Goldman Sachs Sees Brighter Outlook for Brokerages and Crypto Stocks

Goldman Sachs has maintained a cautiously optimistic view on brokerages and crypto stocks in the second half of the year. The core support for this judgment is not that crypto trading has already recovered, but that both traditional brokerage business and predictive markets have structural growth and autumn recovery potential.

The recent rise in crypto asset market capitalization leaves additional upside potential for the industry. According to Goldman Sachs, the sector's forward P/E ratio is around 24 times, and EV/EBITDA is around 14.5 times, both at around the 30th percentile over the past five years.

The brokerage and crypto-related stocks outperformed market expectations in the post-second-quarter earnings season. Since the first company in the sector reported second-quarter earnings on July 21, the average stock price of Goldman Sachs' coverage companies has risen by 3%, outperforming the S&P 500 index by about 1 percentage point.

The traditional retail brokerage commissions are expected to grow by 28% year-on-year in the third quarter, with average stock and options trading volumes increasing by approximately 19%. This forecast still depends on whether September trading activity will recover as expected.