NVIDIA Stock Struggles to Recover from Stagnation

NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has been stagnant at around $212, about 10% below its 52-week high. Despite this, the company has continued to grow, with revenue climbing 83.4% over the past year.

The main concerns for NVIDIA are rising memory prices and who funds the demand. The company has invested nearly $50 billion in Frontier AI labs and partnered with six infrastructure capital firms to raise over $500 billion of outside money. This has led to some criticism about circular financing, but management ties margin resets to component costs, not demand.

NVIDIA's business is still growing, with the Vera Rubin shipments starting in August 2026 and expected to make up around 20% of data center revenue in fiscal Q3 2027. However, the company has fallen hard in the past when a shock arrives, with an average decline of 28% peak-to-trough across its 15 market shocks since 2007.

The recovery record for NVIDIA is more positive, with a median wait time from low to pre-shock high of around a month. However, the company's position size should be considered in light of its own history, particularly given the recent growth and demand scares that have cost NVIDIA an average of 36%.