Middle East Oil Flows Surge Back to Pre-War Levels

Despite ongoing tensions in the region, crude oil shipments from the Middle East have rebounded to nearly pre-war levels. According to estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group, shipments of crude oil have reached 17.5 million barrels a day, representing about 98% of pre-war levels.

JPMorgan analysts noted that the recovery is 'uneven,' but pointed out that Saudi Arabia has managed to restore half of its East-West pipeline's flows after damage earlier this month. The Strait of Hormuz has also seen increased shipments, with flows reaching nearly 13 million barrels a day, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia.

Goldman Sachs estimated that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the last week, in line with the 2025 average. The analysts also noted that the global oil market is 'roughly balanced' in September, but expressed concerns about potential renewed escalation.