Economist Warns AI Could Triple Unemployment in a Decade

Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu has issued a stark warning about the rapid pace of AI-driven job disruption, predicting that unemployment could triple within a decade if current trends continue. In a 60 Minutes interview published by CBS News, Acemoglu described the current AI transformation as unprecedented, noting that it is unfolding much faster than the Industrial Revolution, which took 80 years to fully develop.

Acemoglu acknowledged that AI is creating new training jobs, but emphasized that the number of workers employed in these roles is small compared to those who will lose their jobs. This concern is echoed by public opinion, with nearly three-fourths of Americans now fearing that AI could cost them their jobs, according to a Pew Research study. A report from the McKinsey Global Institute further projected that AI could push 11 million U.S. workers into new careers by 2035.

However, not everyone agrees with this gloomy outlook. Brendan Foody, CEO of Mercor, described the shift as a natural evolution that could free workers from repetitive tasks. He highlighted AI training as a growing career path that can pay up to $200 an hour, calling it the career of the future. Clara Shih, a former AI executive at Salesforce Inc. and Meta Platforms, Inc., shared her experience of watching AI shrink teams from dozens of people to just a handful, emphasizing the impact on employees' sense of self-worth.

Wall Street has also echoed these warnings, with Goldman Sachs Group finding that entry-level workers are facing the sharpest AI-related hiring pressure, particularly in call-center employment. Meanwhile, Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke offered a contrasting view, suggesting that AI might just end up being a net job creator, as the high cost of AI infrastructure could slow the pace of worker replacements.