Commodities market news | Guavy

Lead story 20m ago London Gold Centre Introduces Live Gold Price Calculator for Consumers London Gold Centre has launched an online gold price calculator that uses live market data to help consumers estimate the value of their gold. The tool supports various gold purities and provides guidance on hallmarks and weight conversions. Mohamed Aliya noted that the calculator offers a straightforward way to check gold value before seeking a professional valuation. The company, which has been in the precious metals trade since 2001, emphasizes that the tool provides indicative estimates rather than final valuations. Sentiment 0 Clout 80 Speculation 1 Gold

Earlier today

Times in UTC

15:59 India Eases Silver Imports Ahead of Festival Season Amid Mixed Market Signals Silver markets saw mixed signals in September, with Indian silver funds inflows rising 55% to ₹1,974 crore, but imports dropping 49% year-over-year. China is stepping back from leveraged silver trading and remains a net exporter. Silver prices partially recovered after a 6% drop, trading near $57.98, while gold was at $4,141.01. The outlook is mildly positive, with India easing import rules ahead of its festival season, but cautious investor sentiment persists. Gold Silver 15:14 Chinese Copper Smelters Plan Output Cuts Amid Rising Costs Chinese copper smelters, including Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co. and Daye Nonferrous Metals Group Holdings Co., are planning to cut output this year and into 2027 due to rising ore costs and falling byproduct prices. Some plants have already reduced operations, with up to 30% of Tongling’s primary smelting capacity affected. The moves are aimed at mitigating heavy losses ahead of fee talks with international concentrate suppliers. Copper 14:53 Cheniere and QatarEnergy Strike Long-Term LNG Supply Deals Cheniere Energy has signed long-term deals to supply QatarEnergy with 4 million metric tons of LNG annually from the early 2030s through 2054. The agreements cover 2 million metric tons per year from each of Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals. Prices are indexed to Henry Hub natural gas prices plus a fixed fee. The Sabine Pass expansion could boost its total production capacity to over 50 million metric tons per year. Natural Gas 14:28 France Secures Winter LNG from QatarEnergy Amid Supply Challenges France has secured winter LNG supply commitments from QatarEnergy to address below-average storage levels and an upcoming ban on Russian imports. The EU’s storage levels are trailing the five-year average, intensifying competition for US spot volumes. QatarEnergy is seeking US replacement supplies to meet the growing demand. The move highlights the strategic importance of LNG in ensuring energy security for Europe. Natural Gas 13:55 AI Boom and Geopolitical Tensions Strain Global Metals Supply Wood Mackenzie warns that the AI boom and geopolitical disruptions are straining global metals supplies, with mining investments lagging behind. AI-related electricity demand is projected to increase fivefold by 2030, requiring significantly more metal for supporting infrastructure. Copper prices have hit a record $14,759 per tonne, while aluminum and nickel markets face supply shocks and shifting balances. Battery technology is driving additional demand for metals, with financing and electricity availability posing further challenges. Copper 13:22 Gold Dips Below $4,100 as Jobless Claims Hit Three-Month Low Gold prices are under pressure, falling below $4,100 an ounce, as U.S. jobless claims dropped to a three-month low. The Labor Department reported 194,000 initial claims for the week ending October 17, lower than expected. Spot gold is trading at $4,076, down 1.5% on the day, amid a stronger labor market. Gold 12:31 Silver Dips but Remains Up Over Last Year Silver prices fell to $55.75 per ounce today, a $1.92 drop from yesterday but still up over $7 from last year. The metal has seen a 15.55% decline over the past month but a 14.97% gain year-over-year. Silver’s dual role as an inflation hedge and industrial commodity leads to more volatile price swings compared to gold. Investors can access silver through physical holdings, ETFs, or mining stocks. Analysts attribute the recent rally to limited supply and increasing demand. Gold Silver 12:01 Irish Farmer Calls for Fairer Grain Pricing and Standards Gary Roe, a farmer in County Laois, highlighted the pricing challenges faced by tillage farmers due to competition from countries with lower standards. The 2026 drought damaged many of his crops, though organic fertilizer helped mitigate some losses. He advocates for stricter import standards and a higher inclusion rate for Irish grain to support local mills. Rising costs for fuel, insurance, and labor are also pressing concerns. Wheat 11:34 Central Banks Rush to Stockpile Gold Amid Geopolitical Shifts Central banks globally are stockpiling gold at a record pace, with August 2026 purchases reaching 79 tonnes, over four times the pre-2022 average. China is a key buyer, though other economies may be acquiring even more. The trend reflects a shift away from G7 reserve currencies and growing concerns about reserve security. The Dutch and French central banks have moved gold out of the U.S., citing geopolitical and purity reasons. Central banks are increasingly diversifying storage locations, signaling a broader strategic realignment. Gold 11:06 AHDB Forecasts Tighter UK Wheat and Barley Supply for 2026/27 Season AHDB's early balance sheets for the 2026/27 season indicate a tighter supply and demand outlook for UK wheat and barley. Wheat stocks are 24% below the previous year, while barley production is down 14% year on year due to drought and reduced planting areas. Demand is forecast to be 1% lower, with animal feed use expected to remain high. Imports of wheat and barley are projected to rise, but uncertainty remains due to production estimates and global price pressures. Defra will release final crop estimates on December 10, with AHDB providing official supply and demand estimates on November 26. Wheat 10:56 Gunnison Copper Hosts U.S. Officials Ahead of NYSE Debut Gunnison Copper Corp. welcomed U.S. officials to its Arizona mine on October 20, 2026, ahead of its NYSE American debut under GUNN. The company announced employee equity awards and highlighted its role in expanding domestic copper production. The visit included the dedication of Gunnison Copper Patriots Plaza and discussions on advancing the Gunnison Copper Project, which has a net present value of US$2 billion. Copper 10:12 Silver Consolidates Near $57.24 After Recent Rally Silver futures are trading near $57.24, consolidating below key resistance after a recent rally to $58.76. The Weekly VC PMI at $58.21 is a critical level, with resistance at $58.40 and $59.10, and support at $57.03 and $55.50. The MACD indicator suggests improving short-term momentum. Cycle analysis and Square 9 geometric levels provide additional reference points, while fundamental factors like industrial demand and interest rates may influence future price movements. Traders should exercise caution and manage risk carefully. Silver 09:40 India's Gold Sales Expected to Fall 11% in October Despite Festive Demand India's retail gold sales are projected to drop 11% year-over-year in October 2026, despite a festive season pickup. Elevated prices, with spot gold trading at Rs 1,43,447 per 10 grams, are suppressing demand. Jewellers are offering festive deals to attract buyers, but IBJA Secretary Surendra Mehta does not anticipate a significant recovery. The overall trend for gold remains weak, with inflation concerns and the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision adding to market uncertainty. Gold 09:23 Bitcoin Leads Five-Year Returns but Volatility Remains a Concern Bitcoin delivered the highest returns over the past five years, with a 183% gain, followed by gold at 131% and the Nifty 50 at 26%. Bitcoin's volatility and gold's role as a safe haven highlight the importance of diversification. Experts advise considering financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon when choosing investments. The Fed meeting on October 27 and 28 will be a key event for all three asset classes. Gold 08:39 US Evacuates Diplomats From Saudi Amid Houthi Attacks The US has ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia due to heightened threats from Houthi militants. The Iran-backed group carried out attacks on an Aramco oil site and an eastern airport, killing at least four people. The escalation has prompted concerns over regional stability and the safety of foreign personnel in Saudi Arabia. Oil 08:20 Gold's Safe-Haven Status Tested During U.S. Midterms The World Gold Council discusses gold's role as a safe-haven asset during U.S. midterm elections, noting that historical patterns may not always apply. Expert Juan Carlos Artigas emphasizes the complexity of market dynamics. The LBMA Gold Price is highlighted as a key benchmark, but the council cautions against relying solely on past performance for future predictions. Investors are advised to seek professional guidance. Gold 07:57 Global Stocks Dip as AI Trade Jitters Persist Oil Rises After Saudi Attacks Global stocks fell as US tech earnings failed to calm AI trade jitters, with Meta boosting its capital spending forecast. Oil prices rose after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia killed three people, prompting the US to evacuate non-emergency personnel. Experts Francisco Blanch and Christian Keller analyzed the market impact on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. Oil 07:06 Nickel Surges on Indonesian Production Cut Speculation Nickel prices rose for a fourth day, reaching over $16,000 a ton, as expectations of production cuts by Chinese producers in Indonesia suggested tighter supply. Copper prices dropped following a large delivery into exchange warehouses. The nickel rally follows a nine-month low hit last Thursday, reflecting market volatility and supply concerns. Copper 06:37 Oil prices climb on Middle East strike fears and Houthi attacks Oil prices jumped on Thursday due to concerns over potential U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. Brent crude rose to $110.67 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude reached $98.53. The U.S. has ordered non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia amid rising Houthi attacks. Analysts suggest the economic impact of higher oil prices may be less severe today, as households are less vulnerable to energy shocks than in the past. Oil 06:27 Oil Prices Steady Amid Middle East Tensions and Iran War Escalation Oil prices held steady on October 21, 2026, amid escalating Middle East tensions linked to the Iran war. Brent crude settled around $109 a barrel before rising above $110 in post-settlement trading. The market reacted to conflicting signals about Iran talks and the impact of regional attacks, with key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz remaining operational. Traders weighed the risks of further disruptions against current oil flows, keeping prices volatile but stable. Oil 05:30 Houthi strikes near Saudi oilfield push Brent crude above $110 Brent crude prices climbed above $110 a barrel after a Houthi drone strike near Saudi Aramco's Shaybah oilfield raised supply concerns. The attack, which caused casualties but did not disrupt operations, followed a deadly strike on Dammam airport. Repeated attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, are increasing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. The US has ordered non-emergency personnel to leave Saudi Arabia due to the escalating threats. Oil 05:01 Palm Oil Prices Climb on Strong Exports and Demand Malaysian palm oil futures rose above MYR 4,750 per tonne, supported by a surge in October exports and strong demand from India. Higher crude oil prices also boosted palm oil’s competitiveness as biodiesel. However, gains were capped by weaker futures in Dalian and Chicago, along with concerns over elevated production and record-high inventories. Oil 04:55 Corn Futures Rise Again on Dip-Buying and Demand Boost US corn futures rose for a second day on October 22, 2026, due to dip-buying and stronger demand signals. The most-active contract in Chicago climbed as much as 0.6% before paring gains, following a six-day loss of over 4%. The rebound suggests renewed investor interest and improved demand in key markets. Corn 04:23 AI Investment Cycle Strong Despite Oil Price Volatility Says Bank Julius Baer Mark Matthews of Bank Julius Baer & Co. expects elevated crude oil prices to moderate over time, citing historical trends and disproportionate price increases relative to supply risks. He emphasized that the AI investment cycle remains strong, supported by earnings growth and productivity gains. Matthews also expressed optimism about India's technology sector adapting to AI despite automation challenges, citing the country's mathematical talent and large workforce. Oil 03:51 European Natural Gas Prices Near Four-Year Highs Amid Supply Crunch European natural gas prices held above €87/MWh on Thursday, nearing four-year highs due to constrained Middle Eastern LNG supplies and low storage levels. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have cut LNG exports by 80% compared to last year, with alternative suppliers unable to fully compensate. European gas storage is at its lowest level for this time of year since 2009, raising concerns about winter availability. Natural Gas 03:08 Gold and Silver Prices Slide Amid Rising Oil and Geopolitical Tensions Gold and silver prices fell in global markets on October 22, 2026, due to rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia and higher crude oil prices. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.49% to $4,129.60 per ounce, while silver futures declined 1.15% to $57.045 per ounce. In India, gold and silver prices also decreased on October 21, 2026, amid a stronger rupee and weak global trends. Investors are watching crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, and U.S. monetary policy for further direction. Oil Gold Silver 02:43 Wheat Prices Extend Losses as Planting Progress Lags Wheat prices fell again on Wednesday, with losses across Chicago SRW, KC HRW, and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts. Open interest data suggests new short interest in the market. Planting progress for winter wheat lags behind the 5-year average, particularly in Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio. EU wheat exports matched last year's pace, but futures continued to decline. Wheat 02:20 Base Metals See Mixed Outlook Amid Supply and Tariff Uncertainties LME Week 2026 highlighted mixed outlooks for base metals, with copper prices expected to stay elevated due to supply stresses and U.S. tariff uncertainty. Aluminium prices have dropped, reflecting improved supply prospects. Zinc prices have been adjusted higher, while nickel prices have been tweaked lower. The London Metal Exchange reported a 16% increase in average daily turnover, indicating robust health. Copper 01:53 Two Dead in Drone Attack on Aramco Oil Field in Saudi Arabia Two people died in a drone attack on Aramco’s Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province on Wednesday. The field, capable of producing 1 million barrels of crude oil daily, was unaffected. A separate attack on an airport in the region resulted in one additional fatality. The incidents occurred amid ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis. Oil 01:17 Oil Prices Climb on Houthi Strike at Saudi Aramco Field Oil prices rose on Thursday, October 22, 2026, after a drone strike on a Saudi Aramco oilfield heightened supply concerns. Brent crude reached $110.09 a barrel, extending its 80% year-to-date surge due to the US-Iran war. Crude shipments have recovered, but refined products remain tight. Governments are releasing stockpiles to ease pressure, with the US set to receive Russian diesel. The conflict shows no signs of resolution, and new strikes against Iran are reportedly planned. Oil 00:44 Iran Tensions Drive Oil Prices to Five-Month Highs Oil prices jumped by more than $2 on Wednesday after Iran ruled out diplomatic progress with the US, pushing Brent crude to near five-month highs. Brent futures rose to $110.85 a barrel, while WTI crude climbed to $99.95. Geopolitical tensions and falling US crude inventories contributed to the rally. Iran-aligned Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities, while US officials sought to boost global fuel output. Oil 00:01 Venezuelan Oil Surge Deepens Canadian Heavy Oil Discounts Canadian heavy oil prices are facing increased pressure due to a surge in Venezuelan oil exports to the U.S. and full pipeline capacity, widening the discount on Western Canadian Select to US$28 per barrel below WTI. Analysts have revised their forecasts, predicting the differential to remain high in the coming years. Despite this, higher benchmark prices and strong refining margins are helping Canadian producers maintain profits. The sector's outlook remains positive, with expectations for strong earnings and potential project announcements. Oil Natural Gas

Yesterday

Times in UTC

23:47 APA Group Approves Major Gas Pipeline to Address Australia Shortages APA Group has approved the construction of the Bulloo Interlink Pipeline between Queensland and New South Wales to prevent gas shortages in Australia's southeast. The project, supported by a five-year agreement with Origin Energy Ltd., will start construction early next year and begin operations in winter 2029. The pipeline aims to address projected gas shortfalls in the region. Natural Gas 23:26 European Gas Prices Surge on Winter Supply Fears and Hot UK Inflation European wholesale natural gas prices surged over 3% on Wednesday, with both regional benchmarks nearing their highest levels since late 2022. The rally was driven by hotter-than-expected UK inflation data and ongoing Persian Gulf energy disruptions, which have slashed Middle Eastern LNG deliveries to Europe by nearly 80%. European gas storage facilities are at their lowest seasonal level since 2009, raising concerns about winter heating demand. The European benchmark is up approximately 210% year-to-date, while the British equivalent has gained roughly 196%. Natural Gas 22:44 Wheat Futures Tumble on Peace Talks and Favorable Weather Wheat futures fell on Wednesday due to renewed peace talks, planting progress, weak demand, and favorable weather. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada adjusted its wheat ending stocks and export projections for 2026-27. Soybean prices dropped despite increased U.S. exports to China, while corn futures saw a slight rise. ANEC revised its estimates for Brazilian soybean and corn exports, and SovEcon lowered its forecasts for Ukrainian wheat and corn exports. Wheat Corn 22:16 France Secures Qatar LNG Supplies Amid Winter Energy Crisis President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will receive 2 terawatt-hours of LNG per month from Qatar during winter to address rising energy prices. The supply faces challenges due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Iran war, which has led to higher costs and protests in Europe. France’s gas inventories are currently 87.5% full, and the country is working on improving transport safety and insurance mechanisms for tankers. Additional diesel supply deals and military upgrades were also discussed. Natural Gas 21:43 Firozpur farmers gear up for large-scale chilli exports to Dubai Firozpur farmers are set to export 700 tonnes of green chillies to Dubai this year, up from 15 tonnes last year, after expanding cultivation to 60 acres. The expected return is Rs 2.68 lakh per acre, significantly higher than wheat. The Saragarhi Farmer Producer Company Ltd secured an export contract at Rs 29 per kg, with support from the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund (AIF) team. The initiative aims to help farmers diversify and access high-value markets. Wheat 21:24 S&P Global Warns of Global Food Crisis Due to Hormuz Disruptions The S&P Global Institute warns that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are turning an energy crisis into a global food security threat. Fertilizer prices have doubled, risking food shortages for staple crops and pushing 45 million more people into hunger. The International Monetary Fund predicts a 10 percent rise in fertilizer prices by year-end, with food costs increasing 5 percent in 2026 and 2.4 percent in 2027. The poorest countries face the worst impacts, and experts fear rising food inflation could spark civil unrest. Wheat Corn 20:40 Silver Dips as Dollar Strengthens Bearish Trend Continues Silver prices fell on Wednesday, dropping from a high of $58.18 to $57.87 per troy ounce as the US Dollar strengthened. The technical outlook remains bearish, with key support levels at $56.38, $55.00, and $50.00. A bullish reversal would require silver to break above $60.00. The metal's price is influenced by its safe-haven status, industrial demand, and the US Dollar's strength. Silver 20:00 Central Banks Boost Gold Demand as Blue Jay Gold Secures Key Agreement Central banks purchased 289 metric tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, with strong buying continuing into September. Analysts predict gold could outperform the Nasdaq, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2027. Blue Jay Gold has secured a materials purchase agreement with Ocean Partners for its Steller Gold Project, which will support remediation efforts and fund further exploration. The company plans to complete a PEA in early 2027 to evaluate direct shipping options for the mineral resource. Gold 19:55 Digital Gold Market Poised to Unlock $95 Billion in Demand by 2031 The digital gold market, valued at $45 billion to $55 billion, could generate an additional $95 billion in demand by 2031. A survey of 12,000 investors found high interest, especially among younger demographics, but trust remains a significant barrier. The World Gold Council highlights the need for stronger consumer protections and clearer regulations to build confidence. Accessibility through familiar services boosts ownership in countries like China and India. In South Africa, interest in digital gold is high, but actual ownership lags behind. Gold 19:08 Central Banks Boost Gold Buying Spree in 2026 Central banks purchased an estimated 289 metric tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, with strong buying continuing into September. Analysts predict gold could outperform the Nasdaq and reach $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2027. Blue Jay Gold Corp. has secured a materials purchase agreement with Ocean Partners UK Limited for its Steller Gold Project, which will support remediation efforts and potentially lead to a direct shipping ore option. Gold 18:48 Copper Dips as Inventories Rise, Nickel Surges on Supply Cuts Copper prices dropped on Wednesday due to rising inventories and easing supply worries, despite record premium offers for next year’s deliveries. LME inventories climbed by 11,475 tons, with available stocks up 40% in a week. Analysts predict global copper surpluses for the next few years. Nickel prices jumped 4.1% on potential production cuts in Indonesia, while other metals showed mixed movements. Copper 18:27 Gold Stuck in Range Gold Silver Vulnerable Ahead of Elections Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discussed gold’s range-bound trading near $4,160 and potential near-term drops toward $4,000, while expecting stronger demand and higher prices into 2028. Silver, trading around $58.25, may fall further before elections but could rise afterward due to political risks. Christian also analyzed platinum and palladium, noting dollar strength does not automatically mean lower precious metals prices. Gold Silver 17:44 Royal Mint Reports Record Silver and Platinum Sales Amid Market Volatility The British Royal Mint reported record sales for silver and platinum bullion in the first nine months of 2026, with revenue surging by 295% and 118% respectively. Gold bullion demand also saw a 21% increase in the third quarter. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of customers, indicating growing interest in precious metals despite market volatility. In contrast, the U.S. Mint reported dismal sales for American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins, with only 111,500 ounces of gold sold so far this year. Gold 17:14 Minnesota Farmers See Hope in Higher Crop Prices Despite Challenges Minnesota farmers are experiencing a more optimistic outlook this year due to higher crop prices and a better harvest, following a difficult 2025 season. While some farmers like Megan Horsager report strong yields, others, such as Pam Vipond, face severe drought impacts. Corn and soybean prices have risen significantly, though rising diesel costs and global conflicts continue to pose challenges. The USDA forecasts increased crop revenue and government support for farmers in 2026, though uncertainty remains about future fuel and market conditions. Corn 16:44 Central Banks Face Policy Dilemma as Gold's Role Grows Central banks are struggling to balance inflation control with economic stability, facing the risk of either reigniting price pressures or causing economic damage. Higher interest rates are straining public finances, with G7 bond yields rising over one percentage point. Supply shocks add complexity, as central banks cannot address supply constraints. Gold's appeal lies in its independence from government obligations, making it a hedge against policy uncertainty. Gold 16:26 East Natural Gas Storage May Flip to Deficit After Pipeline Leak Natural gas storage in the East may soon fall into a deficit relative to 2025, driven by a mid-October pipeline leak in Appalachia that disrupted production. Thursday’s government inventory report could confirm leaner injection levels, influencing market dynamics and regional supply. The pipeline outage has been a key factor in this potential shift, with analysts monitoring the impact on storage and prices. Natural Gas 15:36 Gold Prices Dip in India Amid Global Economic and Geopolitical Pressures Gold prices in India dropped on October 21, 2026, with 24 carat gold at Rs 14,608 per gram, down Rs 109 from the previous day. Vikram Subburaj of Giottus.com noted that gold is under pressure while silver is recovering, influenced by inflation concerns and US interest rate outlooks. Internationally, spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,125.90 an ounce. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz also impacted market sentiment. Gold Silver 15:25 Analysts Dismiss AI Boom as Major Copper Demand Driver Analysts at Bloomberg LME Week argued that the AI boom is overhyped as a driver of copper demand, with prices currently supported by US policy and constrained supply. The London Metal Exchange three-month copper price closed at $14,420.50 per tonne on Tuesday. Cyclical demand sectors are under pressure, and substitution effects in China have reduced copper demand by around 200,000 tonnes. The US holds 1.6 million tonnes of copper, with potential export restrictions tightening the market. US tariff policies are significantly influencing copper prices, reflecting supply security concerns. Copper 14:49 Silicon Valley secures copper for AI infrastructure build-out Silicon Valley is securing long-term copper supply contracts to support AI infrastructure growth. The London Metal Exchange notes that tech companies are prioritizing copper due to its critical role in AI hardware. This trend could impact copper market prices as demand outpaces supply. Copper 14:28 East Natural Gas Storage May Flip to Year-Over-Year Deficit Natural gas storage in the East may soon fall behind last year’s levels due to a mid-October pipeline leak in Appalachia. Thursday’s government inventory report could reveal the extent of the deficit, reflecting the impact of production disruptions. The situation underscores the vulnerability of regional energy markets to infrastructure issues. Natural Gas 13:50 Copper Supply Deficit Threatens Technological Boom The global copper market is facing a worsening supply deficit due to high demand from electrification and AI data centers. Prices have surged, with London copper trading around $14,470 a ton. Forecasters predict a shortfall of 330,000 to 600,000 tons this year, with a potential 20 million metric ton gap by 2050. BHP Group Limited reported a 19% drop in copper output in the September quarter, highlighting supply chain vulnerabilities. The company’s earnings from copper have overtaken those from iron ore. Copper 13:06 Israeli bakeries seek bread price hikes after flour costs surge Israeli flour mills are raising prices by 10% to 15% due to disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, forcing bakeries to seek government approval for price increases on controlled bread. The war has disrupted wheat supplies, leading to higher costs from alternative sources. Local wheat production is also more expensive, tied to costly American imports. Consumers may soon face higher prices for bread and other baked goods. Wheat 12:42 Gold Prices Edge Up Amid Broader Downward Trend On October 21, 2026, gold prices rose slightly to $4,139.10 per ounce, up 0.04% from the previous close. However, the metal has fallen 5.05% over the past year and 5.17% over the past month. Gold is currently trading below its 52-week high but above its 52-week low. Factors like inflation, central bank policies, and investor demand influence its price. Gold 12:24 UK Approves Jackdaw Gas Field Drilling Amid Energy Security Debate The UK government has approved drilling at the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea, which could meet 1.6% of the country's gas demand over the next decade. While the additional gas production is not expected to lower energy bills significantly, it may enhance energy security and generate tax revenues for green energy projects. The environmental impact remains debated, with potential benefits and drawbacks depending on the mix of gas imports. Production is set to begin within weeks and continue for 11 years. Natural Gas 11:57 Gold Prices Drop Over 5% Should You Buy Jewelry Now for Wedding Season Gold prices in India have dropped over 5% in a month, with 24K gold at ₹1,46,270 per 10 grams on October 21, 2026. Experts recommend buying now for wedding season, citing unlikely further price reductions and festive demand. They advise monitoring key factors like exchange rates and US real yields. Prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels before potentially rising before Diwali. Gold 11:26 Gold Futures Rise in Malaysia Following US COMEX Gains Gold futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher on Wednesday, following gains on the US COMEX. The October 2026 contract rose to US$4,126.10 per troy ounce, while the November 2026 contract increased to US$4,142.70. Trading volume and open interest declined. Physical gold was fixed at US$4,124.50 per troy ounce on October 20, 2026. Gold 10:59 Macron Secures Qatar LNG Deal to Ease Winter Energy Costs French President Emmanuel Macron secured additional LNG supplies from Qatar, ensuring 2 terawatt-hours per month for the winter. The agreement aims to lower energy costs amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Macron also highlighted efforts to reduce fuel transport costs from the Persian Gulf. Natural Gas 10:21 UK approves Jackdaw gas field despite environmental opposition The UK government has approved the development of the Jackdaw gas field, which will supply cheaper and lower-emission gas than imports. Critics argue it won’t lower consumer bills, while environmentalists condemn it as harmful. The decision aligns with existing infrastructure, bypassing a 2024 manifesto pledge against new oil and gas licenses. Labour leader Keir Starmer may face internal party divisions over the move. Natural Gas 09:42 Gold Prices Drop Over 5% Should Buyers Act Now for Wedding Season Gold prices in India have dropped over 5% in a month, with 24K gold at ₹1,46,270 per 10 grams on October 21, 2026. Experts recommend buying now for wedding season, suggesting prices are unlikely to fall further. They advise monitoring key factors like exchange rates and geopolitical developments. Prices are expected to remain range-bound before Diwali, with potential upward movement afterward. Gold 09:06 Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat in new tender Jordan’s state grain buyer has announced a new tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat, with offers due by October 27. This follows the closure of a previous tender on October 20 without any purchases. The tender aims to secure wheat supplies amid potential challenges in meeting previous specifications or pricing. Detailed market analysis is available through UkrAgroConsult’s AgriSupp platform. Wheat 08:31 Wheat Prices Drop to Two-Month Low on Peace Deal Hopes Wheat prices fell to a two-month low of $6.4 per bushel as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal grew. US President Donald Trump pushed for an agreement, and US special envoy Steve Witkoff is meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss proposals. Escalating attacks in the Black Sea have disrupted wheat exports, and traders are watching for progress toward a ceasefire that could ease supply disruptions. Wheat 08:19 Alberta voters reject independence in decisive referendum Alberta voters overwhelmingly rejected a move toward independence from Canada in a referendum held Tuesday, with 76% supporting unity. The result was a victory for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who emphasized national unity amid U.S. trade tensions. Separatist leaders claimed progress, noting nearly a quarter of voters backed separation. Some Albertans expressed frustration with federal treatment, while others criticized the referendum’s cost. The outcome allows Canada to focus on trade diversification and infrastructure development. Oil 07:41 Oil Surges Past $110 as Middle East Tensions and AI Power Demand Rise Oil prices surged as Middle East tensions escalated, with Brent crude crossing $110 a barrel. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a peace deal with Iran seems difficult, while Elon Musk’s comments on AI power infrastructure boosted energy stocks. The American Petroleum Institute reported a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories, and key energy companies are set to report earnings this week. Oil 07:26 Hudbay and Mitsubishi Approve Arizona Copper World Project Construction Hudbay Minerals Inc. and Mitsubishi Corporation have approved the construction of the Copper World project in Arizona, targeting first production in late 2029. The project is expected to produce 102,000 tonnes of copper annually over the first 10 years, doubling Hudbay's current production levels. The initial capital investment is $2.07 billion, with significant contributions from Mitsubishi and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. The project is projected to create over 1,000 construction jobs and generate substantial tax revenues for the local economy. Copper 06:37 Oil Prices Spike to Five-Month High Amid Middle East Attacks Global oil prices hit a five-month high on Tuesday, with Brent crude reaching $110.30 and WTI at $105.75, following attacks on oil infrastructure in the Middle East. The U.S. average gas price rose to $4.27, up nearly $1.30 since late February. The conflict has driven up fuel prices and inflation, with the U.S. importing a small amount of crude from the region. A tentative peace agreement expired in August, leading to continued attacks. Oil 06:09 Middle East Tensions Drive Oil Prices Higher Oil prices climbed on Wednesday due to concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, with Brent crude rising 1.22% to $110.13 and WTI crude up 1.11% to $98.92. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi energy facilities by Houthi militants added to market anxieties. Global oil shipping costs have surged, with the average freight rate exceeding $20 per barrel, up from $3 a year earlier. Goldman Sachs warned that these elevated costs could squeeze refiners' margins and push up refined fuel prices. Oil 05:41 Gold Declines as Oil Rally Sparks Inflation Fears Gold prices fell for a fourth straight session on Wednesday due to rising oil prices and inflation concerns. Spot gold dropped 0.2% to $4,118.18 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery declined 0.2% to $4,136.20. Investors are now looking ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting for clues on interest rate changes. Oil Gold 05:19 Japan's trade deficit hits 2.81 trillion yen amid soaring oil imports Japan recorded a trade deficit of 2.81 trillion yen ($17.8 billion) for the first fiscal half, as oil import prices soared due to the war in Iran. Exports grew 18.4% to 63.5 trillion yen, while imports surged 20.4% to 66.3 trillion yen, both setting record highs. The conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, affecting various sectors and contributing to the deficit. Oil 04:59 Middle East Tensions Drive Oil Prices Higher Oil prices rose on Wednesday due to Middle East supply concerns, with Brent crude reaching $109.64 and WTI crude at $98.58 per barrel. Attacks on vessels and Saudi infrastructure, including a fire near the Strait of Hormuz, heightened tensions. The Houthis claimed responsibility for multiple attacks in Saudi Arabia, while Iran's mediation efforts saw no response. US officials are addressing a diesel shortage as crude stockpiles are expected to have declined. Oil 04:09 Beach Energy Reports Record Revenue on Strong Production and Gas Prices Beach Energy reported record quarterly sales revenue of A$565 million, a 41% increase from the previous quarter, driven by higher production and stronger gas prices. Total production climbed 9% to 5.4 million barrels of oil equivalent, with significant contributions from key basins and the Waitsia Gas Plant. The company benefited from two LNG cargo shipments and secured crude sales premiums, despite a 4% decline in the average realized oil price. Beach Energy maintained its FY2027 production guidance and plans to invest in expansion and exploration initiatives, while warning about potential risks from proposed gas reservation requirements. Oil Natural Gas 03:39 Gold Steady Above $4,117 as Markets Await Fed Rate Decision Gold prices remained steady above $4,117 per ounce on October 21, 2026, while US gold futures edged down 0.18 percent to $4,135.10. Investors are focusing on inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, which could drive volatility. In India, MCX gold futures traded at Rs 1,46,488 per 10 grams, and silver at Rs 2,10,877 per kilogram. Analysts highlight key support levels for both metals ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement. Gold Silver 03:13 Startups Use Microbes to Extract More Copper Amid Global Shortage The world could face a 10 million metric ton copper shortfall by 2040, driving innovation in bioleaching. Endolith, a startup, uses microbes to extract more copper from low-grade ore, aiming for a 10% increase. The company’s approach leverages AI and DNA sequencing to optimize the process, though skeptics question its feasibility. Endolith has raised $23 million and partnered with major mining firms to scale its technology. Copper 02:55 European Gas Prices Drop After Hitting Four-Year Peak European natural gas prices fell sharply after hitting a four-year high of €90 per megawatt-hour, with traders taking profits. Despite the drop, prices remain elevated due to low inventories and Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Rabobank's Florence Schmit expects prices to potentially rise above €90 again soon. Europe's storage levels are critically low, with governments resisting costly support measures. Mild weather has helped storage replenishment, but geopolitical tensions and Asian demand pose ongoing risks. Natural Gas 02:23 Oil Dips as Trump Waives Russian Energy Sanctions Middle East Tensions Persist Oil prices fell on Tuesday as markets weighed an executive order from U.S. President Donald Trump waiving some sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy exports. Brent crude futures dropped to $109.06 a barrel, while WTI crude for November delivery declined to $103.32. Concerns over Middle East supply disruptions persisted after attacks on Saudi energy and military targets by Yemen's Houthis. Analysts noted that while additional Russian diesel supply could offer relief, traders remained focused on regional risks. U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week. Oil 01:52 Gold and Silver Prices Dip Amid US Rate Hike Fears Gold and silver prices fell on October 21, 2026, due to expectations of tighter US monetary policy, despite geopolitical risks and festive demand in India. Gold futures dropped 0.34% to $4,128.50 per ounce, while silver futures declined 0.52% to $57.70 per ounce. Analysts expect Indian gold prices to see a modest rise before stabilizing, with global prices under pressure from potential Fed rate hikes. Silver remains more volatile due to industrial demand factors. Investors are watching US inflation, Fed signals, and festive demand in India for further direction. Oil Gold Silver 01:20 Enbridge's $41 Billion Backlog Fuels Growth and Dividend Potential Enbridge's $41 billion secured growth backlog positions it for continued expansion, with projects like the $4 billion Sunrise Expansion Program set to enhance its existing infrastructure. The company's reliable cash flow supports both its dividend and growth initiatives, with management projecting DCF per share growth of roughly 5% annually beyond 2026. Enbridge's long track record of dividend increases and current 5.8% yield make it a compelling long-term investment. Natural Gas 00:44 Alberta's vote for Canada bolsters Carney amid US trade tensions Alberta's decisive vote to remain in Canada strengthens Prime Minister Mark Carney's position as he navigates a trade war with the US. The "Forever Canadian" campaign, led by Thomas Lukaszuk, secured over two-thirds of the vote, sending a strong message to US President Donald Trump. Carney's focus on reducing dependence on the US, particularly through a Pacific pipeline, aims to diversify trade and address Alberta's grievances. The vote also sets the stage for debates on provincial powers and constitutional changes across Canada. Carney's strong leadership has boosted his global profile, but long-term economic and trade challenges remain. Oil 00:17 East Asia Looks to Canadian Oil for Energy Security Amid Middle East Instability The Atlantic Council suggests that East Asian democracies like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea should consider Canadian oil as a hedge against Middle Eastern instability. The Pacific Link pipeline offers reliable supplies from a stable democracy, with shorter shipping times and fewer maritime risks. Investing in coker retrofits could enable refineries to process Canadian heavy oil, while South Korea is already increasing imports. The report advises prioritizing oil security over cost to mitigate risks from potential energy blockades. Oil

Tuesday, October 20

Times in UTC

23:54 Natural Gas Spot Prices Buck Futures Weakness with Strong Gains Natural gas spot prices have shown strength despite weakness in futures markets, reflecting the influence of immediate supply and demand factors. NGI's new analytics platform, Entropic, offers tools to help market participants navigate these complexities. The platform includes pipeline flow data, supply and demand insights, and forward curve prices, along with daily price indexes and real-time news coverage. Natural Gas 23:25 Shell regains favor with LNG expansion and dividend recovery Shell has announced plans to expand its Canadian LNG export operations, prompting a re-evaluation of its standing among oil majors. The company, which cut its dividend in 2020, has reduced its leverage and is focusing on the natural gas segment. While Shell is back on the list of potential investments, TotalEnergies and Chevron remain preferred choices due to their higher dividend yields and stronger dividend histories. The expansion is seen as a strategic move amid geopolitical tensions and the need for energy security. Natural Gas 22:37 Northern Star’s Gold Revenue Rises but Misses Forecasts Northern Star Resources saw a 7.2% rise in gold-sales revenue to A$1.82 billion for the September quarter but missed forecasts due to planned shutdowns. The company sold 364 thousand ounces of gold, down from 381 thousand a year earlier, despite a higher average gold price of A$4,999 per ounce. Revenue fell short of the A$1.93 billion consensus estimate, highlighting the challenges of fixed costs when production drops. The results come after Northern Star rejected a A$38.7 billion takeover offer from Gold Fields, emphasizing the need for reliable production as an independent entity. Gold 22:14 Illinois Grain Tours Bring in Over $200 Million in Sales The 2026 International Grain Tours in Illinois have generated over $200 million in sales, with projections of $120 million from Middle Eastern and Asian buyers and $85.2 million from Latin American buyers. Gov. JB Pritzker emphasized the importance of these tours for strengthening international partnerships and expanding market opportunities. Last year's tours brought in about $236 million in projected sales, highlighting the growing demand for Illinois agricultural products. Wheat Corn 21:56 Veteran Trader Sonny McNess Bets Big on Copper Futures Sonny McNess, a veteran metals trader known for big aluminum bets, has returned to the market with a major copper play on the London Metal Exchange. He has bought large volumes of October-delivery copper contracts while taking a short position in November futures. McNess, now at Hartree Partners LP, is making a strategic bet on near-term price movements in copper. His past experience in aluminum trading adds significance to this new move. Copper 21:09 Corn Futures Drop to 2-1/2 Month Low Amid Harvest Progress Corn futures fell to a 2-1/2 month low on Tuesday as dry weather sped up harvesting in the Midwest. The USDA reported 44% of the corn crop has been harvested, below the five-year average. President Trump announced an $8 billion program to support farmers with diesel costs. Commodity Weather Group expects favorable harvest conditions to continue through Friday. Corn 20:36 Gold Dips Slightly as Investors Weigh Safe-Haven Options Gold's spot price on October 20, 2026, is $4,118.10 per ounce, down from Monday's $4,164.67. Investors turn to gold as a safe-haven asset during turbulent times. Options for investing include buying physical gold, opening a gold IRA, or purchasing gold ETFs. Each method has its own benefits and considerations, such as storage needs and associated fees. Gold 20:00 Sulphuric Acid Prices Set to Keep Falling in 2027 Sulphuric acid prices, used in processing metals like copper and nickel, are expected to keep falling into 2027, with forecasts of $215 per metric ton by the fourth quarter. This decline follows a peak of $451 earlier this year and will bring some relief to market participants. Lower sulphur prices may also help copper treatment charges recover next year. The copper concentrate market has shifted from long-term contracts to index pricing, and China has resumed sulphuric acid exports to Chile after a three-month halt. Copper 19:41 Why Gold Costs Far More Than Silver Gold is more expensive than silver due to its rarity, role as a store of value, and stable demand from central banks and investors. Silver's price is tied to industrial uses, making it more volatile. The gold market is eight times larger than silver's, contributing to gold's higher price and stability. Analysts debate whether silver is undervalued, but its industrial ties and price swings present unique risks. Gold 19:07 Gold Dips Below $4,150 as US Treasury Yields Rise Gold prices fell to $4,135 on Tuesday as US Treasury yields stayed high, despite lower energy prices. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its October 28 meeting, with an 82.8% probability. Deutsche Bank noted markets are digesting stronger-than-expected US inflation data, with inflation expectations rising. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted AI as a demand shock but avoided pre-committing to policy decisions. Technical analysis shows gold remains capped below key moving averages. Gold 18:30 SpaceX’s LNG Strategy Signals Shift in US Natural Gas Market SpaceX’s use of LNG for its Starship rocket is influencing the US natural gas market, with plans for up to 30 daily launches by 2030 potentially requiring 11 million tons of LNG annually. The company is investing in pipelines and trading teams to secure supply, reflecting a broader trend where customers prioritize supply security. Analysts note that this shift is driven by rising demand for LNG exports and power generation, tightening the market. Natural Gas 18:19 Asian LNG Prices Hit $30 Amid Middle East Shipping Risks Asian LNG prices have surged past $30 per mmBtu for the first time since December 2022 due to an attack on an LNG tanker in the Gulf of Aden. Despite the incident, a QatarEnergy tanker is en route to Poland via the Red Sea. European storage sites are only 74% full, below the seasonal average, while high prices are pushing some Asian nations toward coal. Europe has limited alternatives due to its decarbonization efforts, forcing it to pay high prices for LNG. Natural Gas 17:51 Gold Surges on Strong China India Demand Ahead of Diwali Gold and silver prices jumped in London on Tuesday, supported by strong demand from China and India ahead of the Diwali festival. The Chinese yuan's 4-year high against the USD boosted bullion imports, while Indian demand pushed prices up by $5.50 per ounce. US pending home sales dropped 11.3% year-over-year, reversing an earlier gold price decline. Platinum and silver also rose, with gold ETFs expanding by 0.3% last week. SEBI's intervention in India aimed to curb bullion imports amid rising investment demand. Gold Silver 17:22 Deutsche Bank and StoneX Predict Silver Surplus Amid Weak October Deutsche Bank and StoneX have both forecasted a silver surplus, with Deutsche Bank predicting a surplus as early as 2027 and StoneX expecting a surplus of about five weeks of physical demand in 2026. The solar demand decline cited by Deutsche Bank is largely already accounted for in existing forecasts, meaning the surplus call may not significantly alter the physical balance unless solar demand falls even further. Silver has had a weak October, dropping about 6% on October 14 and trading at $56.93 as of Monday. The next key test for these predictions will come in November when Metals Focus and the Silver Institute update their forecasts. Silver 16:44 Former Fed Insider Dumps Bank Stocks for Gold Amid Economic Concerns Christopher Whalen, a former Fed insider, has sold all his bank stocks and is investing heavily in gold, precious metals, and energy stocks. He predicts rising credit costs and higher consumer delinquency rates, which will negatively impact bank earnings and stock prices. Whalen sees gold and silver as an asymmetric trade with significant upside potential and limited risk. He also notes the global shift away from dollars towards gold and silver by central banks, which could pose challenges for the U.S. economy. Whalen expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates and relaunch quantitative easing, warning about the growing national debt and the need for hard assets to protect against inflation. Gold 16:18 Equinor Adjusts Troll Project to Secure European Gas Supplies Equinor and its partners have scaled back the Troll West Electrification project to avoid production disruptions, ensuring uninterrupted gas supplies to Europe. The revised plan provides an additional 2.3 billion cubic meters of gas for 2027 and 2028 while maintaining significant emissions reductions. The decision benefits partners like Shell, TotalEnergies, and ConocoPhillips, and supports Equinor's focus on production reliability and capital discipline. Natural Gas 15:39 Eni Expands Mozambique LNG Operations with New Development Wells Eni S.p.A. plans to drill six development wells in Mozambique to supply its Coral North FLNG platform, with production starting by 2028. The move aims to increase output to 7 million metric tons per annum, leveraging Mozambique’s strategic location near high-demand LNG markets. Eni is also evaluating a third FLNG facility in the Rovuma Basin, currently in the pre-FEED stage. Other major projects in the region include TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG and ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG, both progressing toward production and investment decisions. Natural Gas 15:12 Alberta voters overwhelmingly reject independence in unity referendum Alberta voters overwhelmingly rejected a move toward independence from Canada in a referendum held Tuesday, with 75% supporting unity. Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed the result as a victory for national cohesion, while separatist leaders claimed the 25% support for separation signals ongoing dissatisfaction. The referendum was not a direct vote on independence but would have set the stage for future discussions. Some voters expressed frustration with federal policies, but the result suggests Alberta remains committed to staying in Canada. Oil 14:40 Copper Faces $332 Billion Investment Gap to Avoid 2050 Deficit BloombergNEF warns that $332 billion in new copper mine investments is needed to avoid a looming deficit that could slow electrification. Copper demand is projected to rise by 61% by 2050, with a potential shortfall of 20 million metric tons by mid-century. The report also highlights China's dominance in metals refining, raising supply security concerns. Without urgent investment, the deficit could persist for decades, impacting electric vehicle and grid deployment. Copper 14:17 Copper Market Braces for Tariff Uncertainty Under Trump Copper prices have surged due to fears of tariffs under Donald Trump’s administration, with LME prices hitting a record near $15,000 a metric ton. Traders have profited from shipping copper to the US, but analysts warn of a potential market bubble. Macquarie Group predicts prices could crash to $10,000 or rally to $18,000 depending on tariff decisions. Traders were previously wrong-footed by Trump’s selective tariffs on downstream copper products. Copper 13:37 Asian LNG Prices Hit Four-Year High Amid Tanker Attacks Asian LNG prices jumped to $30.4 per million BTU on Monday, the highest since December 2022, due to attacks on tankers in the Middle East. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an LNG carrier was fired upon near Yemen over the weekend. The strikes have disrupted exports and raised concerns about global supply stability. The incidents are part of a recent increase in attacks on oil and gas vessels in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Oil Natural Gas 13:00 European Gas Prices Hit €90 Mark First Time Since 2022 European natural gas prices have risen above €90 per megawatt-hour for the first time in nearly four years, with Dutch futures reaching €90.16. This surge, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, has also pushed Germany’s year-ahead power contract to its highest level since July 2023. The increase raises concerns about a potential energy crunch as Europe enters the winter heating season, with analysts warning of higher costs and economic challenges ahead. Natural Gas 12:39 Trafigura Sees AI Copper Demand Tripling by 2028 Trafigura Group’s head of industrial metals analysis, Henry Van, predicts that copper demand for AI infrastructure could reach 2.5 million to 3 million metric tons by 2028, up from 1 million tons this year. The forecast was shared at Bloomberg’s 2026 Base Metals event in London, underscoring the metal’s critical role in supporting AI growth. Copper 12:15 Copper Market Braces for Potential Tariff-Driven Price Crash Copper prices have surged due to fears of Trump-imposed tariffs, with LME prices hitting a record near $15,000 a ton. Traders have profited from shipping copper to the US, but analysts warn of a potential bubble. Macquarie Group predicts prices could crash to $10,000 or rally to $18,000 depending on tariff decisions. Midterm elections add uncertainty to Trump's trade agenda. Traders were previously wrong-footed by Trump's selective tariffs on copper products. Copper 11:51 Britain to defend Saudi Arabia with Typhoon jets against Houthi attacks Britain will deploy Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter jets to defend Saudi Arabia against Houthi aerial attacks. The jets will operate defensively to protect Saudi cities and infrastructure. Defence Minister Wes Streeting condemned the Houthi attacks, particularly a strike on Riyadh airport. The UK will also send an Atlas A400M transport aircraft and military advisers, expanding previous assistance. Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities have intensified, with a recent strike killing 58 people in Yemen. Oil 11:20 Copper Traders Brace for Market Shift as Tariff Fears Persist Copper prices have surged due to fears of potential tariffs under Donald Trump’s administration, creating a bubble in the market. Traders have profited from shipping copper to the US, depleting global inventories and pushing LME prices to a record near $15,000 a metric ton. Analysts warn of a possible crash to $10,000 a ton if tariffs are avoided, or a rally to $18,000 if they are delayed. Traders were previously wrong-footed by Trump’s 50% tariff on downstream copper products last year. Copper 10:38 LNGs Dominance in Maritime Decarbonisation Faces Regulatory Challenges LNG has become the leading alternative to conventional marine fuels, supported by a robust fleet and bunkering infrastructure. However, evolving regulations like FuelEU Maritime and the IMO Net-Zero Framework are challenging its dominance by shifting the focus to well-to-wake emissions. An analysis finds that LNG retains a compliance advantage, but this is narrowing and could be overtaken by e-fuel costs in the early-to-mid 2030s. The future of LNG in maritime decarbonisation depends on investment strategies and regulatory design choices. Natural Gas 10:09 Brent crude surges to five-month high amid Middle East attacks Brent crude oil prices hit a five-month high on Tuesday due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Yemen's Houthi group launched attacks on Saudi energy, airport, and military targets, including an Aramco site and the Shaybah oilfield. Reports of vessel attacks in the Gulf added to market uncertainty, driving up prices as traders factored in a risk premium. The situation highlights the sensitivity of oil markets to regional instability. Oil 09:51 Saudi Aramco and Asian refiners clash over 2027 oil contracts Saudi Aramco is locked in a dispute with Asian refiners over 2027 oil contracts due to unfulfilled purchases from existing deals, a fallout from the Middle East war. The conflict disrupted exports, forcing refiners to buy oil via the spot market instead. The standoff could delay contract finalization and impact supply chains. The situation highlights the challenges of balancing long-term agreements with market volatility. Oil 09:23 Corn Prices Extend Losing Streak Amid Weak Demand and Export Slump US corn futures fell for a sixth consecutive day, the longest losing streak since March 2025, due to harvest pressure and weak export demand. The most active corn contract in Chicago dropped 0.5% to its lowest level since August 12. Export inspections plummeted nearly 50% week-on-week to 672,500 tons, while total sales for the marketing year are down 2.3% annually. Corn 08:55 Gold Holds Near $4,165 as Key Support and Resistance Levels Emerge Gold futures (/GC) are trading near $4,164.80, with key support and resistance levels identified by the VC PMI at $4,173 and $4,176. Resistance levels include $4,195, $4,231, and $4,250, while support levels are $4,140, $4,121, and $4,103. Square 9 geometric analysis provides additional reference points, but the study is for educational purposes only. Gold 08:15 Copper Mining Faces $332 Billion Investment Gap to Avoid Future Shortfall Copper mines require $332 billion in new investment to avoid a supply shortfall of 20 million metric tons by 2050, according to a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Without this funding, the copper market faces a potential crisis that could hinder the global shift toward electrification. The report emphasizes the urgent need for capital outlays to prevent supply chain disruptions and price hikes. Copper is essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy systems, making this investment critical for sustainable development. Copper 07:50 Natural Gas Prices Face Bearish Pressure with Targets at 3.05 and 3.00 Natural gas prices are under pressure, with a current price of 3.215. The market shows bearish momentum, with targets set at 3.05 and 3.00. Stop levels are at 3.35 and 3.59. Professional traders have a 58% confidence level in this bearish outlook, citing bear flag structures and failure below the 200-day moving average. Some traders expect a potential upside after a dip, but the overall sentiment leans bearish. Natural Gas 07:07 Albertans overwhelmingly reject independence in unity referendum Voters in Alberta, Canada's oil-rich province, rejected a proposal to begin the process of potential independence, with 76% supporting remaining in Canada. The vote, delayed due to polling station issues, saw over 1.35 million Albertans participate. Supporters of separation cited mistreatment by the federal government, while critics argued the referendum was a waste of resources. Prime Minister Mark Carney had urged voters to support unity amid U.S. President Donald Trump's threats against Canada. Separatist leaders claimed the movement would continue despite the vote's outcome. Oil 06:41 Global Food Inflation Set to Worsen as Supply Shocks Pile Up Global food inflation is expected to intensify due to supply shocks and El Niño-driven droughts, with prices set to remain high into 2027. The FAO warns of record-high food prices, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where food accounts for a larger share of household spending. Supply disruptions from wars and weather have pushed wheat and rice prices up significantly, while food processors face higher costs and supply shortages. Oil Wheat 06:11 Copper Surges as Strategic Metal Demand Outpaces Gold Copper prices have surged 15.8% year-to-date and over 30% in the past 12 months, outpacing gold, which has declined. Demand from AI, power-grid investments, and defense spending is driving the rally, with experts calling copper a strategic metal. Despite tech stock volatility, copper demand is expected to remain strong due to inelastic needs in technology and national security. Potential U.S. tariffs and low Chinese inventories are adding to market uncertainty, but fundamentals remain bullish. Gold Copper 05:54 Gold Prices Dip Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Maritime Risks Gold prices in India dropped on October 20, 2026, with 24 carat gold at Rs 14,717 per gram, 22 carat at Rs 13,490, and 18 carat at Rs 11,038. The decline follows geopolitical tensions in West Asia, particularly between the US and Iran, which has led to a safe-haven rally in precious metals. The collapse of a maritime armistice and renewed military operations have increased maritime risks and driven up gold prices amid foreign exchange instability and import duty revisions. Gold 05:06 Alberta independence vote results awaited amid national unity concerns Canada is waiting for the results of a non-binding vote in Alberta on whether to hold a binding independence referendum. Prime Minister Mark Carney warned against the timing, while separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre remains optimistic. Premier Danielle Smith called the referendum but voted against independence. Foreign influence, including support from US figures, has been noted. Carney cautioned about economic risks, comparing the situation to Brexit. Oil 04:34 Woodside Resumes Scarborough Gas Project After Protest Disruption Woodside Energy Group Ltd. has resumed work on its $12 billion Scarborough LNG export project after a temporary pause caused by Greenpeace protesters. The protesters had accessed the floating production unit over the weekend, but the incident has been resolved. Woodside, Australia’s largest natural gas exporter, confirmed the restart of commissioning activities in a statement on Monday. Natural Gas 04:12 Iran War Boosts Americas' Dominance in Global Oil Markets The Iran war has tipped the balance of global oil power towards the Americas, as the region steps in to fill supply gaps caused by the conflict. Analysts suggest this shift could reshape geopolitical alliances and energy market strategies. The Financial Times reports on how the Americas' ability to quickly increase production has strengthened their influence in the global energy sector. Oil 03:34 Asian LNG Prices Soar to 2022 High on Tanker Attacks Asian LNG prices hit their highest point in nearly four years, climbing to $30.4 per million BTU on Monday. The surge was driven by attacks on tankers in the Middle East, particularly near Yemen, which have raised concerns about supply disruptions. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an incident involving an LNG carrier over the weekend, contributing to the price spike. Traders are worried about the security of key maritime routes, which could further tighten supply and keep prices elevated. Oil Natural Gas 03:24 Gold Dips as Investors Await Fed Policy Decision Next Week Gold prices declined in early Asian trade on Tuesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision next week. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,126.84 per ounce, while US gold futures dropped 0.3% to $4,146.00. Traders are pricing in an 83% chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged next week, with a 94% expectation for a December hike. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled potential for further rate increases due to inflationary pressures. Geopolitical tensions also weighed on markets after Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi targets. Gold Silver 02:31 Oil Prices Dip as Russia Sanctions Relief Counters Gulf Supply Fears Oil prices fell on Tuesday as markets weighed US President Donald Trump's executive order waiving some sanctions on Russian energy exports. Brent crude futures dropped 0.45% to $109.06 a barrel, while US WTI crude for November delivery declined 0.33% to $103.32. Concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly after attacks on Saudi targets by Yemen's Houthis, kept prices above $100 a barrel. The International Energy Agency reported that Russia's crude oil production increased in September but remained below levels from a year ago. In the US, crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week. Oil 02:25 Copper Faces $332 Billion Investment Gap as Global Metal Supply Shortages Ease BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2026 finds that nine of ten critical metals will have sufficient supply through 2050, but copper faces a looming deficit of 44% of global demand by 2050, requiring $332 billion in new mine investments. Demand for lithium and graphite is set to triple and double, respectively, due to the battery boom. China dominates metals refining, raising supply security concerns. Recycling will be essential to meet future demand, with short-term shortages possible for lithium and palladium. Copper 01:34 U.S. LNG Feedgas Demand Hits Record 20 Bcf/d Milestone The U.S. has achieved a major milestone with LNG feedgas demand surpassing 20 Bcf/d for the first time. This follows a decade of rapid expansion in LNG infrastructure, starting with the first export from Sabine Pass in 2016. The surge in demand is driven by increased export capacity and seasonal production efficiencies. Feedgas demand, which includes gas used for LNG production and terminal operations, has seen significant growth, reaching a peak of 19.31 Bcf/d this April. Natural Gas 01:06 Oil Prices Mixed Amid Middle East Tensions and U.S. Sanctions Waiver Oil prices were mixed on Monday, with Brent crude falling slightly while WTI crude rose to a five-month high. Geopolitical tensions, including Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and a tanker explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, contributed to volatility. Trading activity focused on the December contract, which settled lower. U.S. President Trump’s waiver of some Russian energy sanctions drew criticism but had limited immediate impact on supply concerns. Oil 00:49 BHP Reports 19% Drop in Copper Output Amid Disruptions BHP Group reported a 19% drop in first-quarter copper production due to lower ore grades and operational disruptions, producing 400,700 metric tons compared to 493,600 tons a year earlier. Iron ore output increased by 4% to 66.5 million metric tons, supported by strong performance in Western Australia. BHP maintained its fiscal 2027 production forecasts and noted stronger commodity prices, with copper prices up 53% year over year. The company emphasized safety after fatal incidents at some operations, and its shares fell 2.1% to A$59.22. Copper 00:26 Chile’s Copper Crisis Deepens as Mining Recession Worsens Chile’s copper industry is grappling with deadly accidents, extreme weather, and operational issues, leading to its lowest output in over two decades. Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz predicts a 7% decline in production this year, with a partial recovery expected in 2027. Aging mines, deteriorating ore quality, and labor tensions are exacerbating the challenges, raising concerns about the country’s ability to meet global demand. Analysts forecast copper prices to average $6.20 a pound in 2027, though below current levels. The industry faces structural constraints that may require heavy investment just to maintain output. Copper

Monday, October 19

Times in UTC

23:51 India-New Zealand FTA eliminates tariffs boosting bilateral trade The India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement came into effect on Tuesday, eliminating tariffs on all Indian exports to New Zealand and reducing tariffs on 95% of New Zealand’s imports into India. New Zealand has committed to investing $20 billion in India over the next 15 years. Sensitive sectors like dairy and certain agricultural products are excluded from the deal. The agreement also includes provisions for student mobility and work visas, creating new opportunities for Indian students and professionals. Bilateral trade currently stands at $2.4 billion. Corn 23:08 Gold Consolidation Reflects Capital Competition Not Bear Market Metals Focus director Matthew Piggott argues that gold's recent consolidation phase is due to competition for investment capital rather than a bear market. He believes the metal's long-term outlook remains strong despite its inability to sustain a rally. The comments come amid volatility in gold prices and have implications for related assets like GLD and GDX. Gold 22:50 LS MnM Considers Cutting Copper Processing Capacity Amid Profitability Pressures South Korean copper smelter LS MnM is reviewing a potential reduction in output due to shrinking refining margins and competition for copper concentrate. The company operates a refinery with an annual capacity of 680,000 metric tons but is considering flexible adjustments to purchases. Refining charges have turned negative, meaning smelters are paying miners for concentrate. Global copper demand is projected to rise by 50% to 42 million tons a year by 2040, but smelters face profitability challenges due to collapsing processing fees and lower sulphuric acid prices. Copper 22:13 Gold Market Consolidates Amid Safe-Haven Demand and Fed Uncertainty Gold prices are consolidating rather than entering a bear market, according to Metals Focus director Matthew Piggott. Institutional investors and central banks have supported prices around $4,000/oz, with underlying economic and geopolitical factors strengthening gold's long-term outlook. Gold futures edged lower Monday, caught in a tug of war between short-term selling pressure and safe-haven demand. Traders expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this month but anticipate a hike in December. Oil Gold 21:54 Renforth Intersects High-Grade Gold in Parbec Drillholes Renforth Resources Inc. reported positive assay results from two drillholes at its Parbec Gold Deposit in Malartic, Quebec, intersecting gold above the cut-off grade used in the 2025 Mineral Resource Estimate. The highest single sample result was 15.68 g/t Au over 0.85m, and the highest grade-thickness result was 9.41 g/t Au over 4.05m. The company plans to update the MRE internally, incorporating current gold prices and recent results. The drill program confirmed gold mineralization in previously untested areas and highlighted the nugget effect at Parbec. Gold 21:18 Natural Gas Futures Dip Amid Mixed Supply and Demand Signals Natural gas futures fell on Monday due to weaker heating demand expectations and recovering production levels, despite strong LNG feedgas demand. The November contract settled below technical support, while Appalachian pipeline flows rebounded. Analysts warn of a potential winter storage deficit, which could impact future prices. The market remains influenced by the interplay between supply and demand factors. Natural Gas 20:55 Digital Gold Market Could Triple by 2031, Says World Gold Council The World Gold Council projects the retail digital gold market could grow to $160-$170 billion by 2031 in the base case scenario, with potential for $270-$280 billion in a bull case and $70-$80 billion in a bear case. Growth depends on addressing barriers such as trust, access, cost, and utility. Structural tailwinds include population growth and rising digitally enabled investors. Regulatory momentum in key markets is seen as a positive step for the industry. Gold 20:15 Silver Struggles to Rebound as Bearish Outlook Persists Silver (XAG/USD) is up 0.38% to $57.21 on Monday but remains near last week's low of $55.38, suggesting a potential bearish continuation. Technical indicators support this outlook, with key support levels at $57.00, $56.50, $56.00, and $55.38, while resistance levels include $57.98, $60.00, and the 100-day SMA at $63.06. Silver's price is influenced by factors such as industrial demand, US Dollar strength, and geopolitical instability. Silver 19:50 Copper Boom Faces Uncertainty Amid AI Data Center Concerns Copper prices have risen 33% to US$6.53 per pound over the last year, but the boom may be ending due to concerns about AI data center construction slowdowns. The metal's demand has been driven by tech sector growth, particularly in data center infrastructure. Experts suggest the peak of the rally might already have passed if these uncertainties impact the AI sector. Copper 19:26 China Coal Output Drops 6.8% as Winter Demand Looms China’s coal production fell 6.8% in September compared to last year, totaling 385 million tons, while imports dropped 5.7% from September 2025. Coal prices have risen 24% since mid-July due to supply constraints and high demand. The IEA forecasts record global coal demand this year, driven by high LNG prices and peak winter heating needs. Natural Gas 18:55 Euro Area Inflation Hits 3.8% in September 2026 Driven by Energy Crisis Inflation in the Euro area reached 3.8% in September 2026, driven by an 18.9% surge in energy prices due to the Middle East war. Lithuania had the highest inflation rate at 6.1%, while Malta had the lowest at 2.4%. The EU and member states introduced measures to mitigate the impact, but rising costs are being passed on to consumers, worsening the cost-of-living crisis. House prices and rents also increased significantly, sparking protests across Europe. Natural Gas 18:00 Gold Dips Slightly as Investors Weigh Safe-Haven Appeal Gold's spot price on October 19, 2026, is $4,161.54 per ounce, slightly lower than Friday's price. Investors can buy physical gold from dealers like APMEX and JM Bullion or through gold IRAs, which offer tax benefits but come with fees. Gold ETFs are another option, available on platforms like Fidelity and Schwab. Gold serves as a safe-haven asset during economic turmoil but does not earn dividends or generate interest. Gold 17:51 Metals Focus Predicts Gold to Hit $6,000 and Silver Above $90 in 2027 Gold prices are struggling due to inflation and rising interest rates, but Metals Focus forecasts a 16% increase to an average of $5,330 an ounce in 2027, potentially reaching $6,000. Silver is expected to average $84.40 an ounce next year and rise above $90 in the fourth quarter. The ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices are key obstacles to renewed investment demand. Metals Focus anticipates central banks to remain substantial net buyers of gold in 2027, with seasonal physical demand providing additional support. Gold 17:00 India Gold Market Sees Premium Shift Amid Festive Demand Surge Gold in India traded at a premium last week for the first time in three months due to tightening supply and improving demand. Dealers reported premiums as high as 6.4K, driven by the festive buying season and lower gold prices. Government interventions may limit imports but are unlikely to curb India's strong demand for gold. Gold 16:47 South32 Boosts Copper Output Shifts Focus Away from Aluminium South32 reported an 11% increase in copper production at Sierra Gorda and secured shareholder approval for the sale of its aluminium operations to Alcoa. The company is shifting its focus toward copper and base metals, with analysts predicting revenue of $6.2 billion and earnings of $1.1 billion by 2029. Some analysts are more optimistic, forecasting revenue of $6.6 billion and earnings of $1.7 billion by 2029, driven by potential growth at Hermosa. The divestment of aluminium assets will concentrate attention on copper projects, with a 13% potential upside to South32's current price. Copper 16:04 Mozambique Seeks $250 Million Gas Project with Sasol and ROMPCO Mozambique is in talks with Sasol and ROMPCO to invest $250 million in a new gas project, aiming to expand infrastructure and supply more gas to South Africa. The project includes FSRUs at Inhassoro and Beira, with completion targeted by 2030 or 2031. This aligns with major gas projects led by TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Eni. The initiative seeks to position Mozambique as a regional energy hub while supporting domestic industrialization. Natural Gas 15:32 Singapore and Qatar strengthen LNG cooperation with strategic partnership agreement Singapore and Qatar renewed their LNG cooperation agreement, aiming to strengthen energy security and supply chains. The two countries agreed to elevate their bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, with Qatar supplying 25 per cent of Singapore’s LNG imports. Leaders also discussed cooperation in defence, AI, and cybersecurity, and expressed concern over Middle East stability. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong described the meeting as a milestone in bilateral relations during his visit to Qatar. Natural Gas 15:25 US Launches $12 Billion Project to Secure South American Minerals The U.S. is investing $12 billion in South America through Project Vault to secure critical minerals like lithium, copper, and rare earths, reducing reliance on China. Argentina, Chile, and Peru are key beneficiaries, with increased production and trade deals. The initiative aims to boost demand for these minerals by 2030, though some critics question its long-term impact. Copper 14:31 US Natural Gas Prices Rise on Colder Weather and LNG Demand US natural gas futures edged higher on October 19, 2026, due to forecasts of colder weather in the eastern US and increased flows to LNG export terminals. Higher demand for heating and reduced domestic supply put upward pressure on prices, though gains were limited by a rebound in production after Hurricane Isaias-related shut-ins. Natural Gas 14:02 Freeport-McMoRan bets on new chemical to boost copper leaching Freeport-McMoRan is betting on a new chemical compound to boost copper leaching from waste rock, aiming to extract 800 million pounds annually by 2030. The company has tested dozens of chemical mixtures over three years, with a new compound potentially tripling recovery rates. Freeport’s stock has gained nearly 40% this year, driven by rising copper prices and innovative extraction methods. The company also plans to resume full production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia by early 2028. Copper 13:45 Silver Prices Edge Up as Investors Weigh Volatility and Value Silver prices rose to $57.55 per ounce on Monday, October 19, 2026, marking a 24-cent increase from the previous day and a $5 gain over the past year. Despite this, silver has lost 13.13% of its value over the past month. Silver is considered a store of value during inflation but has historically underperformed stocks. Investors can access silver through physical assets or ETFs, with experts recommending a 10% to 15% portfolio allocation to the metal. Gold Silver 13:03 Japan Power Prices Jump 25% on Surge in LNG and Coal Costs Japan's electricity prices surged by over 25% this week to $0.19 per kilowatt-hour due to soaring LNG and coal costs. The country has shifted from gas to coal for power generation since the Middle East war began, driven by affordability and supply issues. LNG prices in Asia hit a four-year high at $29.30 per MMBtu, while coal prices also rose due to reduced supply from Indonesia. Maintenance at power plants ahead of winter further contributed to the price increase. Natural Gas 12:43 Silver Prices Climb 1.06% to $57.55 per Ounce Silver prices rose to $57.55 per ounce on October 19, 2026, up 1.06% from the previous close. The metal has gained 10.83% over the past year but remains 50.97% below its 52-week high. Factors like inflation, central bank policies, and global economic conditions drive silver's price movements. Investors can access silver through physical assets, ETFs, or mining stocks. Silver 12:10 Canada Military Base Fire Kills Four Soldiers Amid Global Financial and Social Unrest A fire at a Canadian military base killed four soldiers and injured 39 others, including 19 critically. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman warned of capital outflows as a key risk for India in 2027. Gold and silver prices rose on safe-haven demand, with gold futures at $4,193.60 per ounce and silver at $57.60 per ounce. Protests in France turned violent, leading to arson, looting, and mass arrests. Gold Silver 11:30 Japan’s Power Prices Jump 25% on Surge in LNG and Coal Costs Japan’s electricity prices surged by over 25% this week due to soaring LNG and coal costs. The nationwide power price reached $0.19 per kilowatt-hour on Monday. The shift from gas to coal, driven by elevated LNG prices and regional supply constraints, has pushed energy costs to multi-year highs. Coal prices have also risen, with the global benchmark up 30% compared to pre-war levels. Natural Gas 11:17 Fuel gas systems market set for steady growth in combined-cycle power plants The global fuel gas system market for combined-cycle power plants is projected to grow from $1,410.2 million in 2026 to $1,837.7 million by 2031, at a CAGR of 5.4%. The market is driven by the need for reliable fuel delivery, gas-quality management, and safe gas turbine operation. Asia Pacific is expected to lead the market, with North America being the fastest-growing region. The above-600 MW segment is projected to register the highest CAGR of 5.9%. Natural Gas 10:52 Xcel Energy Seeks Two-Year Rate Freeze Amid Rising Cost Concerns Xcel Energy has proposed freezing electric rates for two years, postponing any rate increases until at least November 2028. The plan, filed with the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, aims to offset rising costs while continuing to invest $4.5 billion in the state’s electric system. The proposal follows recent backlash over a 5.8 percent rate increase approved earlier this year. Xcel seeks early access to federal tax credits for battery storage projects to support its investments. State regulators are also investigating the affordability of utility services. Natural Gas 10:29 Why Corn Traders Are Watching ATR More Than Price Risk managers in commodities markets prioritize measuring potential price swings over direction, using tools like the Average True Range (ATR). On the daily corn futures chart (CBOT:ZC1), the ATR has doubled from around 6 to around 12 in recent months, indicating higher risk. Position sizing based on ATR helps manage risk effectively. Technical analysis is widely used beyond trading, including by risk teams and commodity buyers. Corn 09:58 Gold Holds Steady Below $4,200 as Traders Await Fresh Catalysts Gold is trading sideways on Monday, with resistance near $4,200 and support above $4,150. A weaker US Dollar is providing some support, but rising yields are capping gains. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate hikes has eased pressure on gold. Technically, gold could target $4,315 or $4,400 if it breaks above $4,230, while a drop below $4,150 may push it toward $4,000. Gold 09:16 Super El Niño Could Cut Electricity Bills This Winter The incoming "Super" El Niño, or "Godzilla" El Niño, could lower electricity bills in northern U.S. regions this winter by reducing heating demand and natural gas prices. Warmer winters in the north may offset rising costs, while southern states could face disruptions from extreme precipitation. Historical data suggests potential savings of up to 3.6 percent in some regions, though national impacts vary. The average U.S. household might save around $3.16 per month, though experts caution that past events may not perfectly predict this year’s outcomes. Natural Gas 08:39 Copper Prices Surge on Strong China Data and Supply Constraints Copper futures climbed toward $6.60 per pound on Monday, recovering from last week’s losses as stronger-than-expected economic data from China improved the demand outlook. China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, accelerating from a three-year low of 4.3% in the second quarter and exceeding forecasts of 4.4%. Industrial production also rose 5.5% year over year in September, up from 5.2% in August and surpassing expectations of 5.4%. Supply disruptions in Chile and robust demand from key industries further supported copper prices. Copper 08:15 Indian Stock Indices Lag Global Markets Over Two Years Over the past two years, India's Nifty 50 and Sensex have declined by 7.3% and 8.3%, respectively, while most global indices have gained. Precious metals like silver and gold outperformed Indian equities. South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex saw significant gains, more than doubling investments. US and European markets also posted strong returns, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and FTSE 100 leading the way. Gold Silver 07:50 Gold Presses Against Key Resistance Arc Ahead of Potential Breakout Gold Spot/US Dollar (XAU/USD) is testing the 0.5 Resistance Arc, with potential for a breakout toward the 0.618 Arc at 4,277. A sustained close below 4,143 would invalidate the bullish outlook. The market is watching for continued buying pressure to confirm the next move. Gold 07:05 Gold Climbs as Oil Softens and Fed Rate Hike Looms Gold prices edged higher on Monday due to softer oil prices, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike later this year. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,175.60 per ounce, while US gold futures gained 0.4% to $4,196.40. Analysts suggest that a sustained decline in oil prices or lower yields could further boost gold. Traders are pricing in a 92% chance of a rate hike in December, which could reduce gold's appeal. Other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium also saw gains. Oil Gold Silver 06:47 Copper Traders Brace for Potential Price Crash as Tariff Uncertainty Grows Copper prices have surged due to fears of potential tariffs under Donald Trump’s second term, with LME prices reaching a record near $15,000 a metric ton. Traders have profited from shipping copper to the US before any tariffs are imposed, but as Trump nears the halfway mark of his term, market participants are growing wary of a price crash if tariffs do not materialize. The ongoing US imports have depleted global inventories, creating a feedback loop that has driven up prices, but uncertainty over tariffs is causing traders to reassess their positions. Copper 06:20 Gold rises on softer oil as Fed rate hike speculation grows Gold prices edged higher on Monday due to softer oil prices, with investors focusing on the potential for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,175.60 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $4,196.40. The market is also looking for fresh signals on the Fed's policy trajectory. Oil Gold 05:41 WTI Crude Oil Dips from One-Month High Amid Geopolitical Tensions WTI crude oil prices retreated from a one-month high near $99.25-$99.30, slipping below mid-$97.00s amid hopes of improved supplies after US sanctions on Russia were waived. However, escalating Middle East tensions and conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to limit deeper losses. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and ongoing clashes in Yemen add to geopolitical risks supporting oil prices. Technically, WTI remains bullish above the 100-period SMA, with key support levels at $96.25, $94.37, and $92.85, and resistance at $99.29. Oil 05:04 Gold climbs as Fed hike bets fade after Warsh remarks Gold prices rose on Monday as investors reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month following remarks by Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $4,180.29 an ounce, while silver and platinum each gained 1.3%. The probability of a rate hike dropped to less than 20%. ANZ analysts expect gold to remain capped in the short term before reaching $5,000 an ounce in 2027, supported by safe-haven demand and central-bank diversification. Gold 04:52 Gold and Silver Prices Climb on MCX Amid US Rate Speculation Gold and silver prices rose on the MCX on Monday, October 19, 2026, tracking international gains as investors assessed US interest rate expectations and softer oil prices. MCX gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.24% to ₹1.48 lakh per 10 grams, while silver futures gained 0.43% to ₹2.12 lakh per kg. Lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, but the interest rate outlook remains a key factor. Indian buyers should consider international rates, currency movements, and domestic taxes, with festive and wedding demand potentially supporting the market. Traders are pricing in a 92% probability of a US Federal Reserve rate hike in December, which could weigh on precious metal prices. Oil Gold Silver 04:04 Asian Markets Slip on AI Funding Concerns and Oil Price Drop Asian markets declined on Monday due to concerns over AI's funding needs, with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's market leading the losses. A drop in oil prices supported bonds and Wall Street futures, limiting the downturn. Geopolitical tensions and earnings reports from major tech firms are in focus, with Meta and others expected to increase capital spending significantly. The 10-year Treasury yield fell, marking its largest weekly decline in over eight months. Oil 03:59 European Gas Prices Hit Highest Level Since 2022 European natural gas prices rose above €88 per megawatt-hour on Monday, the highest since December 2022, due to limited LNG supplies from the Gulf. Gas storage levels reached 74.31% as of October 18 but remain below typical levels. Middle East tensions and lower LNG flows have intensified competition between Asia and Europe for supplies, leaving prices at risk of further spikes. Natural Gas 03:23 Trump Waives Russia Sanctions Oil Prices Dip on Supply Concerns Oil prices fell on October 19 after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions on Russia, which may increase Russian fuel exports. Brent crude dropped US$1.43 to US$108.43 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 53 cents to US$100.88. The waiver, signed on October 16, suspends key sanctions under the Graham Act, with a 60-day assessment period announced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the move, warning it would hurt Ukraine. Tensions in the Middle East and attacks on commercial vessels have also impacted oil supplies. Oil 02:31 India restricts sugar-based ethanol in 2026-27 petrol blending tender India has barred sugar-based ethanol from its latest procurement tender for the 2026-27 supply year to protect domestic sugar supplies. The tender seeks bids for 11 billion litres of ethanol and reduces the incentive for maize-based ethanol to ₹68.86 per litre. The move aims to balance energy-security objectives with maintaining adequate sugar supplies amid concerns over lower output due to poor rainfall. The procurement tender covers the ethanol supply year from November 2026 to October 2027. Oil 02:04 Gold and Silver Prices Rise on Safe-Haven Demand and Lower US Yields Gold and silver prices rose on Monday, October 19, 2026, supported by safe-haven demand and lower US Treasury yields. Gold futures on COMEX climbed 0.30% to $4,193.60 per ounce, while silver futures gained 0.51% to $57.60 per ounce. The gains followed a sharp correction in domestic bullion prices last week. Investors will watch geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices, and US economic data this week. Prithviraj Kothari of RiddiSiddhi Bullions noted key technical levels for gold and silver, with gold potentially moving towards $4,200 per ounce. Oil Gold Silver 01:40 Oil Prices Near Highs Amid Ukraine Strikes and Tanker Attacks Crude oil prices hovered near recent highs on Sunday as Ukraine bombed Russian oil facilities and tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude futures fell $1.04 to $108.82 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 26 cents to $101.15 per barrel. The attacks heightened concerns over energy supply disruptions, driving market volatility. Oil 01:03 Albertans vote on independence in historic referendum Albertans vote on October 19, 2026, in a referendum on whether to pursue independence from Canada. Polls show little chance of success for separatists, but advocates plan to continue their efforts. The movement is driven by economic grievances and political tensions, with some voters using the referendum to send a message to Ottawa. Prime Minister Mark Carney warns against the risks of division, while Premier Danielle Smith opposes independence but supports the vote to address internal party issues. Oil 00:43 Venezuela targets US$76 billion in oil investments over five years Venezuela expects nearly US$76 billion in oil and gas investments over the next five years, according to acting president Delcy Rodríguez. The government has signed 61 agreements and is negotiating 44 more, aiming to create over 324,000 jobs. The investments are part of a broader effort to revive Venezuela’s struggling oil industry, which holds the world’s largest crude reserves but remains well below historical production levels. The initiative aligns with a US-backed agreement with North American Blue Energy Partners, targeting 500,000 barrels per day by 2028. However, challenges such as deteriorating infrastructure and skilled labor shortages could slow progress. Oil 00:27 Saudi-Houthi conflict escalates with strikes and disruptions in Riyadh The Saudi-led coalition and Iran-backed Houthis traded strikes on Sunday, intensifying a conflict that has disrupted life in Riyadh and Yemen. The Kingdom Centre skyscraper in Riyadh mandated remote work for office tenants following security alerts. The coalition conducted air raids on Houthi-controlled regions, while the Houthis claimed to have downed a Saudi helicopter, resulting in the first military fatalities since the war reignited in July. Egypt's parliament postponed a vote on authorizing military support for Saudi Arabia, and Iran's defense minister threatened retaliation against the U.S. and its allies. Oil

Sunday, October 18

Times in UTC

23:52 Stocks and Gold Face Pressure as Buying Power and Interest Rates Weigh on Markets The VN Index dropped 1.68% last week, closing at 1,705 points amid low liquidity and foreign investor selling. The upcoming week will be crucial as the 1,700-point level serves as a key support zone. Gold prices also faced pressure, ending the week around $4,163-$4,168 per ounce due to high yields and inflation concerns. Investors will watch US economic data for clues on the Fed's policy direction, which could influence gold's recovery potential. Gold 23:24 Brent Crude Near $110 as Middle East Tensions Persist Brent Crude oil prices hovered near $110 per barrel on Sunday, October 18, 2026, after a volatile week marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. The price fell slightly from a five-month high, despite a nearly 4% jump on Friday. West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $101 per barrel. Escalating conflicts, including a Saudi helicopter crash and Houthi attacks on key oil infrastructure, have heightened concerns, though supply levels have remained stable for now. Oil 22:35 Gold and Silver Investments Compared in 2026 Gold outperformed in 2025, with a 40% gold and 60% US equities portfolio being the best strategy. Both gold and silver hedge against inflation, but silver is more volatile, offering higher potential returns but greater risk. Historically, gold's prices have been steadier, reaching all-time highs when adjusted for inflation, while silver's inflation-adjusted prices have not surpassed the 1980 high. On 29 January 2026, silver hit $121.67 per ounce, still below the 1980 inflation-adjusted peak of $150. Gold 22:03 New Zealand LNG Proposal Advances Despite Election Pledge The New Zealand government is advancing discussions with a preferred provider for its LNG proposal, despite earlier promises to delay contract signing until after the election. Critics argue the move is underhanded and demand transparency on safety evaluations, which have been withheld. The proposed floating storage unit at Port Taranaki has raised concerns among locals about proximity to residential areas. The government aims to fast-track the project for winter 2028, but opponents insist there is no need to rush and call for broader community consultation. Natural Gas 21:30 Turkey Rules Out Natural Gas Price Hikes for Next Two Months Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that natural gas prices will not increase in October or November 2026. Household prices are heavily subsidized, with consumers paying $220 per 1,000 cubic meters compared to $1,000 in Europe. The country’s natural gas storage facilities are fully stocked, and plans are in place to expand domestic energy production. The government will continue to monitor economic conditions for future pricing decisions. Natural Gas 21:04 Three Silver Stocks to Watch Amid Clean Energy and AI Demand China’s export controls on solar technologies have drawn attention to silver’s role in clean energy and AI infrastructure. Three silver mining companies, Fresnillo (LSE:FRES), Silvercorp Metals (TSX:SVM), and First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG), are highlighted for their exposure to this demand. Fresnillo is investing heavily in growth projects, while Silvercorp benefits from global silver demand. First Majestic’s bullion arm, First Mint, aims to boost margins but faces pricing risks. Silver 20:52 Gold Trapped Between $4,100 and $4,200 as Analysts Watch for Breakdown Gold is trading near $4,165 on October 19, oscillating between support at $4,100 and resistance at $4,200. Analyst Itsadiee_Fx suggests a buyer trap may be forming, with potential for a sweep below $4,066. The metal is influenced by conflicting macroeconomic forces, including rising inflation and easing long-term yields. The analyst expects a bearish bias below $4,200 but watches for a potential reversal in the $4,060, $4,040 range. Gold 20:18 USDA Raises Crop Supply Projections in Latest Report The USDA increased its supply projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat in its October 9 report. Corn prices were lowered to $4.70 per bushel, with ending stocks rising to 1.8 billion bushels due to higher production and exports. Soybean prices remained unchanged at $12 per bushel, with a slight increase in ending stocks to 315 million bushels. Wheat prices decreased to $6.30 per bushel, with ending stocks rising to 740 million bushels, though still below last year's levels. Global production trends varied, with declines in some regions offset by increases in others. Wheat Corn 19:49 Arruda Bubbles Indicator Simplifies Intraday Trading Analysis The Arruda Bubbles indicator by FabioJimenez is a comprehensive intraday tool for analyzing order flow, trend, and market structure. It combines volume bubbles, liquidity zones, moving averages, and candle patterns to provide trading signals. The indicator works on XAUUSD but can be applied to any symbol with volume data. It includes alerts for key market events and is designed for educational use only. Gold 19:07 Australia’s Gas Export Policy Sparks Asian Trade Tensions Australia’s new gas export policy, requiring LNG exporters to reserve 20% of exports for domestic use from 2028, has sparked backlash from Asian energy giants like KOGAS and INPEX. The bill exempts existing contracts but not renewals, angering investors who argue extension options should be honored. While local manufacturers support the move to lower gas prices, analysts warn of limited immediate benefits and potential trade disputes. Natural Gas 18:51 Mining’s Future Depends on Global Cooperation and Innovation A new report from Systemic and ERM outlines three potential futures for the mining industry through 2050, highlighting the need for resilience and cooperation. The Flywheel scenario projects 18% higher copper demand with lower environmental impact, while the Fracture scenario predicts increased demand and deforestation. The Space Race scenario falls in between, driven by technological competition. The report urges decision-makers to anticipate pressures and develop adaptable strategies. Copper 18:19 Australia’s Gas Export Crackdown Sparks Asian Trade Tensions Australia’s new domestic gas reservation policy, set to take effect in 2028, requires LNG exporters to reserve 20% of their exports for local use. The policy has sparked backlash from Asian energy giants like KOGAS and INPEX, who argue that it undermines their existing contract extension rights. The government insists that contract renewals after December 22, 2025, will be subject to the new rules, despite industry concerns. Local manufacturers support the policy, hoping it will lower gas prices, while analysts warn of limited immediate benefits. Natural Gas 17:56 Nigeria Aims to Deploy One Million CNG Vehicles to Cut Transport Costs The Nigerian government is accelerating plans to deploy one million CNG-powered vehicles to cut transportation costs after the petrol subsidy removal in 2023. Minister Ekperikpe Ekpo directed officials to expand CNG infrastructure and vehicle conversions, aiming to lower fares for commuters. The success of the initiative depends on refuelling stations, affordable conversions, and reliable gas supply. The Presidential Initiative and Decade of Gas Secretariat will lead the efforts, supported by a joint industry market study. Natural Gas 17:03 France Protests Erupt as Yellow Vest Movement Resurfaces Amid Violence France is facing widespread protests and violence as students, teachers, trade unions, and Yellow Vest activists rally against rising living costs and economic inequality. Demonstrations turned violent in several cities, with reports of looting, arson, and clashes between protesters and police. French authorities have vowed to prosecute those responsible and restore order, while US President Donald Trump blamed immigration for the unrest. The protests have also sparked smaller demonstrations in other European countries. Corn 16:47 LNGPH to invest P6 billion in expanding onshore storage capacity LNGPH, a joint venture involving Manuel V. Pangilinan, Sabin Aboitiz, and Ramon Ang, plans to spend P6 billion to expand its LNG storage capacity with a third onshore tank holding 100,000 to 180,000 cubic meters. The company recently completed two 60,000 cubic meter tanks in Batangas and charters a floating storage unit from ADNOC. The expansion aims to increase storage to over a month’s supply. LNGPH’s power plants supply 18 percent of Luzon’s electricity, and its subsidiary is pre-qualified for the country’s first mid-merit natural gas auction. Natural Gas 16:17 Gold Rates in Rohtak Show Slight Fluctuations on October 18 2026 On October 18, 2026, the gold rate in Rohtak was ₹15,162 per gram for 24K gold, ₹13,888 per gram for 22K gold, and ₹11,371 per gram for 18K gold. These rates are influenced by factors such as geopolitical developments, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, import duties, and local demand patterns. Understanding the calculation methodologies helps customers verify quotations and detect potential overcharging. Buyers should utilise hallmarking to confirm the purity of their gold purchases. Gold 15:52 Pakistan’s Food Exports Surge 25% in First Quarter Pakistan’s raw food exports surged 25.31% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27, driven by higher rice shipments, reaching $1.388 billion. Rice exports increased by 55.89%, with basmati rice up 86.28% and non-basmati rice up 39.20%. Other products like meat and fish also saw growth, while imports rose by just 3.44%, with palm oil and pulses seeing declines. The government has approved wheat imports to address local production shortfalls. Wheat 15:13 Bullish Signals Emerge for Two Major Gold Miners Gold prices have fallen 22% since their January 2026 high, but two major miners, Barrick Mining (B) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), have shown bullish golden cross patterns. Analysts are optimistic about both stocks, with Barrick having a consensus price target implying over 30% upside and Agnico Eagle suggesting nearly 22% upside. Both companies reported strong Q2 earnings, and their upcoming Q3 earnings releases could provide further insights. Gold 14:47 South Korea's Trade Surplus with U.S. Nears Record $100 Billion South Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. is projected to exceed $100 billion for the first time this year, driven by strong semiconductor exports. The surplus reached $84.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, surpassing the previous annual record of $55.6 billion in 2024. The expanding surplus raises concerns about potential trade tensions with the U.S., particularly under President Donald Trump's administration, which has previously imposed tariffs on Korean products. Natural Gas 14:15 India's Economy Faces Growth and Vulnerability in Tandem The Indian economy is experiencing growth resilience but faces significant challenges, including rising household investments in gold and silver, climate-related droughts, generalized inflation, and potential impacts from a bursting AI bubble. The RBI may need to raise interest rates further to counter inflationary pressures, while foreign portfolio investors have repatriated significant funds due to global liquidity tightening. These factors could strain economic management and increase financial stress. Gold 13:56 Turkmenistan Advances Plans to Diversify Gas Exports Turkmenistan is advancing plans to diversify its natural gas exports through the TAPI pipeline and the trans-Caspian pipeline. The first section of the TAPI pipeline is 80% complete and should finish by the end of 2026, with the second section prioritized in 2027. The trans-Caspian pipeline is now considered a priority, though challenges like seabed delimitation and financing persist. Turkmenistan is hosting an oil & gas forum to attract investment, while regional energy discoveries could support the trans-Caspian project's viability. Natural Gas 13:25 Strong Demand for Gold Coast and Brisbane Businesses in Active M&A Market Buyers are actively seeking well-managed businesses in the Gold Coast and Brisbane areas, particularly in construction, manufacturing, industrial, and infrastructure sectors. Queensland recorded 120 announced transactions in the first half of 2026, with a record $11.1 billion in disclosed deal value. Recent sales in South East Queensland reflect this trend, with buyers looking for businesses with scale and strong management teams. International interest is also significant, though challenges like inflation and interest rates are making buyers selective. Gold 12:45 Ukraine Grain Prices Drop Amid New Harvest and Logistical Challenges Ukraine's grain and oilseed market saw price declines in September 2026 due to new harvests and logistical issues. Wheat, corn, and sunflower prices dropped significantly, while soybeans showed relative stability. As of September 29, Ukraine had harvested 34.3 million tons of grains and 8.4 million tons of oilseeds. The Chicago Exchange also saw a downward correction in grain futures. Wheat Corn 12:17 Vietnam Rice Export Prices Surge on Demand Recovery Expectations Vietnam's rice export prices have surged to $440-450 per ton, the highest since August, driven by expectations of a recovery in import demand. Domestic rice prices also rose slightly, with high-quality varieties maintaining their levels. The Asian rice market saw a simultaneous price increase due to supply concerns and demand recovery. Meanwhile, US grain prices fell on the CBOT due to favorable weather conditions, while world coffee prices recovered on international exchanges. Wheat Corn 11:48 Centinela mine strike ends after workers ratify new deal Workers at Chile’s Centinela mine ended a week-long strike after ratifying a new collective bargaining agreement with Antofagasta. The strike began on October 7 over demands for equal benefits among unions. The deal was approved by 94.49% of workers, ending a hunger strike by three employees. Antofagasta maintained normal production levels during the strike, which had supported copper prices due to supply concerns. Copper 11:17 Vietnam Rice Prices Climb on Export Demand Expectations Rice prices in Vietnam rose last week, with exports of 5% broken rice reaching $440-450 per ton, the highest since August. Traders expect the Philippines to resume purchases, boosting Vietnam's export target of 8 million tons this year. Asian rice markets saw price increases due to supply concerns and demand recovery expectations. U.S. grain prices fell, while coffee prices recovered on international exchanges. Wheat Corn 10:46 Fort Simpson to replace diesel plant with liquefied natural gas facility Fort Simpson, N.W.T., is getting a new power plant funded by the federal government and NTPC, shifting from diesel to liquefied natural gas. Construction will start in spring 2027 and finish by 2029-2030. The project aims to reduce emissions and avoid flooding issues. The federal government is investing over $31.3 million, part of a larger Arctic infrastructure initiative. Natural Gas 10:24 Queensland Businesses See Strong M&A Demand in Key Sectors Buyer demand for well-run businesses in Gold Coast and Brisbane remains high, particularly in construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors. Queensland recorded 120 transactions in the first half of 2026, with a record $11.1 billion in deal value. International interest is also growing, though challenges like inflation and interest rates persist. Morgan Business Sales highlights the importance of quality businesses with clean financials and strong management teams. Gold 09:46 South Korea Agrees to $350 Billion U.S. Investment Under Trump Pressure South Korea has agreed to invest $350 billion in the U.S. after pressure from President Trump, focusing on nuclear power, Alaska LNG, and Texas gas projects. While the government was initially cautious, private sector voices see this as an opportunity to enter the U.S. nuclear market and secure stakes in Westinghouse. The investment is also seen as a chance to strengthen energy security and long-term market access for Korean companies. Natural Gas 09:11 Gold Prices Hold Steady Across Major Indian Cities Gold prices in India remained unchanged across major cities on October 18, 2026. Nationally, 22-carat gold was priced at ₹13,615 per gram and ₹1,08,920 for 8 grams. Delhi saw 22-carat gold at ₹13,635 per gram and ₹1,09,080 for 8 grams, while Mumbai had slightly lower rates. Other metro cities reported similar stability in gold prices, with minor variations. The data was provided by bankbazaar.com. Gold 08:46 China boosts gold reserves amid diversification push and household demand surge China’s central bank bought 23 tonnes of gold in September 2026, its largest monthly purchase in nearly three years, bringing its official holdings to 2,410 tonnes. Gold now makes up 8.5% of China’s foreign reserves, up from 5.5% at the end of 2024. The purchases reflect efforts to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on US dollar-denominated assets amid geopolitical risks. Household demand for gold bars and coins also surged 28.4% year-on-year in early 2026 due to economic uncertainty. This trend is part of a broader shift among central banks to strengthen reserve resilience. Gold 08:17 Jio IPO, Earnings, and Crude Oil Drive Market Focus Next Week Investors will focus on quarterly earnings, crude oil prices, the Jio Platforms IPO, and foreign investor activity in the upcoming week. Jio Platforms' IPO, opening on October 21, aims to raise about Rs 30,213 crore. Banking stocks are in the spotlight after strong results from HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank. Global factors like US Treasury yields and geopolitical developments will also influence market sentiment. Oil 07:58 Soaring Utility Bills and Fuel Prices Take Center Stage in Midterm Elections Record fuel and utility prices are dominating midterm election discussions, with electricity costs rising 40% over five years and utilities requesting $23.1 billion in rate hikes this year. The AI data center boom and aging grids are contributing to the surge, while heating oil prices have spiked 74% from last year. Voters are increasingly frustrated, and elected officials are under pressure to address rising energy costs, with some states exploring smarter grid solutions. Oil 07:17 FPIs withdraw ₹52,100 crore from Indian equities in October amid global pressures Foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn ₹52,100 crore from Indian equities in October so far, driven by higher US bond yields, a stronger dollar, and rising crude oil prices. The cumulative outflow for 2026 has reached ₹3.12 lakh crore, surpassing last year's total. While there was a brief reversal in flows on October 16, experts attribute this to tactical adjustments rather than a structural shift. Sectorally, FPIs sold financial services and oil-related shares but bought consumer services. Investors will now focus on Brent crude prices, US-Iran relations, and domestic earnings. Oil 06:51 Alberta Votes on Path to Potential Separation from Canada Alberta voters will decide on October 19, 2026, whether to start the legal process toward a future referendum on separation from Canada. The separatist movement has gained traction due to federal energy policies and pandemic-era restrictions. Prime Minister Mark Carney has found support in Alberta, while separatists have also engaged with U.S. officials. The movement’s future remains uncertain, but it is expected to persist as a lever for negotiation with Ottawa. Oil 06:10 Venezuela targets US$76 billion in oil investments over five years Venezuela expects nearly US$76 billion in oil investments over five years under agreements signed with the US, including plans to drill 250 rigs. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez highlighted a recovery in oil production in Zulia state, rising from 70,000 to 370,000 barrels per day. The investments aim to revive Venezuela’s energy sector, which has suffered from underinvestment and US sanctions. Oil 05:44 Timor-Leste Set to Sign Greater Sunrise Gas Project Agreements Next Year Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta announced that the first agreements for the Greater Sunrise gas project will be signed early next year. The project, aimed at developing a multi-billion-dollar LNG plant, is crucial for Timor-Leste's economic future but faces skepticism about its viability. Analysts caution that a final investment decision is still years away, and the IMF has warned that the country's Petroleum Fund could be depleted by 2038. Woodside Energy, a key stakeholder, has projected potential LNG production as early as 2032-2035, but recent updates suggest 2034-2035. Natural Gas 05:17 TC Energy to Discuss Q3 2026 Results and Outlook in November Call TC Energy will hold a teleconference on November 5, 2026, to discuss its Q3 2026 financial results and provide an updated outlook. The event will feature CEO François Poirier and CFO Sean O’Donnell, who will outline strategic priorities and growth objectives. Analysts have a Buy rating with a C$103.00 price target, but Spark’s AI Analyst rates TRP as Neutral due to leverage concerns and valuation. TC Energy operates extensive energy infrastructure across North America. Natural Gas 04:47 Centinela Copper Mine Strike Ends With Strong Worker Approval Workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela copper mine in Chile ended their strike after approving a new contract with a 94.49% “yes” vote. The dispute involved over 700 workers and centered on equal benefits across unions. Antofagasta maintained normal production levels during the strike, which had contributed to copper market uncertainty. The resolution is expected to ease near-term price volatility, though longer-term supply concerns persist. Copper 04:05 Gold Struggles as Oil Surge and Yields Weigh on Prices Gold prices are under pressure due to strong US Treasury yields and rising oil prices, which have revived inflation concerns. The US 10-year yield is holding support around 5%, while crude oil surged on Friday amid geopolitical tensions. Central bank demand, particularly from China, could provide support for gold, but weak Chinese economic data could weigh on metals. Technically, gold faces selling pressure and needs to clear resistance near $4,223-$4,282 to confirm a bottom. Oil Gold 03:31 Saudi Coalition Intercepts Houthi Drones as Egypt Offers Defense Support The Saudi-led coalition intercepted and destroyed four Houthi drones over key regions on Saturday, amid ongoing attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities. Egypt’s president offered defense support to Saudi Arabia, while Yemen’s government reported Houthi missile strikes in Aden. Iran and Saudi Arabia continue to clash over the conflict’s resolution, with embassies issuing travel warnings and Saudi education authorities extending remote learning. Oil 03:26 Oil and LNG prices surge amid Middle East tensions and supply fears Brent crude oil hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May due to Middle East tensions and concerns over Russian diesel supplies. A missile attack on a Saudi port and a drone strike on a Russian refinery added to supply worries. Asian spot LNG prices rose to a near four-year high amid vessel attacks and competition for cargoes. European gas storage remains critically low at 74% ahead of winter. Oil Natural Gas 02:30 Saudi Coalition Intercepts Houthi Drones as Egypt Offers Defense Support The Saudi-led coalition intercepted and destroyed four Houthi drones over key regions, including Riyadh, amid escalating attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi offered defensive support to Saudi Arabia if requested, while the conflict in Yemen saw missile strikes near Aden’s presidential palace and airport. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government reported advances in Marib province, and several embassies have restricted travel in Saudi Arabia due to the heightened threats. Oil 02:11 Oil prices surge to $110 on Middle East tensions and supply fears Brent crude oil prices hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May, driven by Middle East tensions and concerns over Russian diesel supplies. Brent and WTI futures rose 3.7 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, with Brent up 4.9 percent and WTI up 10.4 percent for the week. Attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Iran's escalation in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted crude flows. A drone strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery added to supply worries, prompting the IEA and US to release additional oil reserves. Oil 01:56 War in Middle East Keeps Oil Prices High Through 2027 The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has extended into 2027, keeping oil prices elevated with Brent crude futures for January 2027 trading at $102.59 per barrel. Despite reports of recovering oil flows from the Persian Gulf, prices remain high due to distrust in official figures and costly shipping alternatives. The IEA plans to release up to 50 million barrels of diesel to address supply shortages, but long-term solutions are uncertain. Economists warn of sustained inflationary pressures, with the IMF forecasting 3.4% global growth next year but cautioning that economic resilience is fading. Oil 01:23 Gold Holds Steady at $4,165 as Dollar Weakness Balances Bond Yields Gold prices stabilized at $4,165 per ounce as a weaker US dollar countered rising bond yields. The metal has held this level for three weeks, with key support at $4,066 and resistance near $4,226. Technical analysis suggests a potential bullish reversal, but a break below $4,066 could lead to further declines. Silver and platinum also fluctuated, with silver trading between $56.97 and $57.25 per ounce. Upcoming US economic reports will influence gold's next direction. Gold 00:42 India halts sugar diversion for ethanol to curb price surge The Indian government has set sugar diversion for ethanol production to zero for the 2026-27 supply year to curb record-high sugar prices and prevent shortages. This policy shift ensures all sugar goes to human consumption, addressing weak yields in key producing states. The government remains committed to its biofuel blending roadmap, shifting to grain-based ethanol alternatives. India has already achieved a 20% ethanol blending target nationwide and is exploring higher blending options. Oil 00:02 Silver prices drop as investors weigh US interest rate outlook Silver prices fell on October 18, 2026, reversing an earlier upward trend as investors assessed US interest rate expectations. In Hanoi, prices ranged from 1,751,000 VND to 2,051,000 VND per ounce, while global prices dropped to $56.84 per ounce. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged in October but raise them in December, which could pressure silver further. Geopolitical instability may still support demand for safe-haven assets like silver. Silver

Saturday, October 17

Times in UTC

23:47 Ero Copper Downgraded to Hold Amid Mixed Analyst Sentiment Ero Copper (NYSE: ERO) was downgraded to a "hold" rating by Wall Street Zen on Saturday. The stock opened at $34.09 on Friday, down 1.9%. Ero Copper reported strong earnings for the quarter, with $0.83 earnings per share, beating estimates. Institutional investors have increased their stakes in the company. Despite the downgrade, the stock maintains a "Moderate Buy" rating with an average price target of $32.33. Copper 23:26 India Drops Sugar-Based Ethanol From 2026-27 Procurement Tender India has excluded sugar-based ethanol from its 2026-27 procurement tender, focusing instead on grain-based feedstocks like corn and rice. The decision aims to address concerns over domestic sugar availability and rising prices, as poor rainfall has impacted sugar production. The tender seeks 11 billion litres of ethanol, with a reduced incentive for corn-based supplies. The shift reflects India's effort to balance its ethanol-blending program with maintaining sugar supplies. Oil Corn 22:40 Natural Gas Futures Approach Key Resistance After Strong Recovery Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX:NG1!) are recovering strongly after defending a key demand floor at 2.476 in late April. Fibonacci projections suggest higher targets, but the asset is approaching a significant institutional supply wall. Traders should exercise caution as the convergence of these targets with a major 200 EMA could lead to a technical pullback or consolidation. Natural Gas 22:16 Assenagon Boosts Stake in Cheniere Energy Amid Positive Market Sentiment Assenagon Asset Management S.A. increased its stake in Cheniere Energy, Inc. by 21.0% in the third quarter of 2026, acquiring 53,712 additional shares. Other institutional investors also adjusted their positions, with significant investments from Virginia Retirement Systems, Saudi Central Bank, Anchor Capital Advisors, Groupe la Francaise, and Nykredit A S. Cheniere Energy's stock has seen positive sentiment due to raised 2026 guidance and operational execution, though Scotiabank slightly reduced its price target to $311. The company's shares opened at $289.15 on Friday, with a market capitalization of $59.72 billion. Natural Gas 21:43 Oman Tops U.S. as India's Leading LNG Supplier in September Oman became India's largest LNG supplier in September, displacing the United States due to increased European demand for American cargoes. India's imports from Oman rose 11.6% to 0.59 million tons, while U.S. imports fell 60.7% to 0.34 million tons. Nigeria and the UAE also ranked among the top suppliers. Wood Mackenzie noted India's effective demand-management strategy amid rising prices and robust demand. Natural Gas 21:24 UK Natural Gas Prices Soar Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure UK Natural Gas prices have surged 75.67% annually, supported by strong fundamentals and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A failed meeting between Tehran and Muscat has prolonged supply concerns, reinforcing the upward trend. Technical analysis now aligns with these fundamentals, making UK Natural Gas one of the best-backed commodities in Europe's energy markets. Natural Gas 20:52 Gold Struggles to Gain Traction Amid Market Indecision Gold prices ended the week with minimal movement, showing a -0.3% decline over five sessions. Despite moderating U.S. Treasury yields and stable monetary policy expectations, demand for gold remains weak, as seen in $37 million outflows from the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF. Technically, gold is caught in a neutral phase, with key levels at $4,320, $4,160, and $4,000. The market's indecision could continue unless Treasury yields strengthen further. Gold 20:11 Scientists Break Through Butanol Bottleneck with Lignocellulosic Biomass A new review by researchers at Huai’an University details how lignocellulosic biomass can be converted into n-butanol through ABE fermentation, addressing economic and technical challenges. The process, which uses solventogenic clostridia, faces hurdles like microbial inhibitors generated during pretreatment. Innovations in metabolic engineering, CRISPR/Cas9 tools, and consolidated bioprocessing offer solutions, with deep eutectic solvents achieving the highest butanol titers from real lignocellulosic hydrolysates. The authors argue for integrating these strategies to improve biorefinery efficiency. Corn 19:31 Bank of America Indicator Drops Below Sell-Signal Threshold The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 7.4, ending a contrarian sell signal that had been in place since May 26. The drop reflects weaker global stock markets, bearish hedge fund positioning, and softer inflows into high-yield and emerging-market debt. Global stock funds received $64.5 billion last week, while crypto funds saw $600 million in outflows. Bank of America strategists recommend a risk-off approach due to real yields, geopolitical risks, and U.S. midterm uncertainty. Gold 19:28 Singapore Explores Nuclear Energy with Small Modular Reactors Singapore is considering nuclear energy, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs), to enhance energy security and meet climate commitments. The current energy crisis in Southeast Asia, driven by geopolitical tensions, has highlighted the need for reliable, low-carbon electricity sources. ASEAN countries are also exploring nuclear energy in their future energy mixes. Experts point to the benefits of nuclear energy, including its energy density and the ability to stockpile uranium fuel. The rise of advanced reactors like SMRs, with their enhanced safety features and smaller footprint, is gaining traction globally. Natural Gas 18:50 Canadian Analysts Adjust Price Targets Across Sectors Canadian analysts on October 16, 2026, showed a cautious but selective outlook, with price target reductions for precious metals and gold mining stocks despite positive long-term ratings. Copper and base metals saw favorable revisions, while financial services and insurance faced modest cuts. Technology remained resilient, and consumer discretionary sectors had a mixed outlook. Notable adjustments included Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:CA) lowered to $338 from $403, and Shopify Inc. (SHOP:CA) raised to $283 from $254. Gold Copper 18:06 RBI Sets Premature Redemption for SGB 2020-21 Series VII at ₹14,614 per Gram The RBI has set the premature redemption price for SGB 2020-21 Series VII at ₹14,614 per gram, with the redemption date fixed for October 19, 2026. Investors who subscribed offline will see a 189.33% return, while online subscribers with a discount will gain 192.22%. The bonds also offer a fixed interest of 2.5% per annum, adding to the total returns. The redemption price is based on the average gold prices from October 14 to October 16, 2026. Gold 17:47 Bolivia Faces Energy Crisis as Natural Gas Reserves Deplete Bolivia is experiencing a severe energy crisis due to dwindling natural gas reserves and years of underinvestment in the gas industry. The country's proven reserves stand at 3.7 trillion cubic feet, with gas production falling by nearly 60% over the last decade. Economic instability has followed, with inflation soaring and the cost of imported goods becoming unaffordable. The government has secured a $1.9 billion loan from the IMF, which requires strict austerity measures, including cutting fuel subsidies. Experts warn that Bolivia could become a net fossil gas importer by 2030, highlighting the need for economic diversification and investment in renewable energy. Natural Gas 17:04 U.S. Treasury Yields Hit Two-Decade Highs Amid Shifting Investor Sentiment The U.S. government faced higher borrowing costs in a recent Treasury auction, with yields reaching their highest levels in decades. Foreign investors, particularly China and Japan, showed reduced interest, while hedge funds increased their exposure. Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative to conventional money persists, but its volatility makes it unsuitable for long-term savings. Cash remains crucial for liquidity but loses value over time due to inflation. Gold 16:33 Natural Gas Tests Support in Rising Wedge Channel Natural Gas is trading within a rising wedge channel on the 1-hour chart, retesting support at 306-307 after a recent rally. The EMA 55 offers additional support near 300-295, with rising volume on the dip. If support holds, the price may rebound to 315-322, but a breakdown could lead to further declines. Natural Gas 16:11 Grain Markets Face Shift as Weather Improves and USDA Report Dims Bullish Outlook Grain markets are shifting as improving weather conditions in the U.S. Plains and South America challenge recent bullish trends. The U.S. has produced record soybean and near-record corn crops, while wheat production risks are already priced in. The October USDA report estimated U.S. corn production at 16.034 billion bushels, higher than expected. South American weather conditions over the next 60-90 days will be critical for soybean and corn prices, with favorable planting moisture supporting early growth but potential risks from excessive rainfall or later heat. Wheat Corn 15:44 Metals Recover After Volatile Week Driven by Fed Policy and Market Shifts Metals including copper, aluminum, and zinc rebounded after a volatile week influenced by US inflation and AI stock selloffs. Copper ended a three-day decline, aluminum recovered from its lowest close this year, and zinc jumped 1.5%. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy remains a key driver, with markets pricing in a quarter-point rate hike by year-end. Citigroup sees little change in copper and aluminum prices over the next three months, citing elevated positioning and supply growth expectations. Copper 15:06 Perseus Mining Surges 23.6% as Gold Focus Pays Off Perseus Mining's stock has surged 23.6% over the past year, with its current price of A$6.25 reflecting optimism about revenue growth and higher profit margins. The company's H2 2026 results showed strong performance, but analysts caution that its valuation depends on stable gold prices and minimal West African risks. The article also highlights an alternative investment opportunity in crop nutrient mining. Gold 14:44 Grain Bull Market Faces Pressure as Weather Conditions Improve Commodity expert Jim Roemer suggests the grain bull market may be ending due to improving rainfall in the U.S. Plains and favorable South American conditions. The USDA's October report estimated U.S. corn production at 16.034 billion bushels, surprising traders. Roemer warns of potential selling pressure from large speculative net-long positions and highlights the importance of the next 60-90 days for South American weather. While wheat production was severely affected last spring, easing drought conditions could shift market sentiment. Wheat Corn 14:20 Gold Struggles to Find Direction Amid Market Indecision Gold ended the week with no clear trend, moving just -0.3% over five sessions. Despite U.S. Treasury yields moderating, demand for gold remains weak, as shown by outflows from the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF. Federal Reserve comments have tempered expectations of a rate hike, reinforcing policy stability. Technically, gold is caught in a neutral phase with key levels at $4,320, $4,160, and $4,000. If yields rise again, the outlook could worsen. Gold 13:44 US Pushes World Bank to Lift Oil and Gas Financing Ban US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called on the World Bank Group to end its prohibition on financing upstream oil and gas projects, arguing that reliable energy is essential for economic growth in developing countries. During the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in October 2026, Bessent advocated for a technology-neutral approach to energy financing and supported the goal of extending energy access to 300 million more people in Africa. The US also announced contributions to a nuclear energy trust fund and urged reforms in the World Bank's lending and procurement policies. Natural Gas 13:01 Canadian Grain Commission Reports Mixed Trends in Weekly Grain Handling The Canadian Grain Commission's weekly report for October 11, 2026, details grain handling activities, showing mixed trends in commercial stocks, producer deliveries, terminal receipts, exports, and domestic disappearance. Wheat and durum stocks decreased slightly, while canola stocks increased. Producer deliveries varied, with wheat and durum deliveries dropping. Exports of wheat and durum rose, while domestic disappearance saw a decrease in most categories. Wheat 12:44 Canada’s Spring Wheat Quality Surpasses Forecasts Despite Rain Concerns Canada’s spring wheat crop quality has exceeded expectations due to favorable weather and harvest progress. Concerns about lower-quality grain from heavy rainfall have lessened, though protein levels vary by region. Export logistics remain stable, but farmers are reluctant to sell at current prices. As of October 15, the price of high-protein wheat was $300.38 per ton, down slightly from the previous session. Wheat 12:05 Gold Dips on Inflation Data but Schiff Sees Buying Opportunity Gold prices dropped this week after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data, but economist Peter Schiff called the dip a buying opportunity. The September CPI rose 3.7%, producer prices jumped 6.3%, and import prices increased 1.1%. Traders sold gold anticipating Fed rate hikes, but Schiff argues the Fed has already lost control of inflation. Analysts predict further declines in gold as the Fed continues tightening, while Schiff believes persistent inflation could eventually favor gold. Gold 11:53 BlackRock Criticizes Gold Miners for Reckless Share Buybacks BlackRock's Evy Hambro criticized gold miners for reckless share buybacks, totaling $12 billion across four major companies. He argued that capital should instead be invested in new production. BlackRock remains bullish on gold due to government debts and currency depreciation. Gold futures edged higher on Friday, ending the week with a slight decline. Gold Silver 11:06 Silver Holds Near $50 Amid Supply Deficits but Faces Bearish Outlook Spot silver is trading around $57.50 per ounce, supported by physical supply deficits near $50. Demand is strong from solar panel manufacturing, electric vehicles, and AI data centers, but elevated prices have increased scrap recycling and industrial substitution, easing supply tightness. The short-to-medium term outlook is bearish, with technical indicators showing negative momentum. Sticky inflation and elevated real yields from delayed Fed rate cuts are putting downward pressure on silver. Silver 10:46 Austrian-backed company revives Chile copper mine amid global shortage A US company founded by Austrian investor Cevdet Caner is boosting copper production at Chile's Tres Valles mine to address a global copper shortage. GCR plans to start underground production by year-end, targeting 30,800 tons annually, while also processing ore from local small miners. The mine faces challenges, including environmental charges and unpaid supplier bills, but remains crucial for meeting rising copper demand. GCR projects peak annual earnings of $157 million and revenues of $238 million, with plans to restart another mine around 2030. Copper 10:03 IMF Calls for Support for Poor Nations Amid Rising Debt and Inflation The IMF has called for increased support for low-income nations facing high inflation, rising debt, and the economic impacts of global conflicts. At the annual meetings in Bangkok, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted the need for debt restructuring and targeted spending to protect vulnerable populations. Low-income countries now spend 8 to 14 percent of their revenue on debt repayments, up from previous years. The IMF is also working on loan programs for Iraq and Lebanon. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan warned that ongoing conflicts could further disrupt trade and exacerbate commodity price pressures. Oil 09:40 Carney Warns Albertans Against Separation Ahead of Referendum Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a final appeal to Albertans ahead of a referendum on potential separation, warning of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities. He campaigned alongside Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who opposes independence but called the vote. Polls show 22% of Albertans support separation, a figure Smith says is still too high. Carney and Smith remain divided on other issues, including immigration and provincial powers, which are also on the ballot. The referendum will decide whether Alberta should begin the legal process toward a future independence vote. Oil 09:13 U.S. Natural Gas Market Faces Volatility Amid Steady Production The U.S. natural gas market is experiencing volatility due to seasonal demand and geopolitical factors, while production levels remain steady. The latest EIA report shows a decline in inventories due to increased winter consumption. The growing role of LNG in global trade is reshaping market dynamics, making it a key area of focus for investors. Natural Gas 08:46 Four Tons of Stolen Copper Seized in Downtown LA Sting A law enforcement operation in downtown Los Angeles led to two arrests and the seizure of four tons of stolen copper, valued at $102,000. The operation, conducted by the California Department of Justice, LAPD, and LASD, aimed to combat the rising issue of copper wire theft, which has caused widespread power outages and public safety concerns. Authorities emphasized the broader risks of such thefts, including disruptions to emergency services and critical infrastructure. Residents were urged to report any suspicious activity to help prevent future incidents. Copper 08:05 TSX Futures Climb as Metals Rally Counters Oil Slump TSX futures rose on Friday as metals prices climbed, offsetting oil weakness. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem cautioned about energy-price pressures on interest rates, though no hike is expected on October 28. Brent crude futures hovered above $100 a barrel, with the energy sector up over 58% this year. Canadian home sales fell further in September due to higher mortgage rates. Global markets stabilized after a tech selloff, with receding bond yields offering support. Oil Gold 07:39 Houthi Threats and Economic Shifts Reshape Saudi Arabia's Sporting Dreams Cristiano Ronaldo's Al-Nassr team won a delayed Asian Champions League game amid Houthi missile threats, highlighting the instability affecting Saudi Arabia's sporting ambitions. Several high-profile events have been postponed or canceled, and plans for the 2034 World Cup stadiums are being scaled back. Yasir al-Rumayyan, chair of PIF, emphasized the need for economic diversification to avoid reliance on oil. The future of Saudi Arabia's sporting investments depends on resolving geopolitical conflicts and creating jobs for its youthful population. Oil 07:15 Wheat Prices Slide as Export Sales Drop and Speculators Adjust Positions Wheat prices across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis contracts declined on Friday, with December contracts showing weekly losses. USDA reported a significant drop in wheat export sales for the week of October 8, with Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and Mexico as the top buyers. CFTC data indicated increased short positions in Chicago wheat and reduced long positions in Kansas City wheat. FranceAgriMer noted that 15% of France’s wheat crop had been planted by October 12. Wheat 06:53 Corn Futures Drop as Speculative Longs Exit and Export Sales Rise Corn futures fell on Friday, with December contracts down 5 ½ cents and the national average cash corn price at $4.35. The USDA reported strong export sales, including a private sale to Japan and significant purchases by Mexico and South Korea. Managed money reduced their net long position in corn futures by 86,482 contracts. China set their 2027 import tariff rate quota at 7.2 million metric tons. December 2026 corn closed at $4.74 1/4, while March and May 2027 contracts also saw declines. Corn 06:16 Jewellery Stocks Mixed Ahead of Festive Season and Q2 Results Jewellery stocks are entering the festive season with mixed performance, as recent business updates show varying results. Investors await September quarter results, weighing sustainability against elevated gold prices and economic uncertainties. Sky Gold and Diamonds shares surged 56%, while PC Jeweller gained 40% and Kalyan Jewellers advanced 20%. Motilal Oswal expects sales, EBITDA, and profit after tax growth of 23%, 26%, and 27%, respectively, in Q2FY27, with a strong outlook for the second half of FY27. Gold 05:39 IGX Approved for LNG Capacity Booking Platform The Indian Gas Exchange (IGX) has received approval to create a capacity booking platform for LNG import terminals. The platform will centralize the listing and booking of unused regasification capacity, improving transparency and efficiency. Many terminals have low capacity utilization, and the platform aims to attract more LNG cargoes by discovering lower regasification charges. The IGX platform will operate alongside existing bilateral agreements, offering an additional booking option. Natural Gas 05:08 Cotton Futures Post Modest Gains Amid Mixed Market Data Cotton futures saw modest gains on Friday, with contracts rising between 10 and 21 points. The USDA reported a decline in cotton sales for the week ending October 8, down 11.12% from the previous week. Shipments were down 13.11% weekly but up 0.94% year-over-year. The Cotlook A index increased by 20 points to 91.45, and ICE certified cotton stocks fell by 2,627 bales. December 2026 cotton futures were at 80.27, up 21 points. Oil 04:31 Treasury Yields Hit Two-Decade Highs as Safe Assets Face Uncertainty The U.S. government faced higher borrowing costs in a September 2026 Treasury auction, with yields hitting two-decade highs. Foreign investors showed reduced interest, while hedge funds increased their exposure. Rising yields and inflation risks threaten the stability of government bonds, making traditional safe assets less reliable. Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative persists, but its volatility remains a concern. Cash offers liquidity but no protection against inflation, highlighting the challenges of long-term savings in today's financial environment. Gold 04:09 ExxonMobil's Strong Financials Buffer Against Oil Market Volatility ExxonMobil's strong balance sheet, with a low debt-to-capitalization ratio of 13.73%, provides a cushion against oil price volatility. The company's financial stability allows it to secure favorable debt terms and continue rewarding shareholders. Chevron and EOG Resources also have robust financials, with debt-to-capitalization ratios of 15.94% and 19.92%, respectively. ExxonMobil's stock has gained 55.6% over the past year, and its valuation metrics indicate a positive outlook for the future. Oil Natural Gas 03:38 Missiles Strike Aden Airport as Yemen Conflict Escalates Two missiles struck the Aden airport in Yemen on Friday night, blamed on Iran-backed Houthi rebels. This is the second attack in less than 10 days, with no casualties reported. The Houthis have escalated their attacks, targeting Saudi airports and oil facilities, disrupting flights and killing 19 people. The conflict has intensified Yemen’s civil war, with the Saudi-led coalition launching an offensive to retake strategic land near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Civilians in cities like Taiz continue to suffer amid the escalating violence. Oil 03:12 China’s Cheaper Chicken Exports Challenge Brazil’s Global Market Share China’s chicken production is projected to grow significantly, leading to increased exports and a stronger position in the global poultry market. The country’s exports are already undercutting traditional suppliers like Brazil, with prices 10% to 20% lower. The USDA forecasts China will become the world’s third-largest chicken exporter by 2027, posing challenges for competitors. Companies like Wintop Food are benefiting from rising international demand, driven by cost advantages. Brazilian exporters face additional hurdles, including regulatory issues in Europe. Corn 02:34 Brent Crude Surges to $110 as Wars Disrupt Oil Supplies Brent crude oil hit $110 per barrel on Friday, the highest since May 20, due to ongoing wars disrupting global energy supplies. WTI also topped $100 for the first time since Sept. 21. Gasoline and diesel prices have risen significantly, with Americans spending $135 billion more on fuel since March 1 compared to last year. President Trump’s efforts to ease costs face obstacles as Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries. Oil 02:18 Brent crude tops $110 as Middle East tensions and hurricanes drive oil prices higher Brent crude oil prices crossed $110 a barrel for the first time since May, closing at $109.86 on Friday, October 16. The surge was driven by escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing strikes in Saudi Arabia, and continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine. US crude also rose above $101 a barrel, with Hurricane Isaias contributing to inventory declines. Despite the tensions, crude exports remained strong, though below pre-war levels. Oil 01:31 Gold Prices Edge Higher Amid Weak Dollar and Lower Treasury Yields Global gold prices rose slightly on October 17th to $4,165 per ounce, ending a three-session decline, supported by a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields. Domestic prices in Vietnam remained unchanged. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and inflation concerns continue to pressure gold, though demand from Chinese central banks and investors provides support. Experts predict volatility ahead of the Fed's policy meeting, with key support seen at $4,000 - $4,100 per ounce. Gold 01:17 Oil prices surge to US$110 on Middle East tensions and supply fears Brent crude oil prices hit US$110 a barrel for the first time since May, driven by Middle East tensions and supply fears. Brent and WTI futures rose 3.7% and 3.5% respectively, with weekly gains of 4.9% and 10.4%. Attacks on Saudi infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz, along with Ukraine's strike on a Russian refinery, fueled supply concerns. The International Energy Agency and the US announced plans to release additional oil reserves to ease market pressures. Oil 00:34 Brent Crude Hits $110 as Global Conflicts and Supply Fears Escalate Brent crude oil hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May 2026 due to escalating conflicts and supply concerns. The price surge was driven by attacks on major oil export regions and ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf. US lawmakers introduced a bill to block a deal with Russia to release diesel, reflecting opposition to measures that could benefit Russia’s war efforts. Analysts are closely watching for signs of escalation, with the US drawing from emergency stockpiles to manage prices. Crude oil prices have risen over 75% this year due to global conflicts. Oil 00:05 Brent Crude Hits $110 on Middle East Tensions and Supply Fears Brent crude oil prices hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over Russian diesel supplies. Brent and WTI futures rose 3.7% and 3.5% respectively, with weekly gains of 4.9% and 10.4%. Attacks on Saudi and Iranian infrastructure, along with a drone strike on a Russian refinery, heightened supply fears. The International Energy Agency and the US are releasing additional oil reserves to mitigate the impact. Oil

Friday, October 16

Times in UTC

23:42 USDA confirms major corn and soybean exports to Japan and China The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed export sales of 558,000 metric tons of soybeans to China and 127,000 metric tons of corn to Japan for the 2026-27 marketing year. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins reported that U.S. soybean sales commitments had reached 20 million metric tons, the strongest start in over three years. Chinese state buyers made significant soybean purchases ahead of Oct. 16, following a meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The American Soybean Association urged China to meet its purchase commitments and address trade barriers. Corn 23:06 Copper Lake Closes $5 Million Private Placement for Exploration Copper Lake Resources Ltd. (CPL) closed a $5.0 million private placement, issuing 33,333,323 units at $0.15 with 24-month $0.20 warrants. The funds will support exploration at Marshall Lake and working capital. The placement increases the share count, which could pressure the stock price until absorbed. Insiders bought 1.47 million units, signaling confidence. Future catalysts depend on drill results and project developments. Copper 22:34 Grains Slide on Fund Selling and Harvest Pressure Grains ended the week lower, with soybeans and corn hitting fresh lows due to fund selling and harvest pressure. Soybeans were weighed down by a lower-than-expected NOPA crush figure and favorable planting conditions in Brazil. Corn faced pressure from USDA's increased supply estimates and lagging exports, while wheat also declined amid poor export data. Analysts noted that while demand remains, technical and fundamental factors are keeping prices under pressure. Wheat Corn 22:12 TC Energy to Discuss Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 5 TC Energy Corporation will host a teleconference and webcast on November 5, 2026, to discuss its third-quarter financial results and provide updates on its financial outlook. François Poirier, CEO, and Sean O’Donnell, CFO, will lead the discussion, covering strategic priorities and growth objectives. The event will be available via teleconference and live webcast, with a replay option afterward. TC Energy is a major player in North American energy infrastructure, moving significant amounts of natural gas and connecting LNG exports to global markets. Natural Gas 21:43 Western Canada Grain Prices Vary Widely by Region in October 2026 The Western Producer published grain prices for Western Canada as of October 16, 2026. Prices vary by region, with the highest canola price in Eastern Manitoba at 753.30 CAD per metric tonne. Producers are encouraged to check with multiple grain companies for accurate basis levels in their areas. The data, provided by PDQ, highlights regional price differences to help inform pricing and sales decisions. Wheat 21:16 Gold and Silver Face Volatility but Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discussed the gold and silver outlook, noting gold's tight trading range between $4,050 and $4,200 and the potential for a sharp downward move. Silver has broken below $60, trading around $55.77, due to its industrial-demand sensitivity. Despite near-term volatility, CPM expects higher precious metals prices in the coming months, influenced by factors like inflation, interest rates, and stock market risks. Gold Silver 20:33 India Gold Prices Turn to Premium as Jewellery Demand Rises Gold prices in India have swung to a premium for the first time in over three months, driven by a price pullback that boosted jewellery demand ahead of the festive season. Dealers quoted premiums of up to $7 an ounce, while imports fell to $1.8 billion in September. Meanwhile, demand in China remained subdued due to volatile spot gold prices. International spot gold prices edged higher but faced a marginal weekly decline. Gold 20:17 Natural Gas Futures End Week Lower Amid Bearish Sentiment Natural gas futures ended the week on a bearish note due to recovering production and weak heating demand. November futures declined, though the exact figure was not specified. An outage is expected to be resolved by Saturday, and a short-lived cold snap is anticipated. The market remains uncertain as supply and demand dynamics continue to evolve. Natural Gas 19:38 Silver Drops Below $60 as Bears Eye $55 Target Silver prices are set to finish the week lower after falling below $60.00, with a weekly low of $55.38. The price is currently near $57.00, down 0.83%. Bears target $55.00, with further support at $54.77 and $54.39. A bullish reversal would require clearing $59.37 and $60.00, with resistance at $63.06 and $63.98. The metal's price is influenced by safe-haven demand, interest rates, the US Dollar, and industrial use. Silver 19:26 AI Selloff Creates Buying Opportunity for Copper Stocks A selloff in AI-linked stocks has affected copper producers, potentially offering a long-term investment opportunity. Goldman Sachs highlights AI expectations as a key driver of copper prices, while S&P Global predicts a substantial copper supply gap by 2040. The article favors established producers like Freeport-McMoRan over speculative developers due to rising capital costs. Copper 18:42 AI and LNG Drive Growth for These Three U.S. Energy Stocks Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, identified Entergy, Energy Transfer, and Cheniere Energy as top U.S. energy stocks. Entergy benefits from AI-driven electricity demand, Energy Transfer offers a seven percent yield with growth potential, and Cheniere Energy is supported by high European natural gas prices and long-term contracts. Thummel highlighted the sector’s strong performance on the S&P 500 and the importance of selective stock picking. Natural Gas 18:29 Black Sea Attacks Test NATO and EU Resolve Against Russian Hybrid Warfare The war in Ukraine has expanded into the Black Sea, with drone attacks on merchant ships near Bulgaria and Romania, resulting in nearly two dozen sailors killed or missing. The incidents, attributed to Russia, have alarmed NATO members and prompted discussions on deploying anti-drone defenses. The EU and Turkey are working to secure the region, crucial for global grain exports and European stability. The attacks highlight Russia's use of hybrid warfare tactics to test EU and NATO resolve. Wheat 17:57 Corn Futures Volatile After USDA Yield Revision and Dollar Strength The USDA's revised corn yield estimate of 181.2 bushels per acre sparked market volatility, suggesting a larger-than-expected crop. However, some traders doubt the USDA's figures, preferring the Pro Farmer Crop Tour's lower estimate. The strengthening US dollar is also pressuring corn futures, which recently fell below $4.80 after surpassing $5.20. Historical patterns and seasonal trends suggest potential short-term support, but long-term uncertainty remains due to speculative positioning and market liquidation. Corn 17:23 METI convenes global dialogue on resilient copper supply chains The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) hosted the Second Public-Private Dialogue on Robust and Resilient Copper Supply Chains in London on October 16. Representatives from 14 countries and 19 companies discussed measures to diversify smelting capacity and secure sustainable copper supply chains. They highlighted the need for long-term commercial relationships and investment in copper mine development to meet rising global demand. METI committed to supporting the sustainable development of the copper industry to ensure stable supply. Copper 16:41 Silver Prices Climb 2.48% on October 16 2026 On October 16, 2026, the spot price of silver rose 2.48% to $57.20 per ounce, up from $55.81. This follows a 7.68% increase over the past year. Despite the recent gain, silver is still 51.28% below its 52-week high of $117.39. Prices have dropped 3.93% in the past week and 10.15% over the past month. Factors like inflation, central bank policies, and global economic conditions influence silver's price movements. Silver 16:02 Gold Rebounds as US Bond Yields Decline Sharply Gold initially fell but rebounded as US bond yields declined sharply. The US CPI rose to 3.7%, increasing Fed rate hike expectations before yields dropped again. Fed Chair Warsh's speech further lowered yield expectations, supporting Gold's recovery. Analysts note Gold's sensitivity to bond market reactions, with technical resistance at $4,190-$4,240. Gold 15:57 Northeast Natural Gas Forwards Retreat Ahead of Winter Heating Season Northeast natural gas winter forwards have declined ahead of the heating season due to a federal forecast favoring above-normal temperatures. However, traders are still pricing in the risk of sharp price increases during cold spells, maintaining substantial premiums to Henry Hub. The outlook is shaped by a strong El Niño, which has caused the Algonquin strip to fall by 15.4 cents, while polar vortex conditions could favor market stability. Natural Gas 15:03 Brazil forecasts 1.4% rise in 2026-27 crop production Brazil's National Supply Co. (Conab) projects a 1.4% increase in total crop production for 2026-27, reaching 367.1 million tonnes. Soybean production is forecasted to rise by 0.7% to 181.6 million tonnes, with exports up 1.5%. Corn production is expected to grow by 2.4% to 148 million tonnes, driven by increased ethanol use. Rice production is projected to decline by 2.9%, while wheat production is forecasted to drop by 27%. Wheat Corn 14:49 TSX Futures Gain as Metal Prices Support Miners Canadian stock market futures rose on Friday due to higher metal prices, with silver, copper, and gold supporting mining stocks. The oil rally slowed, easing pressure on credit-sensitive stocks. Bond yields increased but stayed below recent peaks. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that elevated energy prices could make future rate hikes more difficult, though markets expect a hike at the next meeting. Gold Copper 14:05 US Corn Yield Forecast Rises Sharply in October Report The USDA's October Crop Production report raised the 2026 US corn yield estimate by 2.7 bushels per acre, surprising traders who had expected a weaker harvest. Late-season rains allowed for more accurate measurements, leading to a 1.5% increase in production forecasts. December corn futures dropped 4.1% after the report, settling at $4.79¾ per bushel. Analysts suggest the September forecast may have been too low, with the October adjustment bringing estimates back in line. The next report is due November 10. Corn 13:36 Gold Reaches $4,168 per Ounce Amid Market Volatility On October 16, 2026, gold priced at $4,168 per ounce, up $21 from the previous day but down $86 from a year ago. It has fallen 4.10% over the past month and 2.02% year-over-year. Gold is seen as a stable asset during economic uncertainty, with various investment options available, including ETFs and physical gold. Experts suggest gold for portfolio diversification amid market volatility and inflation. Gold 13:09 Copper mines revived amid shortage fears and rising demand Copper mines worldwide are being revived due to expectations of a structural shortage, with nearly a million tons of potential annual production from restarts by 2030. Sibanye-Stillwater plans to restart the Mt Lyell mine in Tasmania, spending $340 million to ramp up to 26,000 tons of annual production by 2029. Record copper prices and long-term demand projections are driving these restarts, though challenges like environmental rules and political issues remain. Global copper demand is projected to rise 50% by 2040, but even with restarts, a structural shortfall of 10 million tons is expected. Copper 12:55 Coal Plants Profit as Gas Prices Surge in Europe Europe's remaining coal-fired power plants are experiencing a surge in profitability due to soaring natural gas prices and increased demand for conventional energy. In Germany, lignite coal profitability has jumped to €64 per megawatt-hour this month, up from nearly zero a year ago. The shift is driven by colder weather and declining solar output, complicating Europe's efforts to phase out coal. Natural Gas 12:11 Equatorial Guinea Revises Oil Law to Reverse Production Decline Equatorial Guinea will pass a new hydrocarbon law next week to boost oil exploration and reverse an 85% production decline since 2020. The law aims to offer more competitive and flexible terms for oil companies. Minister Antonio Oburu Ondo emphasized the need to restart drilling campaigns. The country, OPEC’s smallest member, hopes to attract investment to stabilize its oil output. Oil 11:51 Uganda Set to Begin Oil Production by June 2027 Uganda is preparing to start oil production by June 2027, marking the end of nearly two decades of planning. This development aims to enhance East Africa's energy self-sufficiency amid disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Kristina Kasebayo of the Uganda National Oil Company discussed the final stages of this process at Africa Energy Week. The move is expected to strengthen the region's energy security and economic stability. Oil 11:25 Carney warns Alberta against independence ahead of crucial referendum Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned in Alberta ahead of a non-binding independence referendum, warning that separation would lead to economic uncertainty. Polls show less than 25% support secession, but Premier Danielle Smith called the vote to address the issue. Carney supports Alberta's oil industry growth within a united Canada, contrasting his stance with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's policies. Experts highlight Alberta's economic motivations for separatism, while Carney cautioned against foreign interference in the vote. Oil 10:46 Gold and Silver Rebound on MCX After Sharp Sell-Off Gold and silver futures on the MCX rose on October 16, recovering from a previous sell-off due to a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields. MCX gold futures climbed 0.63% to ₹1.48 lakh per 10 grams, while silver futures gained 1.30% to ₹2.13 lakh per kilogram. The recovery was supported by lower US interest-rate expectations and a softer dollar, though volatility remains possible. Some fund houses have restricted fresh subscriptions to gold ETFs to moderate demand and manage rupee pressure. Gold Silver 10:18 Silver prices climb on October 16 amid mixed year-to-date performance Silver prices rose on October 16, trading at $57.91 per troy ounce, up 0.84% from the previous day. The Gold/Silver ratio decreased to 72.32, indicating a slight shift in relative valuation. Despite the recent increase, silver has fallen 18.54% since the beginning of the year. Factors like industrial demand, geopolitical events, and the US Dollar's strength influence silver's price movements. Gold Silver 09:52 Oil Prices Dip but Head for Weekly Gain Amid Middle East Supply Fears Oil prices eased on Friday but are still on track for a weekly gain due to Middle East supply concerns. The IEA warned that the global diesel shortage will persist until at least 2027, prompting the release of crude oil stocks and the lifting of sanctions on Russia to stabilize markets. Analysts note that current oil prices remain high despite market realities, as Gulf producers adapt by extending tanker transfers to India. Oil 09:17 ASX 200 Posts Third Straight Weekly Gain The ASX 200 climbed 1.0% on Friday, reaching a near five-week high at 8,807. Stronger U.S. futures and softer Australian labor data fueled the rally, while gains were broad across sectors. BHP Group led with a 3.5% rise after averting a strike, and gold miners also advanced. The index rose 1% for the week, its third consecutive weekly gain, though caution remains ahead of Chinese economic data. Copper 08:55 TRX Gold Expands Buckreef Project for Higher Production and EBITDA TRX Gold is expanding its Buckreef Gold Project in Tanzania, adding a 3,500-ton-per-day plant to increase total processing capacity to 5,500 tons per day. The company released a preliminary economic assessment in May 2025 and is updating the study to reflect the larger operation. Current production stands at 30,000 ounces annually, with $80 million in last-12-month EBITDA. Exploration efforts are also ramping up, with promising results from the Stamford Bridge and Anfield zones. Gold 08:11 Equinor Secures Five-Year Dutch Gas Supply Deal with Eneco Equinor ASA has signed a five-year natural gas supply agreement with Eneco, its third deal this year. The agreement will supply 9 TWh of gas annually from the Norwegian Continental Shelf to the Netherlands, starting October 1, 2026. The deal includes environmental tracking and highlights Equinor's role in Europe's energy market. Equinor holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), along with other top energy stocks. Natural Gas 07:52 Oil Prices Rise on Middle East Supply Fears and US Stock Draw Oil prices dipped today but are set for a weekly gain due to Middle East supply risks and a large US crude stock draw. Brent and WTI futures fell slightly but remain up 0.49% and 5.91% this week, respectively. Analysts highlight the need for a US-Iran agreement to stabilize oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency is releasing additional diesel to ease market pressures, but investors seek broader geopolitical solutions. Oil 07:04 Wet Harvest Damages Canadian Crops and Raises Global Food Price Concerns Canada’s farmers struggled with an unusually wet September, delaying harvests and damaging crops like spring wheat and lentils. By late September, Saskatchewan’s harvest was only 41% complete, far below the five-year average. The late rains have degraded crop quality, raising concerns about tighter global wheat supplies and higher food prices. Farmers are facing additional costs to dry wet wheat, and official damage estimates are expected in mid-November. The impact could affect Canada’s role as a top exporter of key agricultural products. Wheat 06:36 Gold rises on weaker dollar but faces weekly decline Gold prices edged higher on Friday, October 16, 2026, due to a weaker dollar, but were still set for a small weekly loss. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,177.82 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures climbed 0.7% to $4,199.10. Investors are weighing signals from the Federal Reserve on interest rates, which has contributed to the metal's mixed performance this week. Gold 06:15 Global grain prices surge in 2026 on supply and weather concerns Global grain prices have surged in 2026 due to supply concerns and adverse weather conditions. Rice futures have climbed 80%, reaching their highest levels since July 2024, while wheat and barley prices have also risen significantly. India's rice production is expected to decline by 7 million tonnes, contributing to the price increases. The rally in grain prices extends beyond rice, with wheat and corn recording strong gains amid weather-related risks and supply disruptions. Wheat Corn 05:51 Record Ship Attacks in Strait of Hormuz Disrupt Oil Exports The Strait of Hormuz has experienced a record number of ship attacks, with 12 vessels reporting incidents between October 5 and 11. This surge in attacks has led to a slowdown in oil shipments, dropping to 12.6 million barrels per day from a pre-war baseline of 17 million. Iran is targeting ships to assert control over the waterway, expanding attacks beyond the strait. Despite the attacks, the US military ensures commercial traffic continues with protection from US forces and regional partners. Two crew members remain missing after a drone strike on the tanker Petro Dolphin, and the container ship GFS Pride sank after being struck, with all crew evacuated. Oil 05:12 Carney urges Albertans to reject separation in upcoming referendum Prime Minister Mark Carney is campaigning in Alberta to encourage voters to reject separation in Monday's referendum. Over 450,000 Albertans have already voted, with polls favoring unity but Carney warning that turnout is crucial. Carney acknowledged local frustrations but cautioned against economic risks of separation, while Premier Danielle Smith supports the referendum as a way to hear from Albertans. Separation advocates argue Alberta has been overlooked by federal policies. Oil 04:41 Gold Dips Ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Key Speech Gold prices edged lower on October 15, 2026, as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks for signals on interest rate changes. Bullion fell as much as 0.6% before trading near $4,160 an ounce. Warsh's speech at an IMF meeting in Bangkok is the last clue on monetary policy before the Fed's blackout ahead of its October 27-28 meeting. Gold 04:01 Oil Dips as Investors Weigh Middle East Risks and U.S. Sanctions Relief Oil prices fell slightly on Friday as investors weighed Middle East risks and potential U.S. easing of sanctions on the shadow fleet of tankers. Brent crude dropped 0.39% to $105.51 per barrel, while WTI fell 0.55% to $97.43. The International Energy Agency released additional diesel and emergency reserves to cool prices, though investors remained unsatisfied. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, including attacks by Yemen's Houthis and Iran's strikes, continued to support oil prices. Oil 03:33 Gold Prices Climb 1.39 Percent as Investors Hedge Against Inflation Gold prices rose by 1.39 percent to near $4,163 per ounce on October 16, 2026, with US gold futures also seeing gains. Domestic spot gold closed higher at Rs 1,45,511 per 10 grams, while silver prices dipped. Investors viewed bullion as a hedge against inflation, supported by a stable rupee and buying interest. Key events like Kevin Warsh’s speech and the Fed’s policy decision will influence future bullion prices. Gold 03:06 Oil Prices Steady Amid Middle East Tensions and Strategic Reserve Releases Oil prices hold firm above $100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions and potential supply disruptions. IEA members will release the remaining 100 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, including 20 million barrels of diesel. The US may consider easing sanctions on Russia’s shadow tanker fleet to reduce fuel costs. Iron ore prices briefly fell below $90 per ton due to weak Chinese demand, while cocoa prices rose on stronger demand data. Oil Wheat Corn 02:46 Gold and Silver Recover After Selloff Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Concerns Gold and silver prices edged higher on October 16, recovering from earlier losses, with gold at $4,177.50 per ounce and silver at $57.430 per ounce. Domestic prices fell due to a stronger rupee and weak demand. US inflation and interest rate expectations, along with geopolitical tensions, are key factors influencing the market. Analysts identified critical support and resistance levels for both metals, with the near-term outlook hinging on economic data and Federal Reserve policies. Gold Silver 02:00 Alberta Votes on Potential Secession Referendum Alberta will vote on Monday on whether to stay in Canada or hold a binding referendum on secession. Premier Danielle Smith initiated the vote after a court ruled a previous secession petition unconstitutional. Smith criticized the court’s decision for delaying democratic expression. The vote follows widespread public petitions and legal disputes over Indigenous rights. The outcome will shape Alberta’s future relationship with Canada. Oil 01:34 Corn Futures Dip as Brazil Production Forecast Rises Corn futures are down 2 to 3 cents in midday trading, with the national average cash corn price at $4.39. EIA data shows ethanol production up 12,000 barrels per day, while ethanol stocks increased by 199,000 barrels. CONAB data projects the 2026/27 corn crop at 148 MMT, a 2.4% increase from the previous year, with significant growth in the first crop due to increased acreage. Corn 01:06 Diesel Shortage Expected to Last Until Mid-2027 Amid Global Supply Crunch The global diesel crisis is expected to last until at least mid-2027, according to the International Energy Agency. Despite higher crude oil flows, refinery constraints in the Middle East and Russia have kept diesel supplies low, driving prices to record highs. The IEA reports that global diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels per day in September, with supply shortages pushing inventories into a critical phase. The economic impact includes rising inflation and increased costs for industries reliant on diesel, particularly trucking. Experts warn that the crisis requires broader normalization of the energy supply chain to resolve. Oil 00:33 Taiwan Alaska LNG Deal Aims to Boost Energy Security and US Exports Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of the output from a proposed Alaska LNG project over 20 years, investing $4.4 billion. The deal aims to diversify Taiwan’s energy supplies and reduce dependence on the Middle East, with potential supplies starting in 2032. China criticized the agreement, citing the 'one-China principle,' highlighting the political implications of the energy transaction. The project’s success depends on finalizing contracts, securing financing, and proceeding with construction. Natural Gas 00:03 Guyana's Oil Boom Puts Natural Gas Export Plans in Doubt Guyana's oil exports have surged to over 1 million barrels daily, driven by Exxon's discoveries in the Stabroek Block. Plans to export LNG are now in doubt due to insufficient gas supply, as Exxon requires most of the gas for oil production. The government is considering keeping the gas for domestic use or reducing the LNG facility's capacity. Exxon and the Guyanese government are working together to optimize resource recovery and align gas supply with demand. Oil Natural Gas

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