Nike's Turnaround Tested by Weak Demand Ahead of Q1 Results

Nike Inc.'s (NKE) upcoming Q1 results on October 1 will be closely watched by Wall Street, but this time it's not just about beating revenue estimates. Analysts are more concerned with whether the company's turnaround efforts can offset weak demand in its lifestyle business.

Stifel recently cut its price target to $40 from $45 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing concerns over a promotional Western marketplace and tougher fiscal fourth-quarter gross-margin comparisons. The firm reduced its FY2027 and FY2028 adjusted EPS estimates by $0.20 each, to $1.70 and $2.05.

However, there are still positive signs from Nike's reset efforts. Performance grew mid-single digits in fiscal 2026, while Running posted five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, adding roughly $1 billion in revenue. North American wholesale revenue grew 10% in the fourth quarter, driven by lower returns, cancellations, and discounts.

The World Cup is also expected to provide a boost, with Stifel estimating it could add around $300 million to Q1 revenue. Nike has already pointed to stronger football demand and said its World Cup product launches are gaining traction.