Goldman Sachs Sees Consumer Spending Slump Ahead

Goldman Sachs warns that the US economy may be headed for a consumer slowdown in the second half of 2026. The bank estimates that real consumer spending growth could fall to as low as 1% during this period.

This prediction is based on several factors, including the fading effects of tax refunds and ongoing pressures from higher oil prices. Brent oil has risen to $89 a barrel, up around 22% from levels before the start of the Iran war.

Goldman Sachs notes that Americans are already showing signs of tightening their wallets, with retail sales dropping 0.6% in July compared to expectations of a 0.1% increase. The bank attributes this decline to an 'earlier-than-usual' Amazon Prime Day, which was held in June instead of July.