US F-47 Delay Puts Sixth-Generation Fighter Gap at Risk

The US Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance program is facing significant delays. The Boeing F-47, the sixth-generation air superiority fighter, is now expected to enter service in the mid-2030s at the earliest, rather than the previously hoped-for 2030 target.

This delay means that the gap between the US and China's advanced fighter capabilities is widening, as China has already flown at least two sixth-generation fighter prototypes.

The main issue behind these delays is not technological but capacity-related. The American defence-industrial base is saturated with various programs competing for engineers, test facilities, supplier networks, and security-cleared workforce, leading to industrial saturation.

As a result, the Air Force will have to keep flying the F-22 Raptor far longer than planned, at an estimated $80,000 per flight hour. The operational fleet is already small, with only 187 production aircraft built, and many are approaching their 8,000-hour service life.