Morgan Stanley Sees $14B Foldable iPhone Opportunity

Morgan Stanley believes Apple's first foldable iPhone could generate around $14 billion in revenue for the December quarter. This estimate comes as the bank anticipates strong initial demand and constrained supply, with between 7 million to 8 million units produced in the second half of 2026. The total number of units produced over the first product cycle is expected to reach up to 20 million.

The launch of the foldable iPhone marks a significant change in form factor for Apple's flagship device, with the last major redesign happening nearly 10 years ago when the iPhone X was released. Morgan Stanley expects this event to be critical in testing Apple's pricing power, with the largest like-for-like price increases in years anticipated.

The bank notes that rising NAND and DRAM costs are driving up the prices of Pro models, with some upgrades expected to cost over $200 more than their predecessors. Specifically, the iPhone 18 Pro is likely to see a significant upgrade with the move to TSMC's 2nm process for improved on-device AI performance.