UBS Doubles Down on JNJ Buy Rating Amid Caplyta Trial Success

UBS has reaffirmed its Buy rating for Johnson & Johnson stock and raised its price target to $320, citing positive results from a Phase III clinical trial of Caplyta. The company's pivotal study met its primary endpoint, showing a statistically significant reduction in YMRS total score versus placebo at Week 3.

The trial demonstrated an effect size of -0.69 (p less than 0.0001), indicating that the drug can develop into a durable bipolar asset spanning multiple phases of disease. UBS views this as a meaningful positive for the Caplyta franchise and believes it supports long-term peak sales potential exceeding $5 billion.

UBS currently models 2033 sales of $4.3 billion for Caplyta, roughly in line with consensus estimates. The firm expects the franchise to remain highly durable with limited generic competition well beyond the next decade. It also notes Johnson & Johnson's plans to resolve patent litigation with generic manufacturers as a factor supporting the drug's long-term commercial prospects.