NVIDIA Stock Faces Headwinds as Supply Shortages Loom

NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has had a remarkable run over the past six months, returning 32% and outperforming the S&P 500. However, several factors could potentially stall this momentum in the next six months.

The first event to watch is the ramp-up of NVIDIA's Vera Rubin data center system in volume during fiscal Q3 2027. This could be a positive factor for the stock.

However, supply shortages may limit how much NVIDIA can ship, which could have a negative impact on the stock. In fact, management expects this bottleneck to persist at least through the end of fiscal 2028.

NVIDIA will report its fiscal Q3 2027 results on November 17, 2026, and investors will be watching closely for revenue and gross margin figures. Management has guided revenue to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, but a reading below the low end of this guide could indicate that revenue growth is slowing.

Gross margin is also expected to hit its low in fiscal Q4 2027 at 71% to 72%, due to rising memory costs. However, management expects price increases to take effect in fiscal Q1 2028 to lift margins back up to 72% to 73%.