above $80 with the Strait of Hormuz still shut. However, this scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely as the physical arithmetic behind the bet erodes.
The International Energy Agency warned that a reopening of the Strait is urgent due to dwindling global stockpiles and low supply levels. US Crude Oil inventories have dropped below 300 million barrels for the first time in over four decades, and Brent trades near $87 while WTI hovers around $81.50.
The calendar next week will provide key answers as Home Depot reports on Tuesday, followed by Walmart on Thursday. Housing starts and building permits will also be released alongside the private employment gauge. The Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the July meeting will publish on Wednesday, offering insight into the Committee's thought process.