KeyBanc lowers McDonald’s price target amid muted sales trends

KeyBanc has reduced its price target for McDonald’s stock from $305 to $280, while keeping an Overweight rating. The stock is currently trading at $233.66, close to its 52-week low of $229.20. According to InvestingPro, the shares are undervalued with a Fair Value of $257.74. The new target is based on 20 times the estimated 2027 earnings per share of $13.94.

The firm revised its second-half 2026 estimates for McDonald’s U.S. business, projecting negative 0.5% same-store sales for Q3 and negative 1.0% for Q4. The company is facing challenges from strong results in the prior year. The stock has dropped 22% year-to-date, and 13 analysts have lowered their earnings estimates for the upcoming period.

KeyBanc noted that while beverages are showing momentum, overall trends remain muted. McDonald’s is focusing on driving top-line improvement through value execution and menu innovation. Investor sentiment and valuation reflect recent and near-term trends, with a focus on domestic sales performance.

In other recent developments, McDonald’s sold a Hong Kong store for approximately $15.3 million. Guggenheim reduced its earnings per share estimates for 2027 and 2028, citing softer U.S. same-store sales and slowing global unit growth. Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $270, expressing concerns over pricing strategy amid increasing competition. Morgan Stanley adjusted its price target to $297, while Bernstein SocGen Group maintained a Market Perform rating with a $295 target.