Goldman Sachs Sees Lower August Payrolls, Citing Negative Print Bias

Goldman Sachs is previewing the US August jobs report due on Friday. According to their research, they expect a 40k increase in payrolls in August, which is lower than the consensus of 55k. This forecast reflects a negative first print bias that has been observed over the last decade.

Goldman Sachs also expects a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, citing positive calendar effects. They note that AHE growth fell to just 3.2% year-over-year last month and their broader wage tracker has stabilized in the mid-3s. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.1%, reflecting stabilization in continuing claims.

Goldman Sachs attributes these expectations to softer signals from alternative data, as well as a consistent negative bias observed in August payrolls over the last decade. Their forecast does not account for any positive surprises or upside risks.