Goldman Sachs forecasts AI-driven growth boost for Europe in 2026

Global investment in artificial intelligence has surpassed $1 trillion this year, according to Goldman Sachs, with Europe seeing growth benefits that help counterbalance challenges like energy price hikes. The investment bank projects that AI-driven capital expenditure will boost European GDP growth by 0.05 to 0.15 percentage points in 2026, with an average estimate of 0.10 percentage points. The bulk of AI spending remains concentrated in the US and Asia, but Europe is still benefiting.

Goldman Sachs used three different methodologies to assess the impact. The first method tracked new data center capacity additions globally, assuming a spending pattern similar to the US. This approach indicated that global AI capex could add 0.10 to 0.15 percentage points to Europe's growth in 2026. A second method calculated the domestic value added from European data center construction and AI-related exports, pointing to a contribution of around 0.1 percentage points. The third method analyzed industrial production data in sectors exposed to AI investment, yielding a similar growth forecast.

The bank also reviewed earnings expectations for European companies involved in AI. It found that earnings growth expectations for 2026 have increased by around €12 billion since the start of the AI cycle, equivalent to 0.05% of European GDP. Countries attracting physical data center investments, such as those in Scandinavia and Iberia, are benefiting from domestic construction and related activities. Meanwhile, manufacturing economies like Germany, integrated into the global semiconductor and electrical equipment supply chain, are seeing gains from increased global demand.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that global AI-related investment will maintain its momentum, suggesting that the positive growth impulse observed in Europe for 2026 should extend into 2027.