Nvidia Traders Bet Big on Earnings Bounce

Nvidia's upcoming earnings report has traders expecting significant price movement in the stock. According to options pricing, there is a 5.6% swing expected after the report, more than double the median post-earnings swing of the past four quarters.

This would be the biggest earnings move for Nvidia since its fourth-quarter 2024 report published in February 2025. Bullish calls are trading at notably higher prices than puts, suggesting traders are more actively preparing for a rally than a sell-off.

Options positioning analysis by SpotGamma's Brent Kochuba suggests that if Nvidia shares can rally past the $220 level, it could trigger momentum-chasing even by some of the biggest market makers. A strong earnings call and reaction could force dealers to buy stock to hedge their negative gamma stance above that 220 price point.

Traders are paying up for the possibility of a big win, with the price of call options betting on a one standard-deviation move in the 70th percentile of the past year. In contrast, the price of puts betting on the equivalent move to the downside are in the bottom 40th percentile.

Nvidia's performance has been poor overall despite robust beats on earnings and guidance, according to Charlie Moon, a tech and momentum trading specialist at Prosper Trading Academy in Chicago.