KeyBanc Reduces McDonald’s Price Target Amid Muted Sales Trends

KeyBanc has lowered its price target for McDonald’s stock to $280 from $305, while keeping an Overweight rating. The stock is currently trading at $233.66, near its 52-week low of $229.20. According to InvestingPro data, the shares are considered undervalued with a Fair Value of $257.74.

The firm adjusted its second-half 2026 estimates for McDonald’s U.S. business. The new price target is based on 20 times the estimated earnings per share of $13.94 for 2027. KeyBanc now expects U.S. same-store sales to decline by 0.5% in the third quarter and 1.0% in the fourth quarter, as the company laps strong results from the prior year.

The stock has dropped 22% year-to-date, and InvestingPro Tips indicate that 13 analysts have revised their earnings downward for the upcoming period. KeyBanc noted that beverages are showing signs of momentum, but overall trends remain muted. McDonald’s is working to drive top-line improvement through value execution and menu innovation.

In other recent developments, McDonald’s sold a Hong Kong store for approximately $15.3 million. Guggenheim reduced its earnings per share estimates for McDonald’s to $13.50 for 2027 and $14.35 for 2028, citing softer U.S. same-store sales and slowing global unit growth. Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $270, expressing concerns over the company’s pricing strategy amid increasing competition. Morgan Stanley adjusted its price target to $297, while Bernstein SocGen Group maintained a Market Perform rating with a $295 target.