Nvidia's $267 Billion Warning for Micron Stock

Nvidia has just made a $267 billion commitment to memory suppliers through fiscal year 2029, sparking concerns about Micron Technology's future stock performance.

As one of the beneficiaries of the AI memory boom, Micron shares have risen by 697% over the last year. However, Nvidia's supply and capacity commitments may indicate that this trend is set to reverse.

Nvidia has budgeted $92 billion for memory in fiscal 2027, $87 billion in 2028, and $88 billion in 2029, totaling $267 billion through the end of 2029. This suggests that Micron's revenue may peak between December 2028 and January 2029.

While Nvidia's purchase orders do not directly translate to revenue for Micron, they do indicate a shift in market dynamics. If Nvidia scales back its purchase orders, investors will no longer apply a scarcity premium to the AI memory market, potentially leading to a de-rating of Micron stock.