Forex market news | Guavy

Lead story 33m ago ECB’s Panetta Warns Rising Bond Yields May Slow Economy European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta stated that rising bond yields could restrain the region’s economy, though the situation is not yet critical. He noted that the yield increases are part of a global trend, primarily driven by the US, where growth and inflation have surpassed expectations. Panetta’s comments reflect the ECB’s watchful approach to debt market movements. Sentiment -1 Clout 100 Speculation 3 EUR

Earlier today

Times in UTC

15:53 Dollar Dips Gold Struggles as Key Support Levels Tested The U.S. dollar is under pressure, approaching a support area at 101.11-101.26 after a bearish gap opened at 101.51-101.60. Gold, meanwhile, is nearing a downside target of 4080 and has breached a key weekly bullish gap intraday. Other metals like silver, copper, and platinum are also facing selling pressure. The daily and weekly closes will be crucial in determining the next direction for these markets. USD 15:16 Kaplan Warns of Risks in Aggressive Fed Rate Hikes Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Rob Kaplan anticipates a Federal Reserve rate hike in December but warns against aggressive tightening, which could weaken the economy without reducing inflation. He noted that higher diesel costs are spreading inflation to other sectors, while labor data shows stability with jobless claims at 194,000. Treasury yields fell, and Kaplan highlighted a disconnect between corporate profits and consumer financial experiences. Traders see an 82.5% chance of a rate hike by December. USD 14:46 Swiss Franc Strengthens as Safe-Haven Demand Rises The Swiss franc is once again becoming a safe-haven currency due to the euro's weakness and political instability in France. The franc has strengthened significantly against both the euro and the US dollar, reaching its highest level since early July. Concerns over France's rising debt and political uncertainty have led to higher yields on French government bonds, with analysts predicting the euro could fall to just under CHF0.90 in the medium term. EUR USD CHF 14:02 Real Estate Investor Sentiment Improves Slightly Amid Market Challenges The Fall 2026 RCN Capital Investor Sentiment Survey shows a slight improvement in real estate investor sentiment, rising to 89 from a low of 84. The war in Iran and the Federal Reserve's rate hike are major concerns, with 60% of investors citing the conflict's negative impact and 50% expecting higher borrowing costs. Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.5%, straining affordability. While 37% of investors view the market more favorably, financing and insurance costs remain significant challenges. Two-thirds of investors anticipate rising home prices by year-end. USD 13:42 Christine Lagarde Makes History as First Woman to Lead IMF Christine Lagarde has become the first woman to head the International Monetary Fund, marking a historic milestone. Known for her power dressing, she has also become a fashion icon in the finance sector. A Forbes article features a gallery of 20 photos showcasing her distinctive style. Her appointment highlights her expertise and leadership, inspiring many, especially women in finance. EUR 13:14 Swiss Franc Faces Safe-Haven Risks Amid Funding Currency Role Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes discusses the Swiss Franc’s role as a funding currency, noting its gradual depreciation interrupted by sharp rebounds during market stress. With Swiss inflation below 1% and GDP growth near 2%, the SNB faces little pressure to raise rates. Juckes warns against expecting sustained CHF weakness, as falling oil prices and a softer dollar could eventually support the Franc against higher-yielding currencies. The timing of such moves remains uncertain. EUR USD CHF 12:42 France’s Debt Risk Premium Hits Euro Zone Crisis Levels France’s 10-year government bond yield hit a 15-year high at 5.11 per cent, with the risk premium over German Bunds widening to 173.58, levels last seen during the euro zone debt crisis. Concerns over France’s fiscal health and ongoing protests have weighed on investor sentiment, despite improved industrial sentiment. Borrowing costs across the euro zone have risen due to higher energy prices and expectations of ECB rate hikes, with Germany’s 10-year yield falling to 3.38 per cent. Yield gaps over Bunds widened for other euro zone countries, reflecting broader market unease. EUR 12:13 SNB Drops Franc Sales Threat as Haven Flows Decline The Swiss National Bank has determined that its threat to sell Swiss francs is no longer necessary as haven flows into the currency have subsided. Officials explained their reasoning in a summary of their September 24 meeting, released on Thursday. The bank adjusted its statement to reflect this new stance while keeping the interest rate at zero. This decision indicates a shift in the SNB's approach to managing the franc's strength in response to changing market conditions. CHF 11:45 SNB Drops Franc Sales Threat as Haven Flows Subside The Swiss National Bank has determined that its previous warnings about franc sales are no longer needed as haven flows into the currency have decreased. The bank's reasoning was detailed in a summary of its September 24 meeting, released on Thursday. The SNB adjusted its statement to reflect this change while keeping interest rates at zero. The decision suggests a more stable outlook for the franc amid easing global uncertainties. CHF 11:26 Maine Senate Race Tests Trump’s Tariffs on Voters Maine’s Senate race between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson is dominated by economic concerns, including Trump’s tariffs on Canada and rising diesel prices from the Iran war. Polls show Jackson leading by 2 percentage points, with voters frustrated by the state’s economic struggles. Both candidates oppose the tariffs, but disagree on who is responsible and how to fix the problem. The race could determine whether voters hold Collins accountable for Trump’s policies or see her as an independent voice. CAD 10:42 Clifford Chance Advises on MUFG's First Australian Dollar AT1 Issuance Clifford Chance advised the Joint Lead Managers on MUFG's AU$500 million issuance of AT1 perpetual securities in Australian dollars, marking MUFG's first such issuance. The transaction expands MUFG's funding sources and investor base, with Clifford Chance highlighting it as a milestone in cross-border capital markets. The firm has a longstanding relationship with MUFG, recently advising on the expansion of its structured notes business. AUD 10:20 Canada’s hidden wealth wall shields economy from shocks Canada’s household net worth has surged to nearly $20 trillion, creating a financial buffer that has shielded the economy from shocks. While debt levels remain high, the massive accumulation of financial assets, driven by stock market gains, has supported consumer spending and bank profits. However, this wealth is unevenly distributed, with lower-income and younger Canadians facing greater financial strain. The reliance on financial markets also introduces new risks if stock prices decline. CAD 09:39 British Pound Climbs as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Meeting The British Pound is rising against the US Dollar, trading above 1.3400 amid a weaker USD. High energy prices and strong GDP data in the UK are pushing the Bank of England toward a rate hike in November. The Fed's cautious stance is keeping the US Dollar depressed. Analysts at ING predict further BoE rate hikes, supporting the Pound's strength. EUR USD GBP 09:12 SNB Ends Franc Sales Threat as Haven Demand Fades The Swiss National Bank has determined that its threat of franc sales is no longer required due to a decrease in haven flows into the currency. Officials explained their decision in a summary of their September 24 meeting, released on Thursday. The SNB adjusted its statement to reflect this change while keeping interest rates at zero. The bank's confidence in the franc's stability led to this strategic shift. CHF 08:41 Canadian Dollar Holds Near Four-Week High Ahead of Rate Decision The Canadian dollar remained near a four-week high on Wednesday as investors anticipated a Bank of Canada rate hike next week. The loonie was trading at 1.4050 per US dollar, with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point increase to 2.50% on October 28. Analysts cited a softer US dollar and higher oil prices as key factors supporting the currency. Canada and Ontario unveiled a C$9 billion support package for the steel and auto sectors, while August retail sales data is expected to rebound 1.3%. Oil prices fell 0.9% to $96.98 a barrel. USD CAD 08:16 Bank of Japan to Keep Rates at 1.25% Amid Stable Inflation The Bank of Japan is set to keep its interest rate at 1.25% during its October 29-30 meeting, as underlying inflation has reached the 2% target. Governor Kazuo Ueda and the policy board are expected to maintain the current rate to ensure inflation remains stable. The BOJ has considered further rate hikes but will likely hold off for now to avoid disrupting economic conditions. JPY 07:43 US Long-Term Yields Drop to One-Month Low on AI Fears On October 22, 2026, US Treasury yields fell, with the 30-year yield hitting a one-month low of 5.38%. Investors sought safety in Treasuries, the yen, and the Swiss franc amid renewed AI-related stock market declines. Australian and New Zealand debt also rose, while the Japanese yen gained 0.3% against the dollar. The moves reflected a flight-to-safety dynamic as concerns about the AI sector resurfaced. JPY CHF NZD 07:10 EUR Bank Bond Supply to Dip Slightly in 2027 Amid High Redemptions EUR bank bond supply is projected to hit €450bn in 2027, down slightly from €455bn in 2026, primarily due to high redemption volumes totaling nearly €400bn. Covered bonds will see a historic high of €186bn in redemptions, while subordinated segments will also rise. Macroeconomic factors and geopolitical instability are expected to have limited impact on supply. The forecast includes €185bn in covered bonds, €210bn in senior unsecured bonds, €35bn in Tier 2, and €20bn in AT1 supplies. EUR 06:59 Australian house prices crash 71% after tax changes Australian house prices have fallen by 71% following changes to property tax settings announced in the May budget. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers likely expected this decline, which was exacerbated by three interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The tax changes aimed to push investors out of the market, contributing to the sharp downturn. AUD 06:11 Euro Zone Banks Braced for Bond Turmoil Amid Rising Debt Costs Euro zone banks are better positioned to weather rising government borrowing costs compared to the 2010s debt crisis, thanks to stronger capital buffers and tighter supervision. However, a 10% drop in European bank stocks over the past six weeks highlights ongoing concerns, particularly in France, where debt costs are at 25-year highs. Banks' net sovereign bond holdings have doubled since the crisis, reaching €4.3-trillion, but capital buffers have risen even more. Analysts note that exposure to domestic debt for large French banks is now roughly 15% to 30% of their best-quality capital, a significant improvement from past crises. EUR 05:45 Markets Bet on Australian Rates Above 5% After RBA Inflation Warning Financial markets are now pricing in the possibility of Australian interest rates climbing above 5 per cent early next year, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s warning on inflation. The Australian dollar reached a three-week high of US70.28¢, while three-year bond yields jumped to 4.94 per cent. Traders are rapidly adjusting their expectations ahead of the RBA’s next policy meeting, reflecting growing confidence in tighter monetary conditions. AUD 05:01 French Bond Spreads Surpass Italy’s Amid Political Uncertainty France’s 10-year government-bond spread over Germany has widened to levels last seen during the eurozone crisis, surpassing Italy’s spread. Political uncertainty around the 2027 budget and election could lead to further market repricing. MSCI’s stress-testing framework examines two scenarios: eurozone fragmentation and a fiscal-regime shift, with the former causing a 5% loss in a hypothetical global portfolio and the latter a 3% loss. Eurozone government bonds in EUR terms lose 4% under the fiscal-regime shift scenario, compared to 2% under fragmentation. EUR 04:40 Indian Rupee Strengthens but Faces Crude Oil Risks The Indian rupee opened nearly flat at 94.47 against the US dollar on Thursday, ending an eight-session rally supported by RBI measures and Jio Platforms IPO flows. Rising crude oil prices, however, pose a risk to this recovery. Brent crude rose 1.5% to above $110.50 a barrel, increasing dollar demand from importers. The rupee’s outlook depends on continued central bank support and oil price movements, with a treasury official warning of potential reversal if oil prices remain high. USD 04:22 Singapore Dollar Emerges as Top Carry Trade Currency The Singapore dollar is gaining popularity as a funding currency for carry trades due to its low borrowing costs and stable outlook. The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept policy settings unchanged, reinforcing expectations of limited currency gains. Strategists highlight its appeal over the Japanese yen, which faces rising borrowing costs due to Bank of Japan rate hikes. The Singapore dollar’s three-month forward-implied yield is around 1.65%, among the cheapest globally, with reduced volatility enhancing its attractiveness for carry trades. USD JPY 03:47 Gold Dips as Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Path Weigh on Prices Gold prices dipped as Middle East tensions raised inflation risks, while the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady in the near term. Bullion was trading at around $4,120 an ounce, after a 0.4% rise in the previous session. Oil prices rose amid concerns of escalation, and Treasury yields climbed. The Fed is widely expected to increase rates in December, though the probability of a hike next week is less than one-in-six. USD 03:16 UK Inflation Surge Puts ETFs in Focus Ahead of Expected Rate Hike UK inflation climbed to 3.5% in September 2026, up from 3.1% in August, reinforcing expectations of a Bank of England rate hike next month. The surge was driven by a 29.8% year-over-year jump in motor fuel costs. Markets are pricing a 98% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 4% in November, with further increases expected in December. This shift is reshaping the outlook for UK equities, benefiting banks while pressuring rate-sensitive sectors. Several UK-focused ETFs, including EWU, FXB, and FKU, are in focus as investors weigh the impact of tighter monetary policy. GBP 02:47 Gold Dips as Middle East Tensions and Fed Policy Weigh on Prices Gold prices dipped on October 21, 2026, as Middle East tensions raised inflation risks, despite expectations of steady Federal Reserve interest rates. Bullion traded around $4,120 an ounce after a 0.4% rise in the previous session. The decline followed a US State Department order for non-emergency personnel to leave Saudi Arabia and a drone strike on a Saudi Aramco field, which killed two people and pushed oil prices higher. USD 02:27 Eurozone inflation climbs to 3.8 percent in three years Eurozone inflation has hit a three-year high of 3.8%, prompting a US high school economics class to analyze the economic indicators behind this surge. Students are asked to identify the country with the highest inflation rate and the sector driving the increase. The lesson also explores whether monetary policy tightening could reduce inflation, based on the underlying causes. The Financial Times' free schools access program supports this educational initiative. EUR 01:37 UBS Cuts Pay Bump for Junior Bankers on Promotion Junior investment bankers at UBS Group AG received a smaller pay bump upon promotion to the 'Associate 0' level this year, with a base salary of about 155,000 Swiss francs, which is 20,000 francs less than previously. The change reflects adjustments in UBS's compensation structure, potentially influencing the bank's appeal to junior talent. The reduction was announced in July and affects analysts based in Zurich. CHF 01:22 Singapore Dollar Rises as Carry Trade Favorite Over Yen The Singapore dollar is gaining popularity as a funding currency for carry trades due to its low borrowing costs and limited expectations for appreciation. The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept policy settings unchanged last week, reinforcing the view of modest currency gains. Strong safe-haven inflows have pushed down forward-implied yields, making the Singapore dollar more attractive relative to the Japanese yen. JPY 00:35 Hawkish RBA Boosts Australian Dollar Amid Weak USD The Australian dollar has strengthened this week due to hawkish RBA comments and a weaker US dollar, with market odds of a November rate hike doubling to 50%. Despite high unemployment, the RBA remains focused on inflation control. AUD/USD has rallied but faces resistance near 0.7050 and 0.7075. The New Zealand dollar has outperformed, pushing AUD/NZD down by 1%. Other currency pairs show mixed results, with the Aussie gaining against some majors but losing against others. EUR USD JPY GBP 00:18 New Zealand Inflation Dips Ahead of Election Fuel Price Concerns New Zealand's annual inflation slowed to 3.7% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 4.1% in the previous quarter and below economists’ forecasts of 3.8%. The decrease was driven by lower fuel prices, offering temporary relief ahead of the upcoming election. However, analysts warn of a potential fuel price spike later in the year, which could reverse the recent slowdown. NZD

Yesterday

Times in UTC

23:44 UK Inflation Surges to 3.5% Fueling Rate Hike Expectations U.K. inflation rose to 3.5% in the year to September, higher than the forecasted 3.4%, due to rising motor fuel costs. This increase has strengthened expectations for two rate hikes by the Bank of England by the end of 2026. The data comes as investors are also reacting to earnings reports from Meta and Tesla. GBP 23:19 New Zealand inflation dips but expected to rise again soon New Zealand's inflation rate dropped to 3.7% in the September quarter, down from 4.1% in June, primarily due to a temporary fall in fuel prices. However, underlying inflation pressures remain strong, with expectations of a rise to 4.5% by the end of the year. Finance Minister Nicola Willis noted that global events and past energy policies could impact future inflation. Economists predict further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with markets anticipating increases in October and December. EUR NZD 22:45 Australia Moves to Sue Tech Giants Over Under-16 Social Media Ban Australia is preparing to sue Meta, TikTok, Snap, and Google for allegedly failing to enforce the country’s under-16 social media ban. The government has doubled penalties to 109.2 million Australian dollars ($76 million) and granted regulators new investigative powers. The legal battle will test what constitutes reasonable efforts to prevent underage access, potentially leading to stricter age checks and influencing global social media regulations. AUD 22:11 New Zealand Inflation Cools Ahead of Election Fuel Price Spike New Zealand's annual inflation rate slowed to 3.7% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 4.1% in the previous quarter and below economists' forecasts of 3.8%. The quarterly increase was 0.7%, slightly lower than expected. The slowdown was driven by retreating fuel prices, but analysts warn of a potential spike in fuel costs in the fourth quarter. The data was released ahead of an upcoming election, offering temporary relief to the government. NZD 21:55 Bank of England Set to Hike Rates Amid Energy Shock The Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates next month, even though higher rates won't reduce oil prices. UK price inflation was higher than expected last month, reinforcing the need for action. Governor Andrew Bailey has emphasized the importance of controlling inflation, though the impact of rate hikes in an energy shock remains uncertain. GBP 21:12 Bloomberg Survey Shows Strong Expectation for BOJ Rate Hike in December Over 80% of Bank of Japan watchers surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to raise interest rates in December 2026, up from just 35% last month. The current rate stands at 1.25%, and none of the respondents anticipate a hike at the upcoming meeting on October 30, 2026. The shift in expectations underscores growing confidence in a December rate increase. JPY 20:31 National Bank CEO pushes for complete tax code overhaul National Bank of Canada CEO Laurent Ferreira has urged Ottawa to overhaul the federal tax system, calling it overly complex and burdensome, especially for small businesses. He proposed a small team of experts rewrite the tax code within a year to attract investment in critical sectors. Ferreira cited research and development subsidies as an example of unnecessary complexity, where clients often opt out due to convoluted processes. His call aligns with broader expert consensus on the need for tax reform to boost economic growth. CAD 20:05 Business leaders split on Luxon's future in latest survey The Mood of the Boardroom Survey shows rising confidence in New Zealand's domestic economy among business leaders, with a rating of 3.37 out of 5. Education Minister Erica Stanford was rated the top Cabinet minister, while Prime Minister Christopher Luxon scored poorly on overall performance but was seen as strong in driving growth. Nicola Willis was trusted most to manage the economy through another shock, with 60 percent support. NZD 19:44 RBA Deputy Governor Warns of Worsening Inflation Outlook Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on October 21 that the inflation outlook had worsened due to higher oil prices, leaving the central bank uncertain about a November rate hike. Brent crude oil rose to US$108 a barrel, up from US$102 three weeks ago. The RBA meets on November 2 and 3 to decide on a potential fifth rate increase in 2026, with markets pricing in a 40% chance of a hike. Consumer price data next week could show headline inflation at 4.0% in the third quarter, while core inflation remains around 3.5%. Hauser noted that the labor market had eased more than expected, with unemployment hitting 4.7% in September. AUD 19:14 EU Explores Digital Euro to Boost Digital and Monetary Sovereignty The European Union is considering the launch of a digital euro, a new electronic form of cash issued by the European Central Bank. This digital currency would coexist with physical cash, offering an additional payment option and enhancing Europe's digital sovereignty. The digital euro would function similarly to physical cash but in a digital format, ensuring stable value and privacy. It is still in the preparation phase, with negotiations ongoing for the legal framework. EUR 18:42 Dollar Mixed Ahead of Fed Meeting Amid Inflation and AI Growth Concerns The US dollar fluctuated on Wednesday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve meeting, with oil-driven inflation risks and AI-driven growth influencing market sentiment. The euro weakened due to French protests and fiscal concerns, while the Australian dollar gained on hawkish central bank comments. UK inflation data supported the pound, and the yen firmed slightly amid signals of potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. EUR USD JPY GBP 18:27 Gold Dips as Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns Ahead of Fed Meeting Gold prices fell for a fourth day on Wednesday, as higher oil prices raised inflation fears and investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Spot gold rose slightly to $4,136.22 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery increased to $4,152.60. Analysts expect gold to remain range-bound with a downward bias, as markets price in an 88% chance of a December rate hike. Brent crude held at $108 a barrel amid Middle East tensions, while other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium also declined. USD 17:41 National Bank CEO Calls for Complete Tax System Overhaul National Bank of Canada CEO Laurent Ferreira urged a complete rebuild of Canada’s tax system, stating it is too complex for incremental fixes. He made the remarks at the Canadian Club Toronto on Wednesday, emphasizing the need to scrap the current system entirely. The call highlights concerns about the inefficiency and complexity of Canada’s tax code. CAD 17:11 UK inflation and borrowing surge ahead of crucial budget announcement UK inflation and public borrowing rose more than expected in September, with the Consumer Prices Index hitting 3.5 percent and net borrowing reaching £24.5 billion. Finance minister John Healey attributed the increases to global conflicts and energy price hikes, promising fiscal discipline in the upcoming budget. Analysts predict the Bank of England will raise borrowing costs in November, while public debt exceeded £3 trillion for the first time. GBP 16:45 El Niño and Oil Prices Threaten Sub-Saharan Africa's Economic Stability Sub-Saharan Africa has shown resilience amid the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices, with GDP growth revised to 4.5% for 2026. Inflation remains contained due to restrictive policies and fuel subsidies, but public finances are deteriorating in some countries. An exceptional El Niño event in 2027 could worsen the macroeconomic environment, particularly through climate shocks affecting agriculture and infrastructure. The region's vulnerability to food price inflation and external shocks leaves little room for maneuver. USD 16:16 NZ business leaders show highest confidence in economy since 2024 New Zealand’s business leaders have expressed heightened optimism about the domestic economy, with confidence levels surpassing a nine-year high recorded in 2024. The Herald’s 2026 Mood of the Boardroom survey rated economic confidence at 3.37 out of 5. This renewed optimism could indicate stronger investment and growth ahead. The full survey details are available to Premium subscribers. NZD 15:59 Bailey Stands by Defense of Powell Against Trump Attacks Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey defended his decision to speak out in support of former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell against attacks from Donald Trump. Bailey stated that he and other central bank leaders felt the need to respond because Trump’s criticism had turned personal. The comments underscore the ongoing tension between central bank independence and political pressures. USD GBP 15:24 UK Inflation Hits Year High as Fuel Prices Surge Amid Iran War The U.K. saw its highest inflation rate in nearly a year, with consumer prices rising 3.5% annually in September, driven by soaring fuel costs due to the Iran war. Treasury chief John Healey plans to address the cost of living in his budget statement, but economists expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates to 4% in November. The conflict has disrupted global oil supplies, pushing fuel prices up by 30% annually. EUR USD GBP 14:55 Fed Data Reveals Retirement Savings Gaps Across Age Groups The Federal Reserve’s 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances shows that less than two-thirds of households in their 40s or 50s have a retirement account, with median balances rising from $12,600 in the 20s to $250,000 in the 60s and 70s. Retirement account ownership peaks in the 50s before declining in older age groups. Median balances increased by 11% overall since 2022, with the largest gains in the 30s, 40s, and 60s. However, account holders in their 50s and 20s saw declines in median balances. The survey also reveals that many households, especially those in their 40s and 50s, do not have a retirement account, which could impact their retirement security. USD 14:04 PBO warns Canada’s debt growing faster than deficit amid spending concerns The Parliamentary Budget Officer warns that Canada’s federal debt is growing faster than the deficit due to increased borrowing for Crown corporations and defence spending. The PBO projects the debt will reach $1.67-trillion by 2030-31, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 42.6 per cent. Conservatives have criticized the government’s spending, while Finance Minister Champagne defends the fiscal record. The PBO suggests focusing on the debt-to-GDP ratio for stronger fiscal discipline, and public debt charges are expected to reach $83-billion by 2030-31. CAD 13:41 Dollar Weakens as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Shift The US Dollar is trading modestly weaker as markets scale back expectations for an October Fed rate hike, following disappointing housing data. MUFG still expects one more rate hike in December, with a slight chance of an October hike. The impact of housing weakness on the Dollar is muted, as the Fed focuses on broader inflation targets. Rate hike expectations are also increasing for other G10 central banks. USD GBP CAD AUD 13:24 Bank of England Set to Hike Rates Amid Energy Shock The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates next month despite an energy shock. Higher rates are unlikely to reduce oil prices, but inflation in the UK came in higher than expected last month. Andrew Bailey, the governor, has not commented publicly, but markets anticipate a hike. The decision reflects the bank's focus on inflation amid economic uncertainty. GBP 12:34 AI Boom Creates Uncertainty for Fed Rate Decisions Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is taking a measured approach as the AI investment boom creates uncertainty for US interest rates. The surge in AI spending is driving up rates through economic growth and stock market gains. The boom represents a significant wildcard in the Fed's rate-setting calculus, with its long-term effects remaining uncertain. Bloomberg highlights that the trajectory of AI spending will be a key factor in determining future monetary policy. USD 12:08 UK Inflation Jumps to Highest in Nearly a Year on Fuel Price Surge UK inflation hit a near one-year high of 3.5% in September, driven by a 30% surge in fuel prices due to the Iran war. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 4% on November 5, despite Treasury efforts to ease living costs. Other central banks have also increased rates, with the U.K.’s rates previously trending downward until the conflict in Iran escalated. EUR USD GBP 11:32 ECB's Kazaks Warns of Possible Further Rate Hikes European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks suggested that interest rates may need to rise further if inflation stays elevated. He noted that consumer-price gains remain significantly above target, potentially requiring additional policy tightening. However, Kazaks advised caution due to conflicting economic pressures. His comments highlight the ECB's ongoing challenge of balancing inflation control with growth considerations. EUR 11:28 Bank of England to Test Banks Against AI Risks The Bank of England is planning AI stress tests for banks amid rising concerns over real-world AI-related incidents in the financial sector. These tests aim to assess and mitigate potential risks before they become larger issues. Financial institutions are taking proactive steps to evaluate their resilience against AI-driven threats, reflecting a broader trend in the industry. GBP 10:53 Inflation Surge Challenges Fed’s Rate Hike Pause Plans Last week’s inflation data showed a 0.6% rise in consumer prices, the fastest pace in five months, pushing year-over-year inflation to 3.7%. Core CPI inflation also increased to 2.6%. These figures challenge the Federal Reserve’s recent consideration of pausing interest rate hikes. The Fed will release the PCE inflation data on October 29, with early signs suggesting it may also come in higher than expected. USD 10:17 UK Inflation Hits 3.5% Fuelled by Rising Fuel Prices UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, driven by higher petrol and diesel prices, surpassing the Bank of England's 2% target. The current base interest rate is 3.75%, with potential increases due to energy price volatility. Wages have grown ahead of inflation, but higher borrowing costs pose risks to the economy. In Europe and the US, inflation rates have also increased, leading to interest rate hikes by central banks. EUR USD GBP 09:58 Japan's Inflation Windfall Could Fund Takaichi's Plans Japan has gained an estimated ¥195 trillion ($1.2 trillion) in fiscal room due to inflation eroding the real value of government debt, according to former Bank of Japan official Tsutomu Watanabe. The benefit comes from the gap between rising market interest rates and the lower rates paid on Japan's ¥1,100 trillion outstanding debt. Watanabe suggested this windfall could help Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi fund defense and investment plans. JPY 09:19 Treasury Yields Hold Ahead of Key Economic Data and Fed Meeting Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors awaited fresh economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 28 interest rate decision. The 10-year Treasury yield remained at 5.1211%, while the 2-year and 30-year yields stood at 4.7889% and 5.4320%, respectively. Energy prices ticked higher due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Key economic reports, including mortgage rates and jobless claims, are expected later this week. USD 08:43 Euro Weakens as French Crisis Spreads Eurozone Wide The Euro extended its losses against the Canadian Dollar, trading around 1.5770 on Wednesday, as the French political crisis continues to weigh on the broader Eurozone. French bonds faced renewed pressure, with the 10-year OAT-Bund spread widening to 157 basis points. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar strengthened due to higher crude oil prices and a shift in Bank of Canada rate hike expectations, with a 25 basis points hike now priced in for next week. Diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran also influenced market momentum. EUR CAD 08:26 Bank of Japan to assess if inflation target reached next week The Bank of Japan will decide at its Oct. 29-30 meeting whether underlying inflation has reached its 2 percent target, a goal set in 2013. The central bank is expected to leave its key interest rate at 1.25 percent, following last month's hike. Core consumer prices have exceeded 2 percent annually since 2022, but the BOJ is assessing broader economic factors before making a final decision. JPY 07:59 TSX Gains 0.5% as Markets Show Mixed Performance The Dow climbed 1.02%, and the NASDAQ fell 0.02%. Oil prices increased 0.88%, and the US dollar rose 0.02%. Gold prices dropped 0.03%. Top movers on the TSX included Enbridge (ENB-T) up 1.14% and Air Canada (ATH-T) down 0.41%. The Hong Kong Dollar/Japanese Yen (HKDJPY) pair showed a 1-year change of +3.10%. USD JPY CAD 07:07 UK Inflation Surge Pressures Bank of England for Rate Hike UK inflation has hit an 11-month high, putting pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. The recent approval of drilling in a contentious North Sea gas field adds to economic uncertainties. Analysts are divided on whether the inflation surge is temporary or long-term. Consumers and businesses await the BOE's next move, which could significantly impact borrowing costs and spending power. GBP 06:50 RBA Faces Tough Choices as Inflation Pressures Persist The Reserve Bank of Australia is facing a 'central bankers’ nightmare' as it considers another rate cut in November. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned of persistent inflation pressures, with oil prices hitting $US110 a barrel, higher than expected. The RBA must choose between raising rates to combat inflation or holding to protect jobs. Economists warn of potential recession risks, while Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlighted the economic strain from the Middle East conflict. AUD 06:26 UK Inflation Hits 11-Month Peak as BOE Weighs Rate Hike UK inflation rose to a new 11-month high of 3.5% in September, driven by higher petrol and diesel prices. The increase exceeded economists' expectations of 3.4%, prompting the Bank of England to consider its first interest-rate hike in over three years. Diesel prices reached a record high in late September, contributing to the inflation surge. The BOE's decision will impact economic growth and borrowing costs. GBP 05:31 US Dollar Strengthens Against Swiss Franc Amid Oil-Driven Inflation Fears The US Dollar is gaining ground against the Swiss Franc as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns. The USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.8260, with safe-haven demand supporting the USD. Switzerland’s trade surplus narrowed to CHF 1.31 billion in September, the lowest since November 2022. UOB Group strategists predict further declines in USD/CHF, targeting 0.8200. The Federal Reserve’s next moves remain uncertain, with markets pricing in an 83.9% chance of rates being held next week and a 90% chance of a hike in December. USD CHF 05:10 BOJ Expected to Raise Rates Every Quarter Says Ex-Official The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates every three months to control inflation risks, according to former BOJ executive director Eiji Maeda. He expects the next hike in December, followed by another in March or April. Maeda believes this pace is appropriate to maintain stable price targets. JPY 04:39 Ken Griffin blasts Trump tariffs as disaster ahead of midterms Citadel CEO Ken Griffin called Donald Trump’s tariffs on US allies a disaster, warning they have fueled inflation and disrupted supply chains. He predicted Republicans would likely lose control of at least one chamber of Congress in the midterms. Griffin also criticized Trump’s handling of the war in Iran and called for a path to legal status for immigrants already in the US. US consumer prices rose 3.7% in September, erasing wage gains for workers. EUR 04:23 ECB Pushes for Stronger Euro Role with Global Liquidity Lines The European Central Bank is advocating for a stronger global role for the euro by providing liquidity safety nets to foreign countries. ECB chief economist Philip Lane highlighted strong demand for the ECB’s euro liquidity facilities, with over 30 central banks showing interest. Lane argued that greater international use of the euro would enhance the ECB’s ability to meet its inflation mandate. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the bank is reviewing its network of currency swap lines, which could encourage borrowing in euros but should be limited to closely linked economies. EUR USD 03:31 ANZ declares New Zealand housing bubble mostly deflated ANZ economists say New Zealand's housing bubble has mostly deflated, with the house-price-to-income ratio correcting from a peak of nearly nine in 2021 back to six. They note that structural changes make a return to pre-2000s affordability levels unlikely. The Reserve Bank's indicator still shows concern, and home ownership costs remain elevated compared to renting. The house-price-to-build cost ratio is at a low, suggesting limited further downside, but higher interest rates could pressure prices further. NZD 03:14 Dollar Slips as Yields Dip and Aussie Gains on RBA Comments The US dollar remained under pressure on Wednesday, slipping to a three-week low as Treasury yields dipped. The Australian dollar rose to near a three-week high after hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Crude oil prices eased from a five-month high amid geopolitical developments. Wall Street gained as tech earnings season began, with analysts noting the potential impact on the dollar. Traders remained cautious about the euro due to France’s protests and fiscal challenges. EUR USD JPY GBP 02:44 Gold Stabilizes Amid Iran War Uncertainty and Fed Rate Speculation Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, as conflicting signals about the Iran war's resolution clouded the outlook for inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Bullion was trading at around $4,115 an ounce, down more than 1% since the start of the week. Oil prices remained stable after easing from a five-month high, following a diplomat's statement that reports of a near agreement to end the conflict were inaccurate. The US-Iran conflict has driven up energy prices and stoked inflation concerns, causing gold to lose about a fifth of its value since late February 2026. Traders see an 85% probability of another rate increase later in the year, despite the Fed's next meeting expected to hold rates steady. USD 02:02 Dollar Weakens as Yields and Oil Prices Dip Aussie Strengthens on RBA Comments The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Wednesday, extending a three-week low as Treasury yields and crude oil prices dipped. The Australian dollar hovered near a three-week high after hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The US dollar index held steady at 101.78, while investors weighed tech earnings and geopolitical risks. Oil prices eased after reaching a five-month high, and Wall Street posted gains as earnings season began. Analysts expect the dollar to trend higher in coming months due to foreign capital inflows into U.S. markets. EUR USD JPY GBP 01:40 Japan Prepares for Wage-Driven Inflation Phase Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama announced that the country is moving toward a wage-driven inflation phase. The government plans to cut the consumption tax on food items by two years starting April 2027 to ease living costs. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1.25% in September to combat inflation risks. Analysts caution that tax cuts and spending could contradict the BOJ’s efforts, but Katayama insists the policy will not accelerate inflation. JPY 01:14 RBA Deputy Governor Warns of Worsening Inflation Outlook Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that the country’s inflation outlook is “materially worse” than previously forecast, citing higher oil and tech prices as well as domestic pressures. He mentioned rising AI and tech costs feeding into CPI and a boom in data center construction as key contributors. The RBA is set to hold a policy meeting in early November, where a rate hike may be considered. AUD 00:55 Japan's Katayama Says No Major Divergence with BoJ on Inflation Policy Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the government is coordinating closely with the Bank of Japan, with no major differences in their views on inflation and policy. She noted that tax cuts are helping to boost demand and prices, while emphasizing the need for a balanced fiscal approach. The USD/JPY pair was up 0.10% at 158.35 at the time of writing. USD JPY 00:13 RBA Deputy Governor Warns of Worsening Inflation Outlook RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that inflation is worse than forecasted and slightly above expectations, with companies citing cost pressures as a major concern. He noted easing in job data and housing, though unemployment remains low. The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.7009, up 0.45% on the day. Hauser emphasized the need to respond to supply shocks to maintain inflation expectations. AUD

Tuesday, October 20

Times in UTC

23:39 Bank of Japan Likely to Raise Rates in December A Reuters poll shows that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in December, marking the third hike since June. Rising energy prices and a weaker yen are key factors driving this decision. BoJ member Junko Koeda warns against excessive caution due to inflation risks. For 2027, 60% of analysts predict rates will reach 1.75% by the end of June. JPY 23:06 Liberal government to unveil budget on November 5 amid economic challenges The Liberal government will table its budget on November 5, marking the second fall budget in a row. The spring economic update projected a $65 billion deficit for the current fiscal year, but the Parliamentary Budget Office revised economic growth forecasts downward. The PBO also expects higher deficits and a delayed operating budget balance. The budget comes as inflation rises to 3.1%, with the Bank of Canada expected to raise rates in 2027. CAD 22:53 Alberta's vote for unity bolsters Carney's trade war strategy Alberta's decisive vote to stay in Canada strengthens Prime Minister Mark Carney's position as he navigates a trade war with the US. Over two-thirds of Albertans chose unity, backing Carney's infrastructure projects like a Pacific pipeline. The vote sends a strong message to the US, though global impact may be limited. Carney's focus on economic growth overshadows his past environmental advocacy, reflecting shifting priorities. Canadians are celebrating national unity, but questions remain about long-term resilience. CAD 22:15 Bank of Canada Rate Hike Could Raise Borrowing Costs for Canadians The Bank of Canada may raise its key interest rate next week, which could lead to higher borrowing costs for Canadians. Inflation has slowed to 2.8%, but food prices remain high, and geopolitical tensions pose risks. Governor Tiff Macklem has warned of potential consecutive rate hikes if oil prices rise further. The central bank has kept the rate at 2.25% since October 2025, balancing inflation control with economic growth concerns. CAD 21:53 Canada Faces Rising Deficits and Debt Costs Amid Economic Slowdown The Canadian economy is projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected, with growth rates of 0.9% this year and 1.5% in 2027 due to the Canada-U.S. trade war. The federal deficit is expected to reach $59.3 billion this year and $83 billion by 2030-31, driven by higher borrowing and debt costs. The government's total debt has reached $1.27 trillion, with an additional $333.3 billion expected over the next five years. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced the federal budget will be presented on November 5, highlighting the need to balance deficit reduction with infrastructure investments. CAD 21:17 Variable Mortgage Holders Brace for Potential Rate Hikes in Canada Canadian borrowers with variable-rate mortgages are preparing for potential rate hikes as the Bank of Canada's next decision approaches on October 28. Rising energy costs and trade uncertainties have shifted market expectations from cuts to hikes, despite September's job losses. Experts advise budgeting for higher payments, as a quarter-point increase on a $400,000 mortgage adds about $1,000 in annual interest. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce reported strong earnings but faces risks tied to the housing market. CAD 20:54 Canadian CEOs Shift Focus to Internal Growth Amid Global Uncertainty Canadian CEOs are more confident in their companies than the broader economy, with 60% expecting at least 2.5% annual earnings growth. Despite global uncertainties, 91% plan to increase headcount, and 89% are considering acquisitions. Investments in AI, cybersecurity, and workforce readiness are prioritized, reflecting a strategic shift toward internal growth and resilience. The survey highlights a balanced approach to growth, with a focus on flexibility and adaptability in an unpredictable landscape. CAD 20:00 NZX hits five-week low amid oil and inflation fears The New Zealand sharemarket hit a five-week low as global volatility and rising oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P/NZX 50 Index closed at 13,631.69, down 20.38 points or 0.15%. Trading saw the index fluctuate between a high of 13,712.88 and its closing level. The market's cautious tone reflected broader concerns over inflation and energy costs. NZD 19:46 Greene Urges BOE to Raise Rates Amid Stronger UK Labor Market Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene warned that UK wage pressures have stalled, suggesting a stronger labor market than officials had anticipated. She urged colleagues to raise interest rates at their early November meeting to prevent a price feedback loop. Greene's remarks highlight the need for proactive measures to manage inflation risks amid resilient labor conditions. GBP 19:24 Dollar Slides Amid Iran Tensions and AI Investment Concerns The US dollar slipped on Tuesday as traders assessed the risks of rising US-Iran tensions and the sustainability of AI-driven investments. Oil prices dipped, and the dollar index fell 0.25% to 101.71, while the euro gained slightly despite France's ongoing fiscal strains. The British pound strengthened after resilient labor market data, and the Japanese yen rose following a strong bond auction. The Canadian dollar hit a near one-month high after Alberta rejected separation in a referendum. EUR USD JPY GBP 18:59 Alberta Votes to Stay in Canada Business Leaders Celebrate Certainty Alberta has voted overwhelmingly to remain in Canada, with 75.5% of the votes supporting continued membership. Business leaders are relieved, as the outcome provides certainty for investors and economic stability. The vote addressed economic frustrations, including the 2014 oil price crash, which had fueled separatist sentiments. Polls showed that many businesses were considering relocation if Alberta had moved toward separation. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce emphasized the need for a united economy that addresses regional concerns. CAD 18:14 Housing Market Slumps as Fed Considers Further Rate Hikes The housing market is deteriorating, with pending home sales hitting record lows and housing starts declining sharply in September. Mortgage rates, already high at 7.43%, are expected to rise further with potential Fed rate hikes, worsening affordability. Goldman Sachs forecasts continued declines in residential investment and stagnant home sales. The Fed may hold rates steady next week but could hike in December and March 2027, balancing housing weakness against inflation concerns. USD 17:49 GSMA Report Calls for Telecom Policy Reset to Boost Canada’s Digital Growth The GSMA’s Mobile Economy Canada 2026 report shows the mobile industry generated $120 billion in economic value in 2025, with projections of $170 billion by 2030. The report calls for policy shifts to prioritize investment and innovation to maintain network quality and support AI-driven economic growth. The sector supports nearly 200,000 high-quality jobs in Canada, with 5G coverage reaching 94% of the population by mid-2026. CAD 17:15 Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Alberta Vote and Rate Hike Bets The Canadian dollar hit a four-week high on Tuesday, supported by a narrower interest rate gap with the U.S. and Alberta’s vote to remain in Canada. The loonie rose 0.5% to 1.4045 per U.S. dollar, with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a Bank of Canada rate hike next week. Alberta’s referendum result, which favored staying in Canada, also boosted market sentiment. Oil prices dipped slightly, while Canadian bond yields declined. USD GBP CAD 16:50 Canada cuts economic growth forecast amid U.S. tariffs and countermeasures The Parliamentary Budget Office has reduced its economic growth forecasts for Canada, now projecting 0.9% GDP growth for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027 due to new U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. The budgetary deficit is expected to reach $63.3 billion in 2026-27, peaking at $70.2 billion in 2027-28. The PBO also anticipates higher inflation in 2026, averaging 2.8%, before easing to 2.4% in 2027. The Bank of Canada is expected to raise its policy rate to 2.75% by mid-2027. CAD 16:21 Nordvig Warns of Market Risks from France’s Fiscal Uncertainty Jens Nordvig of Vanda has expressed concerns about France’s lack of a fiscal anchor, warning that it could unsettle markets. He discussed the issue on Bloomberg Surveillance, noting the impact of political instability and riots in France. Nordvig also touched on potential ECB actions to address the situation, though no specific measures were mentioned. His comments reflect broader worries about France’s economic stability and its implications for the Eurozone. EUR 15:45 U.S. Stocks Climb on Strong Earnings Amid Volatile AI Sector U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, led by strong earnings from Equifax, Hasbro, and Halliburton. Oil prices fell, benefiting airlines and easing inflation pressures. AI stocks remained volatile, with CoreWeave and Elice facing significant swings. European markets saw modest declines amid ongoing economic challenges. EUR 15:29 Euro Struggles as French Bond Tensions Weigh on Recovery Scotiabank strategists highlight the Euro's underperformance against its peers, citing tensions in Eurozone bond markets and an elevated French OAT/Bund spread near 150bps. The German ZEW survey indicates a slow recovery in the Eurozone economy, with the current situation improving slightly but expectations softening. EUR/USD is trading around 1.1212, with intraday support at 1.1175/80 and resistance at 1.1275. The Euro remains neutral, unable to capitalize on a weaker USD tone. EUR 14:36 Europe’s Youth Rise Up Against Cost of Living and Housing Crisis Protests are sweeping across Europe as young people grapple with rising living costs, unaffordable housing, and declining public services. Demonstrations in France, Italy, Spain, and Albania have turned violent, with demands for better education, healthcare, and employment. In Spain, housing protests have led to tent camps and an early election call, while Italy faces inflation and riots. Albania's anti-government protests demand an end to corruption and protections for public services. Right-wing politicians have blamed immigrants for the unrest, but authorities have not confirmed this. EUR 14:02 Warsh solidifies hawkish stance with Fed rate hikes and inflation focus Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chair, has established himself as a hawkish policymaker with recent rate hikes and a commitment to combating inflation. The FOMC meeting indicated one or two more rate hikes are likely, with Warsh emphasizing economic trends over individual data points. Fiscal deficits and geopolitical risks could drive up long-term yields, while markets anticipate further volatility. Investors should focus on income capture and maintain discipline in duration and credit beta. USD 13:41 Bank of America Warns of Rising Debt Costs from Higher Interest Rates Bank of America analysts warn that higher interest rates are increasing the cost of servicing the $40 trillion U.S. national debt, with Treasury payments hitting $2 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that a 1.5% rate increase would add $6 trillion to deficits and $4.9 trillion in net interest costs, while a 0.5% increase would add $1.9 trillion and $1.6 trillion, respectively. Bank of America estimates that every 100 basis points of Fed hikes adds $95 billion annually to interest expenses. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi also warns of a potential vicious cycle where higher rates lead to increased debt and further rate hikes. USD 13:13 RBC Weighs Blocking Meta’s Muse AI Agent Over Data Concerns Royal Bank of Canada is considering blocking Meta’s AI agent Muse from accessing its customer data, according to CEO Dave McKay. McKay mentioned the possibility in a Bloomberg Television interview but stressed that no final decision has been made. He emphasized the bank’s responsibility to protect customer information, highlighting the need to safeguard data privacy and security. CAD 12:37 European Youth Protests Escalate Over Soaring Living Costs Student protests across Europe, including France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, have escalated over rising living costs and cuts to public services. Everyday expenses have surged by 59% to 78% since 2000, with inflation peaking in 2022 due to energy price hikes. Real wages have stagnated or declined, particularly in Italy, while housing affordability has worsened. Public spending on education has decreased in some countries, fueling further unrest among young people. EUR 12:25 Bank of England Eyes AI Stress Tests for Financial Sector The Bank of England is discussing the possibility of stress testing the financial sector's ability to handle disruptions caused by artificial intelligence. AI-driven turmoil is being considered for the bank's next system-wide exploratory scenario, which evaluates the resilience of the UK's financial system against hypothetical threats. This move highlights the growing concern among regulators about the impact of advanced technologies on financial stability. GBP 11:45 Canadian Stock Futures Dip Awaiting Inflation Data Canadian stock futures edged lower on Monday as oil prices slipped, with investors awaiting inflation data for clues on interest rate movements. The TSX Composite Index gained 1.44% over the week, while the Canadian dollar strengthened to 71.03 cents U.S. U.S. stock futures showed mixed movements, with tech stocks leading a rebound. Concerns about the AI sector’s growth pace arose after Anthropic’s revenue report, and CoreWeave faced investor skepticism. Oil prices dropped slightly, while gold prices rose. CAD 11:18 ECB’s Rehn Notes Wider French-German Bond Spread European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated that the spread between French bond yields and German bunds has widened due to global and country-specific factors. Speaking in Finland’s parliament, Rehn noted that multiple nations are experiencing similar market pressures. The spread on French 10-year bonds over German debt reached 153 basis points, the widest since October 2, 2026. EUR 10:43 Treasury Yields Dip Ahead of Key Economic Data and Fed Decision U.S. Treasury yields declined slightly on Tuesday as investors awaited key economic data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. The 10-year yield fell to 5.114%, while the 30-year yield dropped to 5.45%. The 2-year yield remained flat at 4.757%. Investors are watching housing starts, jobless claims, and PMI data for further economic insights. The market currently assigns an 82% probability to the Fed holding interest rates steady. USD 10:10 Global Markets Dip as Geopolitical Risks and Earnings Loom Global markets retreated on Tuesday as geopolitical risks rattled investors ahead of key earnings reports from major companies. Oil prices rose due to tensions in the Gulf, with Brent crude climbing 1.73% to US$111.50 and WTI futures up 2% to US$100.50. The Canadian dollar strengthened slightly against the U.S. dollar, while gold prices fell. Economic data releases, including U.S. employment and housing reports, are also on investors' radars. USD GBP CAD 09:34 German Mortgage Rates Reach Highest Level Since 2009 Financial Crisis German mortgage rates have hit their highest level since 2009, with ten-year loan rates nearing 4.5%, driven by concerns over the Iran war and inflation. The ECB has raised interest rates twice this year, pushing its key deposit rate to 2.5%. Despite higher borrowing costs, house prices in Germany continue to rise, though new mortgage lending has declined. Interhyp and ING both highlight the chronic lack of housing supply as a key factor preventing a more significant price correction. EUR 09:25 Pound Climbs to One-Month High on Strong UK Jobs Data The British pound reached a one-month high of $1.335 after stronger-than-expected UK jobs data, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.7% and wage growth accelerating to 3.7%. The data follows recent signs of economic resilience, including a 0.1% expansion in August and a narrowing trade deficit. Investors now expect the Bank of England to raise rates to 4% on November 5, with Governor Andrew Bailey suggesting a rate hike may be imminent. GBP 08:32 Fed Chair Warsh Seeks to Reduce Market Reliance as Bond Market Grows Independent Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is shifting focus to the bank's non-monetary policy operations, aiming to reduce market reliance on the Fed. The bond market, now valued at $188 trillion globally, is operating more independently, making its own decisions rather than waiting for Fed rate guidance. This shift reflects the market's growing size and autonomy, affecting the broader economy. Warsh's approach aligns with the historic 'Punchbowl Speech' by William McChesney Martin, emphasizing the Fed's role as a regulator rather than a market participant. USD 08:09 Gold Climbs as Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Meeting Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. Spot gold reached $4,145.22 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures climbed to $4,164.70. Analysts suggest gold could benefit if the Fed keeps rates unchanged, with traders pricing in an 82% chance of no change next week. Other precious metals like silver and platinum also saw gains, while palladium declined slightly. USD JPY 07:42 Japan’s 20-year bond auction draws record demand on high yields Japan’s 20-year government bond auction on October 20, 2026, saw record demand with a bid-to-cover ratio of 5.84, driven by high yields and easing fiscal concerns. The yield for the 20-year tenor fell to 3.710%, and analysts noted increased buying from domestic institutional investors. The strong demand reflects confidence in the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes, with markets awaiting signals on further tightening at the upcoming policy meeting. JPY 07:24 UK Jobs Data Bolsters Case for Bank of England Rate Hikes The latest UK jobs data shows strong wage growth, strengthening the case for Bank of England rate hikes. Economists are watching closely as higher rates could impact borrowing costs and economic growth. Meanwhile, the Chancellor has ruled out increasing capital gains tax in the budget, which could affect investors and businesses. GBP 06:30 NAB Cuts 2,500 Jobs as Economic Pressures Mount National Australia Bank (NAB) is cutting 2,500 jobs to improve efficiency amid a challenging economic environment. Productivity growth has stagnated, and the Reserve Bank has hiked interest rates four times this year to combat inflation. The job cuts, part of a broader trend among Australia's big four banks, raise concerns about the broader economic impact, with analysts warning of potential recession if unemployment rises further. AUD 06:09 Gold Gains as Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Meeting Gold prices inched up on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, as investors awaited next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting for clues on interest rate changes. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,145.22 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery increased 0.1% to $4,164.70. The market's attention is on the Fed's upcoming meeting, which could influence gold's future trajectory. USD 05:36 Japan’s 20-year bond auction draws record demand on high yields Japan’s 20-year government bond auction on October 20, 2026, saw record demand with a bid-to-cover ratio of 5.84, driven by high yields and domestic investor interest. The yield fell to 3.710% after the auction. Analysts attributed the strong demand to easing fiscal concerns and life insurers increasing their net buying of super-long bonds. The rise in yields reflects ongoing fiscal worries, particularly around Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s planned tax cuts. Markets will watch the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting for signals on future rate hikes. JPY 05:20 Ares Warns of Rising Private Credit Stress in Australia Ares Management Corp. has cautioned that rising interest rates in Australia are increasing pressure on the private credit sector, particularly due to its ties to the struggling real estate market. The central bank has raised rates four times this year to 4.6%, with more hikes possible. Peter Graf, head of Asia direct lending at Ares, noted the added burden on private debt during the Citi Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney. NZD 04:44 China’s Push to Challenge Dollar Dominance with the Renminbi China is working to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar by strengthening the renminbi as a global reserve currency. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has called for accelerating this transformation, aiming to break the dollar’s monopoly and protect China from potential U.S. sanctions. The renminbi’s success depends on creating demand for a green economy-based anchor asset, though this would require significant changes to China’s financial markets. The dollar remains crucial for wealthy Chinese as political risk insurance. EUR 04:02 RBA staff reject 9.5 percent pay rise offer again Reserve Bank of Australia staff have rejected a 9.5 percent pay rise offer for the second time, with 54 percent voting against the proposal. The rejection, revealed in an internal email, puts pressure on governor Michele Bullock to offer a more generous deal while she urges wage restraint across the economy. The margin of rejection was 93 votes, highlighting internal tensions at the central bank. AUD 03:43 Dollar Drops as Fed Rate Decision Looms The US dollar index fell below 102 on Tuesday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook ahead of its October 27-28 meeting. Markets see an 83% chance of steady rates next week and a 94% likelihood of a December hike. The euro gained slightly amid efforts to contain European unrest, while the yen weakened despite hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. EUR USD JPY 03:10 Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Strengthen Amid European Unrest The Australian and New Zealand dollars held firm on Tuesday, supported by gains against European currencies following riots in France. The AUD traded at $0.6977, while the NZD stood at $0.5665. Investors await key interest rate developments, including the RBA's Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's appearance on Wednesday and the RBNZ's rate decision on October 28. Analysts predict a significant rise in core inflation for Australia, with markets pricing in a high probability of rate hikes in both countries. EUR GBP CHF AUD 02:36 Gold Dips Ahead of Fed Policy Decision Next Week Gold prices slipped in early Asian trade on Tuesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision next week. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,126.84 per ounce, while US gold futures dropped 0.3% to $4,146.00. Traders are pricing in an 83% chance of no rate change next week but a 94% likelihood of a hike in December. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted inflation is close to the 2% target, adding to market pressures. Other precious metals also declined. USD JPY 02:21 British Pound Strengthens as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Shift The British Pound is gaining ground against the US Dollar on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, as the USD weakens on expectations of unchanged Fed rates. The GBP is also strengthening due to increased bets on BoE rate hikes, with futures pricing in four hikes by July 2027. Investors are awaiting the UK budget announcement for fiscal discipline signals. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD at 1.3310, with a mildly bearish tone and key levels at 1.3349 and 1.3277. Fed Chair Warsh’s speech maintained a cautious tone, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index unchanged at 127.51. USD GBP 01:46 B.C. Conservatives' Late Platform Promises High Growth Amid Election Criticism The B.C. Conservatives released their costed platform late in the election campaign, projecting 3.2% economic growth by 2029 and promising to shrink the deficit to $10.8 billion by 2030. Critics, including the B.C. NDP, question the realism of these projections and warn of potential health-care cuts. Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson defends the numbers as achievable and denies plans to privatize health care. Economic uncertainty and the timing of the platform's release have also drawn scrutiny. CAD 01:25 EUR/USD Under Pressure from Inflation, Geopolitical Risks, and Rate Divergence Eurozone inflation rose to 3.8% in September, while US CPI accelerated to 3.7%, widening the interest rate differential in favor of the dollar. The 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.30% is making dollar-denominated assets more attractive. Geopolitical risks and France's political crisis are adding to the pressure on EUR/USD, which could fall to 1.05 in a worst-case scenario. Technical analysis suggests further declines are likely, with key support levels at 1.1178, 1.1083, and 1.0888. The upcoming Fed and ECB meetings will be crucial for the pair's direction. EUR USD 00:45 Gold Dips as Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Uncertainty Gold prices fell on October 19, 2026, to around $4,135 an ounce, as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and complicated the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Oil neared a five-month high after Iran threatened to control the Strait of Hormuz, while US lawmakers opposed a diesel export deal with Russia. The uncertainty over future rate hikes contributed to gold’s decline, despite its traditional role as an inflation hedge. USD 00:19 Value Partners Investments Takes New Position in Garmin Value Partners Investments Inc. purchased a new position in Garmin Ltd. (NYSE: GRMN) worth $2.98 million in the third quarter. Several institutional investors, including Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, Bank of America Corp DE, Amundi, SG Americas Securities LLC, and Swiss National Bank, also increased their stakes in Garmin. The company's stock traded up to $286.85 on Monday, with strong quarterly earnings and mixed analyst ratings. CHF

Monday, October 19

Times in UTC

23:43 Australian Dollar Climbs as China GDP Data Boosts Sentiment The Australian Dollar has risen for two straight days, trading at 0.6980, supported by strong Chinese GDP and Retail Sales data. China's economy grew 4.5% in Q3 2026, exceeding forecasts, while Retail Sales rose 1% in September. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, but a potential breakthrough could ease escalation. The US Dollar Index edged higher to 101.97, with Kevin Hassett acknowledging inflation concerns. Markets price in a near 91% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. USD AUD 23:00 Inflation Rises, Stelco Faces Legal Threats, and Mining Supercycle Begins Emerita Resources Corp. faces legal disputes and regulatory challenges despite its past success. Inflation in Canada rose to 3.1% year-over-year, driven by a 19% increase in energy prices. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem's hawkish comments suggest potential rate hikes. Stelco Holdings Inc. may face legal action over job commitments after idling its Hamilton plant. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson highlighted the importance of critical minerals in the current investment supercycle. CAD 22:34 AUD/JPY Gains on Bullish Chart Pattern Breakout The AUD/JPY pair is up 0.88% on Monday, trading above a bullish ‘falling wedge’ pattern. The pair could target resistance at 111.13 and 111.64-111.71, with potential upside to 112.00. Support levels are at 110.00, 109.00-109.30, and 108.64. The Japanese Yen’s value is influenced by the Bank of Japan’s policies and its role as a safe-haven currency. JPY AUD 22:29 Mixed Market Performance on October 19 2026 On Monday, October 19, 2026, North American stock indices showed mixed results with the TSX down 0.69% and the NASDAQ up 1.11%. Commodities like oil fell 0.26% while gold prices were flat. The Cyprus Pound/Swiss Franc pair saw a 1-year change of -1.60%. Currency conversion rates showed 1 CAD equal to 0.70888 USD and 1 USD equal to 1.41068 CAD. USD CHF CAD 21:34 Swedish Krona Gains as Markets Show Mixed Performance The Swedish Krona against the Japanese Yen rose by 0.15% over the past year. Major stock indices showed mixed results, with the TSX down 0.69% and the NASDAQ up 1.11%. Oil and gold prices declined by 0.48% and 0.5%, respectively. Notable TSX movers included ENB, which fell by 2.13%, and WCP, which rose by 0.45%. These fluctuations reflect the current state of global financial markets. JPY CAD 21:18 New Zealand Inflation Set to Rise Again Despite Third Quarter Dip New Zealand’s inflation is expected to ease slightly to 3.8% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 4.1% in the second quarter. However, a weaker currency and rising oil prices are likely to accelerate inflation in the final months of the year, increasing the likelihood of further rate hikes. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had projected a slightly higher inflation rate, and the upcoming report will reveal whether adjustments are needed. NZD 20:35 Simplicity invests $50 million in high-growth Kiwi companies fund Simplicity KiwiSaver is investing $50 million in Icehouse Ventures' Growth Fund III, which targets high-growth New Zealand companies. Icehouse Ventures CEO Robbie Paul sees this as a vote of confidence in New Zealand's investment opportunities. Other KiwiSaver providers, like Generate and Pie Funds, have also committed significant investments. The total commitment from KiwiSaver providers to Icehouse Ventures' funds has risen to at least $190 million. NZD 20:00 Canada Inflation Expected to Rise in September Amid Geopolitical Tensions Canadian inflation is expected to rise in September, with the headline CPI forecast to increase by 3.2% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month. The BoC’s core measure is anticipated to remain steady at 2.4% year-over-year. Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are likely to sustain inflationary pressures. The BoC is expected to keep interest rates at 2.25% on October 28, but Governor Tiff Macklem has hinted at potential rate hikes. The Canadian Dollar has been volatile against the US Dollar, with USD/CAD navigating a downward path after hitting yearly highs near 1.4300. USD CAD 19:37 Bank of Canada Rate Hike Expectations Rise Ahead of October Meeting Economists and traders are increasingly betting that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates to 2.50% at its October 28 meeting. This expectation follows surveys showing rising inflation expectations. The Bank of Montreal, RBC Dominion Securities, and Desjardins Group have all revised their forecasts accordingly. CAD 19:04 Barclays Defends Private Credit Reporting Amid BOE Scrutiny Barclays Plc has defended its reporting of private credit holdings after the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority reviewed whether the bank misrepresented illiquid private credit loans. Barclays stated that its treatment of total return swaps complies with accounting and regulatory requirements, and that it has £15 billion in private credit exposure. The bank emphasized that the vast majority of these holdings are in the banking book. GBP 18:59 Canada Inflation Rises to 3.1 Per Cent on Gasoline Price Surge Canada’s inflation rate rose to 3.1 per cent in September, primarily due to a 27.8 per cent spike in gasoline prices. Core inflation measures remained steady around two per cent, indicating that price increases are largely contained. Grocery prices moderated, with a 1.7 per cent year-over-year increase, the smallest rise since May 2024. Regional inflation varied, with the Maritime provinces above five per cent and Ontario at 2.5 per cent. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem warned of risks from high energy prices but suggested no immediate need for rate hikes. CAD 18:23 Bank of Japan eyes shift to sustaining 2% inflation target The Bank of Japan is preparing to shift its focus from achieving a 2% inflation rate to maintaining stable inflation around that target. Governor Kazuo Ueda recently attended international meetings in Bangkok, emphasizing the bank's cautious approach. The government remains wary of declaring victory over inflation, highlighting the delicate balance the BOJ must maintain to avoid economic instability. JPY 17:37 Bank of Canada Reports Mixed Business Outlook Amid New Tariffs The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter business outlook survey shows improved sentiment but highlights concerns over rising costs and geopolitical tensions. New U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs, announced after trade talks broke down, are increasing inflation expectations and dampening business outlooks. About half of firms plan to pass on cost increases to customers, while competitive pressures limit price hikes. Business investment intentions remain robust, and consumer financial health has improved, though high prices and economic uncertainty persist. The reports precede the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest rate decision on October 28, 2026. CAD 17:00 Canada Inflation Hits 3.1% as Fuel Prices Surge Canada's inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August, driven by a 58% jump in fuel oil prices and a 27.8% increase in gasoline costs. Grocery prices saw their smallest annual rise since May 2024, while shelter costs increased 1.8%. The Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates on October 28, with markets pricing in a quarter-point hike by year-end. Governor Tiff Macklem warned that high global energy prices will continue to push up inflation. CAD 16:36 Canadian Mortgage Rates Climb Despite Bank of Canada Rate Hold Mortgage rates in Canada are rising due to higher government bond yields, even as the Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate unchanged. A half-point increase on a $500,000 mortgage adds about $137 monthly. EQB, parent of Equitable Bank, faces challenges from higher mortgage pricing and credit risks. Investors are advised to budget carefully and consider the business risk profile of mortgage lenders. CAD 16:03 TSX Dips as Financials and Miners Weigh on Market Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.94 per cent on Monday, dragged down by financials and mining stocks, as investors assessed softer-than-expected inflation data. The CPI rose 3.1 per cent year-over-year, below expectations. Traders now see a 68-per-cent chance of a Bank of Canada rate hike next week. Meanwhile, AI stocks rebounded in the U.S., with the Nasdaq composite up 0.9 per cent, led by gains in CoreWeave and Nvidia. CAD 15:58 Bank of Canada Surveys Signal Rising Inflation Expectations Bank of Canada surveys show rising inflation expectations and firms planning to pass on higher costs to customers. Business sentiment has improved, and sales outlooks have brightened in the third quarter. The bank's outlook indicator rose slightly to minus 0.33, despite the collapse of US-Canada trade talks at the end of August. CAD 15:00 Macklem Warns of Rising Inflation Pressures Amid Global Energy Crunch Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem warned that global economic resilience is under strain due to high energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict. He expects inflation in Canada to be higher than previously forecast, with the central bank set to release updated projections on Oct. 28. Macklem indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflationary pressures persist. Despite challenges, he expressed confidence in Canada's economic stability and investment recovery. CAD 14:37 Canadian Inflation Ticks Up to 3.1% in September Canadian inflation rose to 3.1% year-over-year in September, driven by higher energy prices, while food inflation continued to moderate. The Bank of Canada faces a delicate balance between a soft economy and rising inflation risks. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged the increasing risk of broader inflation pressures. RBC forecasts the Bank of Canada will hold rates unchanged through 2026 before gradual hikes in 2027, but recent communication suggests more urgency. CAD 14:13 Fed Officials Warn AI Boom Could Fuel Long-Term Inflation Federal Reserve officials are treating the AI investment boom as a lasting source of inflation, with price pressures spreading beyond the tech sector. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the situation as 'aggregate overheating,' while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted the dual impact of AI on prices and demand. The AI industry is expected to invest about $1 trillion next year, with providers spending close to $1 trillion on infrastructure in 2026. September consumer prices rose 3.7% year-over-year, raising the odds of an October rate hike. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI is adding about 45 basis points to core PCE inflation, with the effect expected to peak at 50 basis points by year-end. USD 13:31 Dollar rises as French protests weigh on euro The dollar edged up in early Asian trading on Monday as violent protests in France pressured the euro. The euro fell 0.25% to $1.1210, with concerns over political stability and high energy prices driving the decline. Investors are reassessing the forex market outlook, particularly the impact of AI-driven spending on US economic growth. Analysts note that the dollar's strength is tied to the Fed's response to inflation, with markets pricing in an 87% chance of unchanged rates this month. Brent crude futures slipped but remained above $100, while natural gas prices hit a four-year high at €89.13. EUR 13:11 Richmond Fed Team Honored with Prestigious Supervision Award Three employees from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond received the 2025 William Taylor Award for Excellence in Bank Supervision. Nika Lazaryan, Dengli (Jay) Yang, and Andrew Martindale were recognized for their contributions to bank supervision, including work on the pre-provision net revenue model suite and Martindale's 17-year career in supervision. The award honors outstanding achievements in ensuring the banking system's safety and resilience. USD 12:56 Canada Inflation Rises to 3.1% on Gasoline Price Surge Canada's inflation rate increased to 3.1% in September due to a 27.8% annual rise in gasoline prices, up from 22.8% in August. Core inflation measures eased, indicating mixed economic pressures. The data suggests volatility in energy costs while broader inflation trends may be stabilizing. The Bank of Canada will likely factor these figures into future policy decisions. CAD 12:29 Morgan Stanley’s Sheets Says Markets Rightly Lowering ECB Hike Expectations Andrew Sheets, global head of fixed income research at Morgan Stanley, stated that markets are rightfully lowering expectations for ECB interest rate hikes due to volatility in French bonds and equities. He discussed how this uncertainty is shaping the ECB’s policy outlook and influencing Morgan Stanley’s approach to European markets. EUR 11:43 U.S. Economy Shows Stark Divide Between AI Boom and Main Street Struggles The U.S. economy is showing a split personality, with massive AI investments contrasting against the struggles of everyday Americans. Inflation is driven by supply-side issues like energy prices, which interest rates can't easily fix. AI spending is estimated to reach US$800 billion this year, but consumers are cutting back as inflation erodes wages. The housing market is also suffering, with sales near record lows and affordability at crisis levels. USD 11:14 Trump Waives Russian Oil Tariffs as Brent Prices Slip Brent crude oil prices dropped on Monday after US President Donald Trump waived tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, taking some premium out of crude despite rising tensions in the Middle East. US equities ended Friday at the week’s lows, with the Nasdaq falling 2.14% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index down 3.83%. In Europe, French riots have pushed budget risks into OAT spreads and euro crosses, while China’s third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, slightly above expectations. Jakarta’s benchmark fell 4.9% after MSCI said Indonesia’s emerging-market status is no longer appropriate. EUR 10:32 Canada braces for September inflation data ahead of rate decision Statistics Canada is set to release September inflation figures today, with economists expecting a rise to 3.2 percent from 3 percent in August. High energy prices are the primary driver, but analysts will watch for broader inflationary pressures. The data comes ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on October 28, where officials may hike rates if inflation spreads. The central bank will also release consumer and business surveys to gauge cost-passing intentions. CAD 10:05 Global Markets Mixed as AI Funding Concerns Weigh on Investors Global markets were mixed as AI funding concerns weighed on investor confidence. Wall Street futures were positive after a sharp decline on Friday, while TSX futures pointed lower ahead of September inflation data. Economist My Bui noted worries about AI revenues and infrastructure depreciation. Oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump waived sanctions on Russia, potentially increasing fuel exports. China’s third-quarter GDP grew 4.5 per cent, beating forecasts, and Canada’s consumer price index for September was expected to rise 0.2 per cent monthly. EUR USD GBP CAD 09:32 Next New Zealand Government Faces Critical Natural Hazard Challenges New Zealand's next government must address natural hazards like floods and earthquakes, which pose significant economic and social risks. The 2023 Auckland floods caused over NZ$2 billion in insured losses, and ongoing development in hazard-prone areas like South Auckland raises concerns. Experts argue that investing in resilience now can save future costs, but sustained funding remains a challenge. The next government's decisions will shape the country's preparedness and recovery from natural disasters. NZD 09:04 AI Jitters Test Dollar's Safe Haven Appeal Amid Market Volatility AI-related jitters are challenging the US dollar's safe-haven status, with USD two-year rates dropping 25 basis points since October 14. The dollar may lag other G10 currencies if stock market instability originates in tech or AI sectors, but a major decline is not expected. In Europe, EUR/USD is struggling due to French protests, while Canada's inflation data suggests a possible December rate hike. Markets are closely monitoring AI, France, and Ukraine this week. EUR USD CAD 08:55 Treasury Yields Dip Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty Treasury yields fell on Monday as investors assessed U.S. inflation data and geopolitical developments. The 10-year yield dropped to 5.0729%, while the 30-year yield declined to 5.4122%. Inflation concerns persisted after last week’s data showed wholesale prices rising 6.3% annually. Energy prices also fell, with WTI crude down 2.05% and Brent crude down 2.65%. Traders now see an 85% chance the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its October 28 meeting. USD 08:26 US Dollar Bulls Face Extreme Short Positioning Across FX Majors Futures traders increased their bullish US dollar exposure for a fourth week, while bearish bets against the euro, pound, and Australian dollar reached fresh extremes. The US dollar index showed signs of losing momentum, but any recovery against the greenback could be limited by Fed tightening expectations. EUR/USD and GBP/USD shorts hit decade-high levels, while the Swiss franc stabilized at a pivotal support level. AUD/USD appears vulnerable, with gross shorts reaching record highs, contrasting with stabilization in CAD and NZD. EUR USD GBP CHF 07:42 Taiwan Dollar Poised for Year-End Rally Despite AI Selloff The Taiwan dollar is under pressure from global AI stock selloffs but analysts predict a rebound to 31.50-31.80 per US dollar by year-end, supported by strong economic fundamentals. Record trade surpluses and robust growth are offset by foreign capital outflows and a strong US dollar. The Central Bank of the Republic of China may aim to keep the currency within a 31.5-32.5 range. Near-term volatility is expected, but medium-term prospects remain favorable due to strong export momentum and external balances. USD 07:12 Gold prices rise as oil softens and Fed rate hike looms Gold prices edged higher on Monday due to softer oil prices, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate hike and policy signals. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,175.60 per ounce, and US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $4,196.40. USD 06:50 Euro area inflation surges to 3.8% in September 2026 Inflation in the Euro area hit 3.8% in September 2026, with energy prices rising 18.8% due to the Middle East war. The EU and member states have introduced measures to mitigate the impact, but higher costs are being passed on to consumers, worsening the cost-of-living crisis. House prices and rents have also surged, sparking protests. Some countries have asked for fiscal flexibility, but the EU has refused. EUR 06:26 Takaichi denies responsibility for weak yen and high interest rates Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has rejected criticism linking her policies to the yen's weakness and rising interest rates. She pledged to strengthen the economy to restore confidence in the yen, which has fallen to its lowest level since 1986. Takaichi also addressed concerns about government bond issuance, stating that her administration would control the amount issued. Experts remain skeptical about the government's ability to increase spending without issuing more debt. JPY 05:55 Euro Holds Near $1.1230 as French Unrest Weighs on Recovery The euro traded near $1.1230 on Monday as political unrest in France disrupted potential economic recovery. Over 500,000 protesters demonstrated against high living costs and declining public services, with President Macron's appeal for calm failing. ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that higher borrowing costs could slow growth, while traders anticipate a 92% chance of a December Fed rate hike. The upcoming October PMIs will be key in assessing business activity in Europe and the US. EUR USD 05:10 Bank of England investigates Barclays over compliance concerns The Bank of England is scrutinizing Barclays over concerns about its activities and compliance with regulations. The bank is cooperating with the investigation, which could impact its operations and stock performance. No specific details have been disclosed, but the move highlights regulatory vigilance in the financial sector. GBP 04:41 Gold Climbs on Softer Oil Prices and Fed Rate Hike Speculation Gold prices edged higher on Monday due to softer oil prices, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve's potential rate hikes. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,175.60 per ounce, while US gold futures gained 0.4% to $4,196.40. Analysts suggest that lower oil prices and yields could further support gold by easing inflation concerns. Traders are pricing in a 16% chance of a rate hike this month and a 92% chance in December. Other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium also saw gains. EUR USD 04:26 Takaichi rejects blame for weak yen and high interest rates Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi denied responsibility for the weak yen and high interest rates, emphasizing fiscal sustainability. Market concerns persist over Japan's economic policies, particularly after earlier drafts suggested expansionary measures. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted rising inflation and potential yield increases if rate adjustments lag. The government faces challenges in funding new spending without worsening debt levels. JPY 03:32 Gold Struggles to Break $4,200 Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty Gold is struggling to surpass $4,200 amid mixed influences from a weakening USD and easing geopolitical tensions. Civil unrest in Europe and cautious remarks from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh are keeping the precious metal under pressure. However, strong Chinese economic data and falling Oil prices are providing some support. Technically, Gold faces resistance near $4,191 and $4,239, with support around $4,000. EUR USD 03:15 Euro Drops as Ukraine Tensions and France Protests Spook Markets The euro fell against most of its Group-of-10 peers on Monday, October 19, 2026, due to escalating tensions in Ukraine and violent protests in France. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused U.S. President Donald Trump of pressuring Kyiv to surrender to Russia, while protests in France turned into clashes with police. The euro weakened as much as 0.5% against the dollar in early Asian trading, reflecting deepening worries about fiscal health and geopolitical risks. EUR 02:34 RBA Official Questions Rate Restraint Amid Inflation Pressures Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent questioned whether the current 4.6% cash rate is restrictive enough, despite four hikes this year. Rising global neutral interest rates suggest the rate may be exerting less economic drag than expected, potentially justifying higher rates. The RBA is considering its next move amid persistent inflation and labor market easing, with unemployment at a five-year high of 4.7%. AUD 02:25 ECB’s Sleijpen Warns of Narrowing Window to Limit Global Warming European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen said on Monday that the chance to limit global warming to 1.5°C as per the Paris Agreement is almost gone. Speaking in Manila, he warned that the remaining carbon budget is nearly exhausted, leaving the world to choose between a bad but manageable outcome and one that is uncontrollable. Sleijpen’s remarks highlight the urgency of immediate action to address climate change. EUR 01:34 RBA Names NAB COO Rachael Phelan as Chief Risk Officer The Reserve Bank of Australia has named Rachael Phelan, the Chief Operating Officer of National Australia Bank, as its new chief risk officer. The announcement was made in a statement on Wednesday. Phelan's appointment is aimed at bolstering the RBA's risk management capabilities ahead of 2027. Her extensive experience at NAB is expected to be instrumental in addressing the bank's evolving economic and regulatory challenges. AUD 01:10 Nscale’s £2 Billion Data Centre Rises Near London’s Banknote Facility Nscale plans to build a £2 billion ($3.8 billion) data centre in Essex, near London, symbolizing the AI-driven demand for data infrastructure. The site’s proximity to the Bank of England’s banknote facility underscores the industry’s perceived profitability. The project is led by Josh Payne, a former coal miner, reflecting broader economic transitions. The article was authored by Andrew Tillett of The Australian Financial Review. GBP 00:37 Australian Dollar Strengthens as Fed Hike Bets Fade The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strengthening against the US Dollar (USD) as Fed rate hike expectations fade, with markets pricing in an 83.9% chance of no change at the upcoming October meeting. RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent noted rising neutral rates but questioned policy restrictiveness. Traders await Chinese economic data, which could influence the AUD. UOB Group sees a negative technical tone for AUD/USD, with downward momentum increasing but not yet strong. Fed Chair Warsh delivered a cautious speech, highlighting AI demand risks while keeping policy options open. USD AUD 00:06 Gold Gains as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Dim After Warsh Remarks Gold prices rose on October 18, 2026, as traders reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month after comments from Chair Kevin Warsh. Bullion was trading at $4,180 an ounce, up from a 0.7% decline the prior week. The probability of a quarter-point rate hike dropped to less than one-in-five following Warsh's remarks, which suggested keeping rates on hold. Higher borrowing costs are a challenge for gold, which does not pay interest. USD

Sunday, October 18

Times in UTC

23:55 Euro Weakens on French Fiscal Risks and Political Unrest The Euro is weakening against the US Dollar amid fiscal risks in France, where the debt risk premium has surged and protests have turned violent. ECB President Christine Lagarde urged France to address its structural problems. Spain's upcoming election adds to Eurozone instability. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not signal future rate decisions, with markets pricing in an 83.9% chance of unchanged rates. Nordea analysts expect two more ECB rate hikes and see modest upside for longer EUR yields. EUR USD 23:10 UK house prices rise despite affordability challenges and economic pressures The average UK house price has reached £258,129, with strong growth in some areas but affordability remaining a challenge. Ceredigion saw the largest price drop of 9%, while Anglesey had the biggest rise of 22.2%. First-time buyers in Cardiff face prices equivalent to four-and-a-half times household income, compared to three-and-a-half times in Blaenau Gwent. The market shows resilience despite economic pressures, but rising mortgage rates and expected interest rate hikes may impact future affordability. GBP 22:47 Hungary’s Euro Adoption Plan Faces Five Key Readiness Tests Hungary’s government, elected in April 2026, aims to adopt the euro by around 2030. A Bruegel report outlines five domestic readiness tests to assess the country’s preparedness, emphasizing fiscal consolidation, institutional repair, and addressing productivity and credit distortions. Premature entry into the euro area could risk economic instability, so the report advises a gradual adjustment process with credible domestic reforms. Hungary must meet both the Maastricht criteria and these readiness tests to ensure a successful transition. EUR 22:15 Global Economy Shifts from Neo-Liberalism to Mercantilism The global economy is moving from neo-liberalism to mercantilism due to the dominance of the US Dollar and Euro as reserve currencies. Countries outside this system have struggled, leading to efforts like the Euro and Petro-Yuan to counter the dominance. The transition to mercantilism is already happening, with central banks stockpiling gold and supply chains being redrawn based on national security. Power in the new multipolar order will be determined by real assets rather than printed currencies. EUR USD 21:33 NZ Economic Stagnation Tied to Borrowing for Consumption New Zealand's GDP per capita is not expected to recover to its 2022/23 peak until the 2027/28 financial year, highlighting a prolonged economic stagnation. The government has borrowed nearly $100 billion for consumption over nine years, raising concerns among international lenders. The article suggests that distinguishing between consumption and investment could help avoid further economic contraction and boost productive capacity. NZD 21:19 Authorities Warn of Cryptocurrency Love Scams Targeting Online Daters Philippine and Australian authorities have warned about a surge in love scams involving cryptocurrency, where scammers use fake profiles on dating apps to manipulate victims into investing money. Victims are often convinced to transfer funds ranging from 300 to 800 Australian dollars to the scammers' crypto accounts. Authorities advise caution in online interactions, avoiding financial transactions with strangers, and reporting suspicious activity. Love scams have been linked to banned Philippine offshore gaming operators and remain a significant cybercrime issue in the Philippines. AUD 20:33 New Zealand’s next government must tackle rising natural hazard risks New Zealand’s next government must address growing natural hazard risks, which include floods, earthquakes, and wildfires exacerbated by climate change. The 2023 Auckland floods caused over NZ$2 billion in insured losses, highlighting the need for better land-use policies. Despite advancements in hazard science, development continues in high-risk areas, such as South Auckland’s flood-prone land. Investing in resilience could save significant costs, but funding remains insufficient. The choices made by the next government will shape New Zealand’s preparedness and long-term resilience. NZD 20:17 New Zealand Dollar Faces Fifth Quarter of Decline The New Zealand dollar has dropped for five straight quarters and may weaken past its March 2020 low of 54.7 US cents. Analysts cite slowing growth and political uncertainty ahead of a close election as key factors. ACCM Prime and Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. predict further declines for the kiwi. NZD 19:59 Alberta referendum sparks debate over secession and economic risks Garth Turner shared a past story about funding a patriotic rendition of <i>O Canada</i>, then discussed Mark Carney’s popularity in Alberta. He criticized the upcoming referendum on Alberta’s potential secession, calling it impractical and highlighting the economic risks, including $300 billion in debt and loss of social benefits. Turner argued that Alberta’s independence would leave it economically vulnerable, akin to smaller U.S. states. CAD 19:21 New Zealand Dollar Faces Critical Test Amid Election Uncertainty The New Zealand dollar is at risk of falling past its March 2020 low of 54.7 US cents, according to analysts at ACCM Prime and Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. Slowing growth and an uncertain election are contributing to downward pressure on the currency. The kiwi has already declined for five straight quarters, and the upcoming CPI data could be a decisive factor in its future trajectory. NZD 18:35 RBA Faces Inflation Dilemma as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran War The Reserve Bank of Australia is concerned that the war against Iran is pushing up oil prices, which could keep inflation elevated and force higher interest rates. Oil prices closed last week at $US106 a barrel, and diesel prices have surged to levels seen during the Russia-Ukraine war. Commodity prices, including LNG, wheat, soybeans, sugar, and cocoa, have also risen due to the conflict and weather conditions. Unemployment in Australia reached a five-year high of 4.7 per cent in September, leading markets to reduce expectations of further interest rate hikes. The RBA faces a difficult choice between controlling inflation and supporting the economy. AUD 18:09 RBA Governor Faces Inflation Policy Scrutiny Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock is under increasing pressure as inflation is forecast to stay above the 2.5 per cent target for seven years until late 2028. During a recent press conference, Bullock acknowledged that rate hikes have far-reaching effects beyond mortgage holders. The prolonged inflation period has sparked debate over the effectiveness of monetary policy in addressing economic challenges. AUD 17:54 Key Canadian business events to watch this week Albertans vote Monday on a potential separation referendum, while Unifor reveals a Stellantis strike vote result. Statistics Canada's September inflation data and the Bank of Canada's business outlook survey are also due Monday. Rogers Communications reports third-quarter earnings Friday after completing its full ownership of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment. CAD 17:07 European Student Protests Spread Amid Rising Political Consciousness Student protests have swept across Europe in September and October 2026, driven by issues like education funding, housing costs, and political repression. France's protests, which began on 17 September, inspired similar actions in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Austria, Greece, and Spain. The Serbian student movement, sparked by a 2024 tragedy, has entered the electoral arena ahead of the 25 October parliamentary election. These protests reflect a new political consciousness shaped by recent crises. EUR 16:44 EUR/USD Rebounds at Critical Support After Five-Week Slide EUR/USD has snapped a five-week losing streak after a 5% decline from August highs, reaching a critical support zone at 1.1110/63. While the broader outlook remains bearish, the decline may be vulnerable while above this level. Key resistance levels are at 1.1276 and 1.1355/65, with a breach above needed to suggest a more significant low. Upcoming PMI data for both the Eurozone and the U.S. could shape expectations ahead of the Fed and ECB rate decisions later this month. EUR USD 16:20 ITAT rules in favor of NRI after tax officer's currency mix-up A Dubai-based NRI, Kavita Khanwani, won relief from a ₹3.41 crore income tax addition after the ITAT Jaipur found that the assessing officer had mistaken yen figures for rupees. The tribunal upheld the deletion of the addition, noting that bank records established the source of the deposits and the tax department had accepted the explanation in her husband's case. The deposits, denominated in yen, were funded through a joint NRE savings account, and the actual rupee amount invested was about ₹2 crore. The ITAT dismissed the tax department's appeal, ruling that the same deposits could not be treated as unexplained money in Khanwani's case. JPY 15:53 Rare 2-euro coins could be worth thousands Some 2-euro coins, particularly rare commemorative editions or those with minting errors, can be worth significantly more than their face value. The 2007 Monaco coin honoring Princess Grace Kelly is valued at around 3,100 euros, while errors like the fried-egg strike or misstruck coins can fetch up to 650 euros. Experts advise against cleaning or polishing potential finds, as this can reduce their value. The European Central Bank’s website can help verify authentic commemorative coins. EUR 15:07 100 NZD to DEGEN Exchange Rate Dips 0.58% on Bybit On October 18, 2026, 100 NZD converted to approximately 59,702.51995575 DEGEN on Bybit, marking a 0.58% decrease in the past 24 hours. The BTC to NZD exchange rate was stable at $597.0251995575486. Bybit offers zero conversion fees, proof of reserves, and 24/7 support for its users. NZD 14:31 Government delays credit card tax ban after small business backlash The Australian Tax Office announced a ban on credit card payments for tax bills, set to take effect in December, following the Reserve Bank of Australia's ban on credit card surcharges. Small business owners criticized the short notice, with only eight weeks to adjust before the holiday season. The government delayed the ban until the next financial year after backlash, citing the need for more consultation. Over 2.8 million small businesses in Australia face cash flow challenges, and the sudden policy change threatened to worsen their struggles. AUD 14:11 Bank of Canada Warns of Global Economic Strain Amid Persistent Shocks Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem stated that the global economy has shown resilience despite recent shocks but is now under strain due to ongoing conflicts and rising energy prices. He warned that countries cannot indefinitely tap into global oil reserves. The Bank of Canada awaits the September inflation report for further clarity on domestic price responses. CAD 13:32 Bond Market Stress Puts These 3 Financial Stocks in Focus Bond market stress is affecting financial institutions involved in primary dealing and fixed-income market-making. Raymond James Financial (RJF), UMB Financial (UMBF), and Stifel Financial (SF) are key stocks to watch due to their exposure to this environment. Raymond James is investing heavily in AI, UMB Financial is benefiting from acquisition synergies, and Stifel Financial is focused on attracting experienced advisers. The impact of bond market stress on these firms' earnings and margins will be crucial for investors to monitor. GBP 13:00 Fonterra CFO Andrew Murray Steps Down to Pursue External Role Fonterra CFO Andrew Murray has resigned to pursue an external role, prompting an immediate search for his successor. Murray will remain in his position through the end of 2026 to ensure a smooth transition. The cooperative is focusing on divesting its global consumer operations to redirect capital toward core business-to-business platforms. Fonterra shares remained stable around NZ$5.42 following the announcement. The cooperative aims to distribute net cash proceeds from the divestment to supplying shareholders through capital returns and debt retirement. NZD 12:53 Lagarde Urges Putin to End War for Economic Growth European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde confronted Russia’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov, in Bangkok, urging him to tell President Vladimir Putin that war impedes prosperity and economic growth. The private meeting took place before the International Monetary Fund’s advisory body session on Saturday. Lagarde emphasized that peace is essential for sustainable economic development. EUR 12:01 RBA Faces Inflation Dilemma as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran War The Reserve Bank of Australia is grappling with the threat of elevated inflation due to rising oil prices fueled by the war against Iran. Senior sources within the bank are concerned that oil prices, currently at $US106 a barrel, show no signs of falling, posing a dilemma between raising interest rates to combat inflation or risking higher unemployment. Commodity prices, including LNG, wheat, soybeans, sugar, and cocoa, have also surged due to the war and adverse weather conditions. Weaker job figures and higher diesel prices add to the economic challenges, with central banks worldwide lifting interest rates in response to climbing inflation. AUD 11:32 USD Consolidates as Economic Data Strengthens and Political Shifts Unfold The US dollar is consolidating despite strong economic data, with the ISM services index and private sector employment both showing improvement. Republican election losses may lead to an end of the government shutdown. European currencies were stable, with USD/CHF expected to test resistance at 0.82. USD/JPY rose slightly, approaching resistance at 155, as Japan's labour cash earnings accelerated. USD JPY CHF 11:23 Bank of Canada faces pivotal data ahead of live rate decision These data drops will influence the central bank's policy choices, with analysts watching closely for signals on future rate adjustments. The tight timeline between the data releases and the decision could add complexity to the bank's deliberations. Market sectors like real estate and consumer loans may see heightened volatility in response to the upcoming announcements. CAD 10:44 IFP Advisors Boosts Zillow Group Stake by 97% in Third Quarter IFP Advisors Inc boosted its holdings in Zillow Group by 97% in the third quarter, now owning 469,184 shares worth $12,729,000. Other institutional investors like Tiger Global Management LLC and Dimensional Fund Advisors LP also increased their stakes. Zillow Group's stock opened at $30.82 on Friday, with a market cap of $6.93 billion. The company recently beat earnings estimates but has a mixed rating from analysts with an average price target of $57.71. CHF 10:19 Japan Set to Drop to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings by 2027 Japan's nominal GDP is projected to fall to sixth place globally in 2027, overtaken by India and the United Kingdom, according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook report. The decline is primarily due to the yen's depreciation and slower economic growth. In 2025, Japan was ranked fourth, behind the U.S., China, and Germany. The IMF estimates Japan's GDP at 4,341.9 billion dollars in 2026 and 4,467.6 billion dollars in 2027, while India's GDP is expected to reach 4,521.1 billion dollars in 2027. JPY 09:52 ECB Warns Bond Selloff Will Slow Euro Zone Inflation ECB President Christine Lagarde said a bond selloff is increasing borrowing costs in the euro zone, which could slow economic growth and inflation. The ECB has raised interest rates twice in the last four months and expects another hike in December to 2.75%. Policymaker Joachin Nagel hinted at further tightening, while Olli Rehn warned of potential second-round effects from energy inflation. EUR 09:17 George Ward Tjungurrayi's 2017 Painting Listed at 12,900 USD George Ward Tjungurrayi, an Indigenous Australian artist born around 1947 and who passed away in 2023, created the painting Untitled, Mamultjulkulnga in 2017. The artwork, measuring 91 x 46 cm, is listed for 12,900 USD and available through D Lan Galleries in Melbourne, Sydney, and New York. The piece reflects Tjungurrayi's cultural heritage and artistic style. USD 08:35 Global Markets Struggle in September 2026 Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions Global equity markets faced downward pressure in September 2026 due to surging government bond yields and rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 declined 0.5%, the FTSE 100 fell 2.0%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.7%. The Australian All Ordinaries Index dropped 3.3%, with the WA Index underperforming at a 5.2% decline due to its exposure to mining companies. Persistent inflation and tighter monetary policies weighed on investor sentiment, although AI-related stocks provided some support. USD JPY GBP 08:16 US import prices surge in September amid rising inflation pressures US import prices rose 1.1% in September, the largest annual gain in over four years, driven by higher energy and goods costs. The increase, higher than expected, reflects persistent inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and President Trump’s policies. Economists blame tariffs and the ongoing war for rising living costs, with 78% of Americans sharing this view. Despite inflation, markets anticipate the Federal Reserve will hold off on a rate hike this month but tighten policy in December. Imported fuel prices rebounded 4.8%, while capital goods and consumer goods prices also saw increases. USD 07:32 Hedgehogs chosen for Bank of England notes after public vote Hedgehogs have been selected to appear on future Bank of England notes after winning a public vote, delighting wildlife rescuers in Sussex. The East Sussex Wildlife Rescue and Ambulance Service praised the decision, highlighting the unique personalities of hedgehogs. The Bank of England announced the winning designs earlier this month, marking the first time since 1970 that historical figures will not appear on the reverse side of banknotes. The new notes will feature animals like the barn owl, buff-tailed bumblebee, European hedgehog, and Atlantic puffin to showcase UK wildlife. GBP 07:16 Standard Chartered Stays Defensive Amid Hot US Inflation Data Standard Chartered has maintained a defensive stance on equities following a hotter-than-expected US inflation report that caused the Nasdaq-100's largest weekly decline in three months. The firm upgraded Healthcare to Overweight and downgraded Communication Services to Neutral, citing better earnings visibility in Healthcare. The September US inflation data showed headline CPI at 3.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, reviving speculation about an October Fed rate hike, though the firm expects a hold this month and a December hike if inflation remains firm. Equities have pulled back but not yet reached capitulation levels, with the Nasdaq 100 down 4.5% from its record high. The firm sees opportunities in the US 10-year government bond, expecting yields to range between 5.00% and 5.25%, and remains cautious on equities until there are clearer signs of AI profit margins and spending guidance. USD 06:31 Hedgehogs chosen for Bank of England notes after public vote Hedgehogs won a public vote to appear on future Bank of England notes, beating red foxes by 15,000 votes out of nearly half a million participants. Wildlife rescuers praised the result, highlighting the unique personalities of hedgehogs and hoping the campaign raises awareness for native wildlife. The Bank of England will feature the hedgehog along with other animals like the barn owl and Atlantic puffin, marking the first time since 1970 that historical figures won't appear on the reverse side of notes. GBP 06:19 USD/JPY Stuck in Low-Volatility Range Amid Market Calm The USD/JPY pair remains range-bound with extremely low volatility, showing little response to recent market movements. Despite a sharp decline in US Treasury yields and dollar weakness, the yen has failed to strengthen significantly. Next week's economic calendar is light, with flash PMIs and Japan's national inflation report being the main events. Technically, the pair is stuck between key moving averages, with immediate support at 157.50 and resistance near 159.00. USD JPY AUD 05:31 Hedge Funds Heighten Risk of Global Bond Market Shock Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden warned that hedge funds' increased presence and leverage in global bond markets raise the risk of broader financial shocks. The IMF also cautioned about the potential for market stress to spill over into other financial sectors. Hedge funds now hold a record 7% of the U.S. Treasury market, and recent yield spikes in Treasurys, gilts, and OATs highlight growing concerns about sovereign debt stability. GBP 05:18 Tokyo sleep competition awards 2.22 million yen to top snoozer Tokyo hosted a "sleep-off" competition on October 5, 2026, where 65 participants competed for a 2.22-million-yen prize. Organized by Koala, the event measured sleep quality and resilience to disruptions. The winner was a 24-year-old woman who slept through interruptions. The contest drew over 47,000 applicants and was livestreamed on Niconico, highlighting Japan's growing interest in sleep health. JPY 04:59 Bond rates drop on hot inflation data signaling possible market bottom Long-term bond rates fell last week despite a rise in US inflation, a move some see as a potential market bottom. The author recalls an old market adage that suggests when prices stop responding to news, it may signal a top or bottom. The unusual reaction could indicate a buying opportunity for bonds and other assets hit by rising yields. USD 04:04 Waters Demands Fed Clarify Kraken's Master Account Approval U.S. Representative Maxine Waters has asked the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City to explain how Kraken Financial received a limited-purpose master account, requesting details on access, conditions, and consumer protection measures. Kraken's Wyoming-chartered banking unit is the first crypto-native company to obtain such an account, raising concerns about regulatory and consumer protection issues. Waters also highlighted her past opposition to crypto legislation and the need for transparency in the approval process. Other crypto-linked companies, including Custodia Bank and Anchorage Digital Bank, have also sought Federal Reserve account access. USD 03:37 Korean Won Strengthens on Robust Exports and Dollar Supply The Korean won has strengthened against the U.S. dollar in October, averaging 1,342.6 won per dollar, the lowest rate since September 2024. This appreciation is driven by robust exports, a trade surplus, and increased dollar supply. The International Monetary Fund raised South Korea's growth forecast to 3.3 percent for 2026, and the Bank of Korea has lifted interest rates to 3 percent. Analysts expect the won to trade in the low- to mid-1,300-won range through the end of the year, though volatility may persist due to geopolitical risks and oil price concerns. USD JPY 03:19 Rural America bears the brunt of Trump’s inflation surge Rural America is experiencing higher inflation than urban areas due to Trump’s policies, including the war with Iran and tariffs. The consumer price index rose 3.7 per cent in September, with rural inflation at 4 per cent compared to 3.6 per cent in cities. Soaring fuel costs and healthcare expenses are exacerbating affordability challenges in rural communities. Political repercussions are already evident, with key Senate races in rural states shifting to toss-ups. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this month, adding to the economic strain ahead of the midterm elections. USD 02:33 RBA Faces Unemployment Pressure as Rate Decision Looms Australia's unemployment rate hit a five-year high of 4.7% in September, prompting speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may keep interest rates on hold in November. The RBA's upcoming speeches will be closely watched for clues on its rate decision. Meanwhile, the RBA's ban on credit and debit card surcharges has sparked debate, and Wall Street indices closed sharply lower amid pressure on tech stocks and rising oil prices. AUD 02:18 Macklem Warns of Rising Inflation Pressures Amid Global Energy Shocks Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that global energy price shocks are straining economic resilience and could drive up Canadian inflation. Speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, Macklem noted that while the global economy has been resilient, ongoing conflicts and trade disruptions are testing this resilience. He expects inflation to be higher than previously forecast and hinted at potential interest rate hikes if inflation persists. Macklem also expressed confidence in Canada's economic stability despite external challenges. USD CAD 01:46 Government Knew of ATO Credit Card Ban Plans Months Before Announcement Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino admitted the Australian government knew about the ATO's plans to ban credit card payments in July 2026, months before the decision was publicly announced. The backlash from small businesses led Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers to extend credit card acceptance until mid-2027. The ATO cited the $200 million annual cost of processing payments as the reason for the ban, while the Reserve Bank of Australia's surcharge removal was a contributing factor. The situation also exposed tensions between the treasurer and prime minister, though both denied any significant issues. AUD 01:20 EUR/USD Snaps Losing Streak at Critical Support Level The EUR/USD pair has fallen over 5% from its August highs, snapping a five-week losing streak at a critical support zone around 1.1110/63. The support zone is defined by key technical levels, and while the broader bearish outlook remains, the decline may be vulnerable while above this level. Key resistance levels are at 1.1276 and 1.1355/65, with a stronger recovery needed to suggest a more meaningful low. Upcoming PMI data from the Eurozone and U.S. could shape expectations ahead of the Fed and ECB rate decisions later this month. EUR USD 00:37 US Dollar Weakens After Four Weeks of Gains The US dollar weakened this week, ending a four-week winning streak as the USD Index (DXY) fell 0.42% to 101.78. The decline followed a peak near 103 points, driven by shifting investor sentiment and lower Treasury yields. Persistent inflation and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy contributed to the dollar's loss of momentum. In Vietnam, the central exchange rate for the USD was set at 25,637 VND, with commercial banks offering varying rates for buying and selling. EUR USD JPY 00:18 William Kurelek's Stock Exchange Artwork Heads to Auction An upcoming auction on October 29, 2026, will feature William Kurelek's 1973 artwork 'Light Trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.' The photolithographic reproduction, measuring 41.3 x 48.9 inches, is estimated to sell for 1,000-1,500 CAD (706-1,059 USD). The piece comes from a private Toronto collection and is in very good condition. USD CAD

Saturday, October 17

Times in UTC

23:47 Dubai woman wins tax battle over unexplained FCNR deposit income A Dubai-based woman and her husband invested Rs 3.41 crore in FCNR deposits but received separate tax notices for unexplained income. The ITAT Jaipur ruled in her favor, finding that the tax officer had misinterpreted the amounts in Japanese yen and that the funds had a valid source. The tribunal confirmed that the woman, as a non-resident, was not liable for tax on the NRE account income. JPY 23:11 Alberta's Wealth Contrasts with Growing Separation Debate Alberta, despite being Canada’s wealthiest province, is experiencing economic frustrations that are fueling separation debates. The CBC examines the factors behind this discontent and the potential economic impact of independence. Ottawa has expressed concerns over the stability of the national economy if Alberta were to separate. The debate highlights the complex trade-offs between autonomy and economic security. CAD 22:34 Won strength and yen weakness drive low won-yen exchange rate The South Korean won's strength against the Japanese yen has driven the weak won-yen exchange rate, with locals exchanging yen for potential gains. The yen has been weakening since the start of the year, briefly rising after a Bank of Japan rate hike but falling back to around 850 won. Experts expect the trend to continue, citing Japan's lack of export growth and active fiscal policy. Demand for yen exchanges and deposits has increased, with yen deposits at major banks rising significantly. JPY 22:17 Rare Frederick Horsman Varley Watercolour Heads to Auction A 1938 watercolour painting titled Arctic Islands by Frederick Horsman Varley will be auctioned on October 29, 2026, with an estimated price of 8,000-12,000 CAD. The artwork, measuring 22.9 x 30.5 cm, has a provenance tracing back to the Masters Gallery in Calgary and a private Victoria collection. Bidders can preview the piece at Heffel Fine Art Auction House in Vancouver. CAD 21:30 Macklem Says Higher Oil Prices Fueling Canada’s Economic Growth Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that higher oil prices are supporting economic growth in Canada due to the country’s status as a net energy exporter. While elevated gas prices reduce consumer spending, they boost exports, incomes, and investment. The central bank now expects stronger growth from sustained high energy prices, with corporate profits surging and Alberta projected to run a surplus. Macklem warned that inflation pressures may require interest rate hikes, with the next rate decision on October 28 and traders pricing in over a third chance of a hike. CAD 21:01 UK Inflation Data Could Trigger BOE Rate Hike in November UK inflation is expected to rise to a nine-month high of 3.4% in September, according to economists. This data, to be released this Wednesday, could influence the upcoming budget and a potential interest-rate hike by the Bank of England in November. Policymakers are returning to London after receiving an upgraded growth forecast from the International Monetary Fund, but the inflation report will provide a reality check on these projections. GBP 20:41 Bank of Canada warns high energy prices may fuel inflation The Bank of Canada's governor has warned that high global energy prices could worsen the country's inflation outlook. The remarks highlight concerns over sustained energy price increases contributing to broader inflationary pressures. Analysts point to recent volatility in energy markets due to geopolitical factors. The Bank of Canada may adjust monetary policy based on these developments. CAD 20:17 Bank of Canada Warns High Energy Prices Could Boost Inflation Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that high global energy prices could worsen Canada’s inflation outlook. Speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, Macklem noted global economic resilience is under strain due to conflicts and trade disruptions. He expects inflation to rise higher than previously forecast, with the Bank of Canada set to release updated projections on October 28. Macklem also signaled potential interest rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while expressing confidence in Canada’s economic stability. CAD 19:36 Canadian Banks Lead Q3 Buybacks as Insider Activity Signals Undervaluation Canadian banks dominated Q3 share buybacks, with Royal Bank of Canada leading at $2.3-billion. While none of the top three issuers saw insider buying, stocks like Torex Gold Resources (TXG-T) and Rockpoint Gas Storage (RGSI-T) combined buybacks with insider purchases, with Torex's share price surging 40.9 per cent. National Bank of Canada (NA-T) and Chemtrade Logistics (CHE-UN-T) also showed mixed performance. Insider activity remains a key indicator for potential undervaluation. CAD 19:16 ATO Credit Card Ban Delayed Amid Small Business Backlash The Australian government faced backlash for its decision to ban credit card payments for tax bills, citing a $200 million annual surcharge cost. Small business owners criticized the short notice and potential cash flow disruptions, especially as they prepare for the holiday season. The ATO claimed only 5% of small businesses use credit cards for taxes, but this still affects over 140,000 enterprises. Treasurer Jim Chalmers delayed the ban until the next financial year to allow more consultation time, though costs will be detailed later. AUD 18:47 UK Banks Pilot Tokenized Deposits for Faster, Programmable Payments Seven UK banks are testing tokenized sterling deposits through the Great British Tokenised Deposit initiative, achieving their first live customer transactions in September 2026. Tokenized deposits enable programmable payments that execute automatically under predefined conditions, potentially streamlining financial transactions. Challenges include security, interoperability, and regulatory clarity, with the Bank of England and FCA exploring frameworks to support adoption. The technology's long-term impact will depend on proving its superiority over existing payment systems. GBP 18:19 New Zealand Inflation Expected to Ease Briefly Amid Rising Fuel Concerns Economists expect New Zealand's inflation to ease slightly in the September quarter, with CPI projections ranging from 3.7% to 4.0%. However, rising fuel prices and a weak currency are likely to push inflation higher in the December quarter. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's next OCR review on October 28 may still result in a rate hike, despite the temporary softening of inflation. Experts warn that the current reprieve is temporary, with long-term inflation pressures remaining a concern. NZD 17:31 BOJ Governor Ueda Vows to Cap Inflation at 2% Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will not tolerate inflation rising above 2%. He noted that underlying inflation is close to the 2% target and emphasized the importance of stabilizing it. The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September and plans to continue rate hikes. Ueda made these remarks during a press conference in Bangkok following G20 meetings. JPY 17:12 Bank of Canada Governor Links Oil Prices to Economic Growth Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that higher oil prices are boosting economic growth in Canada, thanks to the country's status as a net energy exporter. He expects the bank to raise its inflation forecast later this month. Macklem made these remarks during a meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group in Bangkok. CAD 16:45 IMF Chair Highlights Global Resilience Amid Russia-Ukraine Tensions The IMF's steering committee chair, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, described the global economy as resilient but warned against complacency amid ongoing challenges. Nearly half of the delegates walked out during a speech by Russia's finance minister, protesting the war in Ukraine. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted concerns about economic divergence and the need for continued multilateral cooperation. The tensions highlight deep divisions over Russia's role in international forums and ongoing geopolitical strains. EUR 16:08 European Shares End Best Week Since June Amid Strong Earnings European shares closed their best week since June, with the STOXX 600 index rising 0.7% on Friday. Strong earnings from companies like Aixtron and Vestas helped counter a tech selloff driven by debt and competition concerns. The euro zone’s inflation remained high at 3.8%, prompting expectations of another ECB rate hike in December. Analysts believe positive earnings could lift market sentiment further. EUR 15:34 Rupee Strengthens to Near One-Month High Amid RBI Measures The Indian rupee strengthened to an intraday high of 94.75 per dollar on Wednesday, supported by RBI measures to curb speculation. It closed at 95.15 per dollar, a near one-month high. Analysts noted central bank interventions and unwinding of long dollar positions as key factors, though importer demand capped gains. Government Securities yields rose amid higher crude oil prices and increased WPI inflation to 11.39 per cent in September. USD 15:15 Oil Surge Inflation Pause and AI Pressures Rock Markets U.S. oil prices climbed over $100 per barrel due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East and a breakdown in the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Inflation in the U.S. rose to 3.7%, but the Federal Reserve signaled a pause in October. The AI sector faced pressure from Chinese chip advancements and spending worries, leading to a 5% drop in the Nasdaq-100®. Key events next week include earnings from META and TSLA, jobless claims, and preliminary October PMIs. USD 14:45 Economic Data Calm Next Week with Focus on Housing Starts and Inflation Trends The week ahead is quiet on the domestic data front, with U.S. housing starts expected to decline further due to elevated mortgage rates. Internationally, Canada’s CPI may rise on energy costs, while the U.K. and Japan could see accelerating inflation, reinforcing calls for rate hikes. China’s Q3 GDP growth is projected to improve slightly. Analysts forecast U.S. housing starts to fall 2.0% to 1,250K in September. CAD 14:13 Canada's Oil Prices Fuel Growth and Inflation Says Bank Governor Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that higher oil prices are boosting economic growth in Canada due to its status as a net energy exporter. He expects an updated inflation forecast later this month, highlighting the unique economic impacts on the country. Macklem made these remarks during a meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group in Bangkok. CAD 13:42 Tech Sell-Off Drags Down US Markets in Worst Week Since June US markets ended the week lower as a sell-off in tech stocks dragged down major indices. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, while the Nasdaq composite dropped 2.1%, its worst week since June. Chipmakers and other tech companies faced significant declines amid concerns over AI investment sustainability. Energy stocks held up better, and oil prices rose due to supply uncertainties. The Federal Reserve’s next move remains uncertain, with traders pricing in a 74.3% chance of a December rate hike. USD 13:14 Iran Uses US Inflation to Pressure Trump Ahead of Midterm Elections Iranian officials are using rising US fuel prices and inflation to criticize President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections, aiming to highlight the economic cost of the war with the US and Israel. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has shared social media posts criticizing US economic conditions and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, emphasizing the impact of the conflict on living costs. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has also addressed the American public, warning of potential economic implosion and urging voters to take control from corrupt politicians. The midterm elections could influence Trump’s ability to continue the war, with Democrats challenging his policies. Iran’s strategy focuses on increasing the political cost of the war for Trump, regardless of the election outcome. USD 12:44 Bank of England Governor Leads Protest Walkout at IMF Meeting Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey joined finance leaders from several European countries in walking out of an IMF meeting in protest against Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov's address. Nearly half of the delegates participated in the protest, emphasizing the existential nature of the Ukraine war for Europe. The IMF meeting discussed global economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with warnings against complacency due to public debt levels and high bond market rates. The US supported Russia’s presence at the meeting, despite European concerns. EUR GBP 12:11 Lagarde Says Bond Selloff Will Slow Euro Zone Inflation European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said a bond selloff is making borrowing more expensive in the euro zone, which is slowing economic growth and inflation. Bond yields have surged globally, with debt-heavy France particularly impacted. The selloff is driven by concerns over debt, inflation, and competition for credit from AI investments. Lagarde made the comments during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. EUR 11:42 Tech Sell-Off Drags Wall Street to Worst Week Since June Wall Street ended Friday with a broad sell-off in technology stocks, marking the market’s worst week since late June. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, while the Nasdaq composite sank 2.1%. Chipmakers and other tech companies led the declines, with investors worried about the sustainability of the AI buildout. Netflix’s stock fell 2.9% after announcing a leadership change and layoffs. Energy stocks held up better, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 5.09%. Traders now see a 74.3% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. EUR USD 11:12 Letter argues for Canada to exploit resources for economic growth A letter in The Globe and Mail argues that Canada should leverage its resource extraction strengths, particularly in the oil sands, to build higher-value sectors. The writer highlights the long-term viability of oil sands development and the need for responsible resource management. Other letters address governance issues in B.C. universities, AI accountability, and a tribute to Robert Munsch. CAD 10:49 UBS Sees Low Risk of Yen Carry Trade Reversal Despite Rising Yields A UBS report on October 14 downplayed the likelihood of a major reversal in the yen carry trade, despite rising Japanese bond yields. The bank noted that global yield increases preserve the attractiveness of the carry trade, which involves borrowing in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. UBS expects the yen to remain weak and forecasts Bank of Japan interest rates to peak at 2% within 12 months. The report also identified emerging markets potentially vulnerable to capital repatriation by Japanese investors, while maintaining a constructive view on emerging-market equities, particularly in Korea, Brazil, and China. JPY 10:22 Wealth gap widens as older Americans get richer while younger ones struggle The Federal Reserve's latest survey shows that between 2022 and 2025, households headed by someone 75 or older saw their median net worth rise by 38%, while those under 35 experienced a 23% decline. The oldest group now holds about 15 times the wealth of the youngest, up from 9 times three years earlier. Experts attribute this divide to differences in asset ownership, with older households benefiting from appreciating homes and investments, while younger ones rely on depreciating assets like cars. The wealth gap has political implications, as younger voters may feel economically left behind. Overall, the data highlights a growing generational divide in wealth accumulation. USD 09:43 Pound Hits 3-Week High on Strong UK Economic Data The British pound hit a three-week high of $1.333 after stronger-than-expected UK economic data. GDP grew 0.1% in August, beating contraction forecasts, and output rose 0.7% over three months. This resilience supports expectations of a Bank of England rate hike on November 5. Governor Andrew Bailey warned it's too early to assess the full impact of higher energy costs, while investors await Chancellor John Healey’s budget. GBP 09:27 Lagarde highlights euro resilience and digital euro progress ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the euro-area economy remains resilient despite inflation driven by high energy costs, which is expected to ease next year. She highlighted the development of the digital euro, aimed at complementing cash for daily payments and boosting innovation. The ECB also introduced Pontes, a system for settling tokenized asset transactions, with full implementation planned by 2028. EUR 08:45 Jio IPO and IDBI Bank Sale Highlight India’s Financial Week Jio Platforms is preparing for India’s largest IPO, set to raise ₹30,200 crore and list on 28 October. The NPCI has postponed UPI transaction charges until after Diwali to avoid disrupting festive season transactions. The Union Cabinet approved the sale of a 60.7% stake in IDBI Bank to Fairfax Financial Holdings for ₹52,877 crore, marking the biggest privatization since Air India. The rupee gained 1.8% against the dollar following RBI measures to stabilize the currency. USD 08:27 ECB Eyes December Rate Hike Amid Growing Economic Risks The European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates in December 2026, marking its third hike of the year. While an October move is still possible, officials in Bangkok emphasized December as the more probable timing. The decision reflects the growing complexity of economic risks that will influence policy choices in the coming year. Traders and economists widely anticipate this hike, which is seen as a strategic move to balance stability and economic challenges. EUR 07:45 Lagarde Urges Sustainable Finances for Economic Stability European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde addressed global finance ministers in Thailand, emphasizing that sustainable public finances are essential for economic stability. She described fiscal sustainability as a crucial anchor for broader economic health during her speech to the International Monetary and Financial Committee. Lagarde's remarks focused on the need for responsible financial management to address current and future economic challenges. EUR 07:05 Lagarde Warns of Rising Inflation Risks Urges Fiscal Discipline ECB President Christine Lagarde urged governments to maintain fiscal discipline, warning that rising debt and energy-related inflation risks threaten economic stability. Speaking at the IMF’s annual meetings, she called for adherence to fiscal rules and temporary, targeted measures to address the energy shock. The ECB has raised interest rates twice this year and expects another hike before year-end to combat inflation. Governing Council members Olli Rehn and Joachim Nagel emphasized the need for international cooperation and further monetary tightening if necessary. EUR 06:43 Rural America Faces Inflation Fallout from Trump’s Policies President Donald Trump’s policies have led to higher inflation in rural America, with consumer prices rising 4% year-over-year compared to 3.6% in urban areas. The surge is driven by fuel costs, tariffs, and the war with Iran, which have disrupted energy shipments and increased freight rates. Rural voters, a key Republican base, are increasingly discontented, with 35% now believing Trump’s policies have harmed the U.S. The economic strain has political implications, shifting some traditionally Republican states into toss-up territory ahead of the midterm elections. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to combat inflation, further complicating the situation for struggling rural communities. USD 06:07 Mixed Market Performance as TSX Gains Amid U.S. Declines The TSX gained 0.11% today, while U.S. markets declined, with the NASDAQ dropping 2.15%. Enbridge rose 2.35%, and Ballard Power Systems fell 7.69%. Oil prices increased by 2.61%, and the U.S. dollar strengthened by 0.33%. The British Pound to Qatar Riyal pair showed a 1-year change of -2.05%. USD GBP CAD 05:31 Dollar Set for Weekly Decline as AI Selloff Shakes Markets The US dollar is set for its first weekly fall in over a month against the euro and yen, as investors focus on the Federal Reserve's rate outlook and ease concerns over the Iran conflict. The selloff in AI stocks has spread to the credit market, raising doubts about the profitability of data center operators. Analysts suggest the dollar may weaken further if AI investment outlook dims, reducing bond supply and impairing US growth. The euro and yen are showing gains, while the Swiss franc benefits from its safe-haven status. The S&P 500 rebounded on Thursday, shifting focus from AI to healthcare and consumer stocks. EUR USD CHF 05:02 New Zealand fuel prices hit record highs with no relief in sight Fuel prices in New Zealand have surged, with some stations charging over $4 per litre for 95 petrol. The national average for 95 petrol is $3.80, up 11% in 28 days, while 91 petrol averages $3.61 and diesel $3.23. Experts attribute the rise to high freight costs, a weak NZ dollar, and geopolitical tensions. They predict prices will remain high until at least Christmas, with no immediate relief expected. NZD 04:40 Warsh Calls AI a Major Economic Force as Norway Data Center Lags Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh described AI as a major economic force, while a key AI data center in Norway faces delays. Katie Zacharia resigned as Trump's press secretary after five days. Analysts also weighed in on the US midterms and NFL developments. USD 04:00 Ueda Vows to Keep Inflation in Check as BOJ Eyes Rate Hikes Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated his stance against inflation exceeding 2% during a press conference in Bangkok. He indicated that the BOJ will continue raising interest rates as needed, with markets pricing in a 75% chance of a hike by December. Next week's CPI data is expected to show steady inflation, and Ueda noted that underlying inflation could reach the 2% target within 18 months. The BOJ will monitor various economic factors, including Middle East developments and AI demand, to guide future rate decisions. JPY 03:49 Energy Drives Inflation Higher in Europe and the US Energy prices are pushing inflation higher in Europe and the US, while Japan sees a slight negative impact from energy. Core inflation measures are firming in the euro area and Japan, signaling a trend to watch. Producer prices in Europe and Japan are under pressure, increasing the risk of the energy shock affecting other CPI items. Short-term market expectations are adjusting to these inflationary pressures, with long-term expectations rising in Japan and the UK. EUR 03:02 Mixed Market Movements as TSX Gains While Major Indices Fall Canadian stock markets showed mixed results with the TSX slightly up while the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ all declined. Oil prices rose by 2.61%, and the U.S. dollar gained 0.33%. Notable stock movers included Enbridge up by 2.35% and Ballard Power Systems down by 7.69%. The Chinese yuan against the New Zealand dollar saw a 1-year change of +7.84%. USD CAD NZD 02:31 Canada Job Losses Complicate Bank of Canada Rate Decision Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, raising the unemployment rate to 6.5% and complicating the Bank of Canada’s October 28 interest rate decision. The job losses were widespread, affecting multiple sectors, while high energy costs and tariffs add to economic pressures. Bank of Nova Scotia reported strong profitability but faces lending risks due to the weaker job market. Borrowers and investors must prepare for various rate outcomes. CAD 02:18 New York Service Sector Firms Turn Pessimistic in October 2026 Survey The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October 2026 Business Leaders Survey shows a shift to pessimism among service sector firms, with the future business activity index falling to, 5.1. The survey highlights declining business activity, flat employment, and rising prices. Other reports, including those from the National Federation of Independent Business and The Conference Board, also indicate declining optimism among small businesses and CEOs. USD 01:31 Canada Job Losses Complicate Bank of Canada Rate Decision Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, complicating the Bank of Canada's October 28 interest rate decision. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, with significant job losses in key sectors. Bank of Nova Scotia reported strong profitability but faces lending risks. Investors should balance bank holdings with economic uncertainty in mind. CAD 00:37 US Dollar Forms Bearish Pattern After Inflation Surge The US Dollar initially rallied on strong inflation data but then pulled back, forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. EUR/USD showed signs of a potential reversal, with key support at 1.1200. GBP/USD is favored for USD weakness, while USD/JPY remains bullish. The 101.80 level in the DXY basket is a critical support to watch. EUR USD JPY GBP 00:11 New Zealand Dollar Gains as Fed Rate Hike Doubts Weaken USD The New Zealand Dollar strengthened against the US Dollar, rising 0.55% to 0.5652, as investors doubted a Fed rate hike in October despite hot US inflation data. The probability of a Fed hike remains low at 16%, with officials favoring a December move. Upcoming New Zealand economic data, including the CPI for Q3, could influence the RBNZ's rate decision. Technically, NZD/USD shows signs of a bullish reversal after a recent low. USD NZD

Friday, October 16

Times in UTC

23:31 TSX Closes Week with Modest Gains Amid Energy Concerns The TSX Composite Index closed Friday with gains of 39.45 points, ending the week up 1.44%. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem cautioned about energy-price pressures affecting interest rates, with a potential hike expected in December. Energy and consumer staples stocks rose, while tech stocks declined. Economic data showed a drop in home sales but higher-than-expected housing starts. Foreign investors reduced holdings of Canadian securities. CAD 23:10 TSX Gains on Energy Shares as Macklem Warns on Rate Pressures Canada's TSX Composite opened higher on Friday, led by energy shares, with the index surging 1.6%. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned about energy-price pressures on interest rates, though no rate hike is expected on October 28. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a 2.3% decline in home sales in September, while housing starts exceeded expectations. In the U.S., stocks were mixed, with the Dow Jones rising and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ declining amid tech and AI-related sell-offs. CAD 22:47 Japan's Megabanks Complete Yen Stablecoin Pilot for Cross-Border Payments Japan's three megabanks, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., Mizuho Bank, and MUFG Bank, completed a proof of concept for a jointly issued yen stablecoin, testing its use in cross-border payments. The pilot confirmed the feasibility of a multi-bank model, and the banks plan to launch live transactions in fiscal 2026. The stablecoin was issued under Japan's Payment Services Act, with anti-money laundering checks included in the test. Japan already has a regulated yen stablecoin from JPYC. JPY 22:01 TSX Climbs While U.S. Markets Drop on Tech Sell-Off and Oil Surge Canada’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 39.45 points to 36,176.55 on Friday, while U.S. markets fell due to a tech sell-off and rising oil prices. Investors are watching for Canada’s September inflation data, expected to rise to 3.2%. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined, with tech stocks like Micron and Intel leading the drop. Oil prices climbed to US$99.02 per barrel amid supply concerns, while the Canadian dollar and gold prices also increased. CAD 21:32 USD/CHF Rally Reverses After Seven Weeks of Gains The USD/CHF pair is poised to snap a seven-week rally after failing to sustain gains above key resistance levels. A developing outside-week reversal and weakening momentum suggest a deeper correction may be underway. Immediate focus is on a break of key support at 8200/09 to confirm this. The yearly uptrend remains intact, but the coming weekly close could determine the next move. Treasury yields and risk sentiment may drive the next catalyst for the pair. CHF 21:00 Canada's September CPI Expected to Hold at 3% on Energy Prices RBC strategists expect Canada's headline CPI to hold at 3% year-over-year in September, supported by higher energy prices. Core CPI is seen easing to 1.8%, with limited pass-through of energy inflation to other components. The CPI diffusion index shows narrow inflation pressures, but industrial production prices indicate a broader spread. Transportation categories remain a focus due to potential risks. CAD 20:39 Alberta Votes on Separation Amid Rising Canada-US Tensions Alberta is voting Monday on whether to start the legal process for a potential separation from Canada. Prime Minister Justin Carney has urged unity, warning of external threats to Canada's economy and security. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith voted to remain in Canada but acknowledged grievances with Ottawa. Polling shows seven in ten Albertans want to stay in Canada, suggesting limited support for separation. Meanwhile, trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. under President Trump continue to escalate. CAD 20:12 Quest Insurance Risk Management Downgraded Amid Distributor Reliance AM Best downgraded Quest Insurance Group’s risk management assessment to marginal due to its reliance on a single distributor, which accounted for over half of its 2026 premium. The insurer’s distribution agreement with Janssen Insurance expires in March 2027, raising concerns about future business stability. Despite this, Quest reported a 27% increase in gross written premium to NZ$70.6 million in fiscal year 2026, with strong operating performance and adequate balance sheet strength. However, its small capital base increases sensitivity to financial stress. NZD 19:36 BCC Urges Burnham to Fix Brexit Economic Damage The British Chambers of Commerce has urged Andy Burnham to prioritize fixing Brexit’s economic damage as he reassesses Labour’s EU stance. Shevaun Haviland, the BCC’s director general, said more than half of surveyed businesses believe the Brexit deal has not helped them, with economists estimating a £240bn cost to the UK economy. The BCC will consult its members on future EU relationship options, while Haviland called for bold action in the upcoming budget to support struggling businesses. GBP 19:25 Analysts Show Cautious Optimism in October 15 Market Updates On October 15, 2026, US analysts showed a cautious but selectively optimistic market outlook, with more price target reductions than increases. Key updates included adjustments for A10 Networks, Accenture, and AECOM, while Alnylam Pharmaceuticals was initiated with a Buy rating. Bank of America saw multiple target adjustments, and several other companies received notable upgrades or downgrades. Analysts remained positive toward companies with strong fundamentals but adopted a conservative stance on broader valuations. CAD 18:44 Japan Megabanks Complete First Joint Yen Stablecoin Trial Japan's top megabanks have successfully tested a joint yen stablecoin in a pilot project supervised by the Financial Services Agency. The stablecoins completed the full cycle from issuance to redemption without issues, with a commercial launch planned before the end of the fiscal year. The test is closely linked to the XRP Ledger ecosystem, as the banks have a history of integrating Ripple's technologies. The digital yen's launch on the Progmat platform may create a segmented market where corporate fiat and open digital assets coexist. JPY 18:05 Euro gains ground as AI sector shifts weaken the dollar The euro saw a slight reprieve as AI-related fluctuations weakened the dollar, while the British pound continued its rise against both the euro and the dollar. The UK economy beat August forecasts, driven by growth in the computer programming sector, which boosted confidence in the Bank of England's ability to raise rates. The euro fell to its lowest level against the pound since June 2025, while sterling reached a three-week high against the dollar. Investors are watching for the BoE's next rate decision on November 5 and the UK's budget announcement on October 29. EUR GBP 17:34 Canada Invests in Workforce and Energy Measures for Economic Growth The Canadian government is prioritizing workforce investments and measures to reduce energy costs and emissions. Major projects across the country aim to strengthen the economy, diversify trade, and create jobs. The focus is on meeting the growing demand for a skilled workforce to support economic growth. The Globe and Mail published the press release with a disclaimer about its third-party nature. CAD 17:16 Dollar Set for Worst Week in Over a Month After Warsh Remarks The US dollar is heading for its worst week in over a month, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling as much as 0.4% on Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks failed to support the currency, leading to a decline against most major peers. The euro is set to snap a five-week losing streak as the dollar weakens. The drop marks the end of a four-week winning streak for the greenback. EUR USD 16:49 Capital Advisors Boosts NVIDIA Stake Amid Mixed Market Sentiment Capital Advisors Inc. OK increased its stake in NVIDIA by 0.9% during the second quarter, joining other institutional investors like Bank of America and Amundi in boosting their positions. Insiders, however, have been selling shares, with CFO Colette Kress and Director Mark A. Stevens reducing their holdings. NVIDIA's stock has seen mixed sentiment, with positive partnerships offset by macroeconomic concerns and competition. Analysts maintain an average price target of $321.89 with a consensus Buy rating. CHF 16:07 Mixed US Markets as Tech Stocks Weigh on Nasdaq US stock markets were mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down slightly while the Dow Jones rose. Tech stocks, particularly AI-related companies, dragged down the market amid concerns over their ability to sustain investments. Netflix's stock fell following leadership changes and layoff announcements. Treasury yields held steady at 5.10%, and traders now see a 76.1% chance of a Fed rate hike by December. Oil prices remained high due to global supply concerns. EUR USD 15:35 Dollar Weakens as Fed Hike Bets Fade and AI Concerns Grow The US dollar weakened on Friday, October 16, 2026, heading for its first weekly loss in over a month against the euro and yen. Fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and AI-driven equity selloff concerns weighed on the dollar. The dollar index fell 0.42% to 101.61, with the pound and Swiss franc leading gains. Markets now see an 85% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October, leaving December's decision uncertain. EUR USD JPY CHF 15:09 BOJ Governor Ueda Warns Against Rising Inflation Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation cannot rise further above 2%, reinforcing expectations of rate hikes. Speaking in Bangkok, he emphasized that price gains nearing the BOJ’s target would influence policy decisions. His remarks suggest the central bank is committed to controlling inflation. JPY 14:50 Autumn Budget Risks Could Weaken British Pound The British Pound has gained against the US Dollar, but these gains could be at risk due to the upcoming Autumn Budget Bill on October 28th. Nordea strategists highlight the Pound's diminished carry appeal with the BoE's rate held at 3.75%, though resilient UK growth has provided support. The budget could push yields higher and weaken the Pound if markets are dissatisfied with fiscal measures. A potential November rate hike by the BoE may support the GBP, but fiscal risks remain a concern. EUR USD GBP 14:28 Canada's Key Data Releases Could Decide Rate Hike Path Investors are awaiting key economic data releases in Canada on Monday, including September inflation figures and business/consumer outlook surveys. These reports will be crucial in determining the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on October 28. The data will provide insights into how the economy is managing oil-driven inflation and trade tensions. The outcomes could shape investor expectations and market behavior. CAD 13:54 Canada’s Inflation and Business Survey in Focus Ahead of BoC Decision Canadian inflation data and the Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey, released on October 19, will be key indicators for the BoC’s interest rate decision on October 28. Headline CPI is expected to hold at 3% in September, driven by energy price increases, while core inflation is projected to ease. The business survey will reveal how firms are adjusting to elevated energy costs and trade uncertainties. The BoC faces a delicate balance between inflation risks and a gradually improving but soft economy. CAD 13:09 BOJ Governor Ueda Warns Against Inflation Rising Above 2% Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Friday that he cannot tolerate underlying inflation rising further above 2%. He noted that underlying inflation is already around the bank’s target and emphasized that any additional increase would be unacceptable. Ueda’s comments highlight the BOJ’s focus on maintaining price stability and suggest potential policy adjustments if inflation exceeds the 2% mark. JPY 12:31 Swiss 10-Year Bond Yield Near Three-Week Low Amid Fiscal Concerns The yield on Switzerland’s 10-year government bond has held near 0.52%, its lowest in three weeks, as investors weigh Europe’s fiscal outlook and global monetary tightening. The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0%, citing stable inflation and strong economic performance. Markets expect a rate hike in early 2027, with three increases projected by year-end. EUR CHF 12:04 Euro Poised to End Five-Week Losing Streak After Warsh Remarks The euro is poised to end a five-week losing streak against the dollar after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks weakened the greenback. The currency advanced 0.3% to $1.1257, recovering from a 17-month low. Despite this rebound, options pricing suggests the euro may still face pressure in the months ahead. Warsh's comments provided a brief respite, but long-term challenges remain. EUR USD 11:37 TSX Gains 1.55% as Canadian Dollar Strengthens Against Icelandic Krona The TSX rose by 1.55% today, with the S&P 500 and Dow also gaining modestly. Oil prices fell by 0.46%, while gold increased by 0.76%. Notable TSX movers included Enbridge (ENB) down 1.51% and Telus (T) up 2.78%. The Canadian dollar saw a 15.39% rise against the Icelandic krona over the past year. USD CAD 11:06 Healey’s Bank Tax Plan Puts Him at Odds With BOE’s Bailey UK Chancellor John Healey is planning to reverse a 2023 tax cut for banks, raising the surcharge from 3% to 8% and potentially generating £3 billion in revenue. This move risks creating a rift with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who may have concerns about the economic impact. The decision aims to ease Britain’s fiscal strain but could lead to policy disagreements. GBP 10:52 Iowa’s Economic Pain Turns Swing State Ahead of Midterms Iowa’s economy is suffering under President Trump’s tariffs and Iran policies, with farmers and manufacturers facing rising costs. The state, traditionally Republican, is becoming a swing state ahead of the November 3 midterms. Voters express mixed feelings about trade policies and Iran, with some supporting Democrats for the first time. John Deere and Arconic, major employers in the Quad Cities, are feeling the economic strain of tariffs. The region’s economy has stagnated since the 1980s, with recent revitalization efforts providing some hope. CAD 10:06 Treasury yields dip on hot inflation data and Fed remarks U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Friday as investors processed hotter-than-expected inflation data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's comments on interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 5.074%, the 30-year yield held steady at 5.422%, and the 2-year yield declined to 4.731%. The market's reaction reflects ongoing uncertainty about inflation and monetary policy. USD 09:38 Wholesale Prices Surge 6.3% Annually in September Driven by Energy Costs Wholesale prices in the U.S. jumped 6.3% annually in September, the largest gain since 2022, driven by energy costs amid the U.S. conflict with Iran. The producer price index (PPI) rose 1.3% monthly, exceeding expectations, while the core PPI also increased. Recent economic reports, including the consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales data, indicate persistent inflation pressures. Traders now see a higher likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month. USD 09:07 Warsh silent on Fed policy as inflation data heats up and AI stocks tumble Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh avoided hinting at policy changes before the October meeting, while U.S. producer prices rose 6.3% annually in September, exceeding forecasts. The AI sector saw over $1 trillion in losses this week, with CoreWeave's credit stress highlighting funding concerns. Russia's finance minister attended the G20 meeting in Bangkok, facing European resistance. Hybe shares jumped 10% on strong earnings expectations from BTS' global concerts. EUR USD 08:36 Treasury Yields Dip as Inflation Data Surprises Investors U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Friday following hotter-than-expected inflation data and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's comments. The 10-year yield fell to 5.074%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 4.731%. September's producer price index rose 6.3% annually, surpassing forecasts, and the consumer price index increased 3.7% annually. Warsh avoided signaling any rate hikes, and traders now see an 87% chance the Fed will hold rates. USD 08:05 IMF Predicts One More BOJ Rate Hike Toward Neutral The IMF expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates one more time to reach the neutral rate, while advising flexibility due to global economic uncertainty. Mission Chief Rahul Anand highlighted this projection in an interview on Friday, emphasizing the need for adaptable policy decisions. JPY 07:59 ECB's Rehn Anticipates More Data for December Rate Decision ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated that policymakers will have more data to analyze in December, including macroeconomic projections on growth and inflation. He suggested the current policy approach is working but emphasized the importance of the upcoming information for decision-making. The December meeting will be the final rate decision of the year, highlighting its significance for economic policy. EUR 07:06 Inflation Pressures Intensify Fed Rate Hike Expectations The latest PPI data shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures spreading from the energy sector to the broader economy. Forecasts project a 0.32% month-over-month rise in the core PCE price index for September, increasing market expectations for another Fed rate hike this year. The probability of a rate hike before year-end has surpassed 90%, with economists suggesting action as early as this month. Despite this, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 5.04% before settling at 5.09%, attributed to concerns over AI-related financing risks and their impact on economic growth. The widening gap between PPI and CPI growth rates signals potential risks to corporate earnings. USD 06:32 Rakuten raises record 400 billion yen in bond sale driven by retail demand Rakuten Group Inc. raised a record ¥400 billion ($2.5 billion) through its largest-ever yen bond sale, with ¥360 billion sold to retail investors and ¥40 billion to institutional investors. The 5.5-year bonds carry a 4.37% coupon and were priced at a spread of 200 basis points over the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond. The sale highlights strong retail demand and Rakuten's strategic focus on individual investors. JPY 06:03 Warsh Leaves October Fed Rate Hold Expectations Unchallenged Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not dispel expectations of a rate hold at the October meeting during a discussion at the IMF’s annual meetings in Bangkok. He emphasized price stability but avoided detailed policy remarks, leaving markets anticipating steady interest rates. The comments reinforced existing market sentiment ahead of the Fed’s upcoming decision. USD 05:47 Gold Climbs on Weak Dollar but Faces Weekly Loss Gold prices edged higher on Friday due to a weaker dollar but faced a weekly decline as investors reacted to Federal Reserve signals on interest rates. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,177.82 per ounce, while US gold futures climbed 0.7% to $4,199.10. Inflation data remained strong, with core CPI and PPI exceeding expectations, and traders priced in a high probability of a December rate hike. In India, mutual funds suspended bulk subscriptions to gold ETFs ahead of the festive season. USD 05:06 Fed Chairman Warsh Announces Bay Area Hearing on Jobs and Productivity Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced a field hearing for his task force on productivity and jobs, set for November 16 in the San Francisco Bay Area. The news was shared during a discussion at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings in Bangkok. The hearing aims to gather insights from regional stakeholders to address economic challenges related to job creation and productivity growth. USD 04:47 US Midterms 2026: Three Market Scenarios Explained The US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, could significantly impact markets depending on whether Republicans retain control, Congress splits, or Democrats take both chambers. A Republican victory would strengthen Trump's policies but raise fiscal concerns and boost bond yields. A split Congress would constrain Trump's agenda, focusing on foreign policy and trade. A Democrat clean sweep would likely maintain policy stasis, with bond markets balancing deficits and inflation. The dollar's strength would depend on the outcome and potential government shutdowns. EUR 04:02 Australian Dollar Strengthens on Fed Caution and Weak Jobs Data The Australian Dollar rose to near 0.6945 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech, which highlighted cautious optimism and data-dependent policy decisions. The probability of an RBA rate hike in November fell below 20% following weak jobs data, showing a 4.7% unemployment rate and a loss of 39,300 jobs. Warsh’s speech scored 5.6/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, reinforcing a hawkish Fed stance. Technically, AUD/USD remains bearish below key moving averages, with resistance at 0.6885 and 0.6990. USD AUD 03:33 BoE Governor Sees No Clear Signs of Embedded UK Inflation Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has reported minimal signs of inflation becoming a long-term issue in the UK's price and wage settings. He made these remarks at the Institute of International Finance annual meeting in Bangkok on October 15, 2026. The central bank is keeping a close watch for any indicators of a second-round inflation shock, where rising costs lead to higher wages and prices in a cyclical pattern. Bailey's comments highlight the ongoing need for careful economic monitoring to prevent persistent inflation. GBP 03:29 British Pound Recovers Near 1.3300 Ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s Speech The British Pound has climbed to near 1.3285 against the US Dollar, recovering from a 10-month low amid a weaker Dollar. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming speech may influence further movements. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged inflation frustrations but struck a cautious tone, limiting GBP upside. Technically, GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.3311 and support at 1.3137. USD GBP 02:37 Canadians favor midsize banks over Big Five in satisfaction survey A J.D. Power survey found that Canadians prefer midsize banks over the Big Five, with Tangerine leading the midsize category and RBC topping the Big Five. Fintechs are attracting more customers due to lower fees and better digital services, particularly among younger generations. The survey also noted that traditional banks need to improve communication about account benefits to retain customers. Overall banking satisfaction rose slightly compared to last year. CAD 02:04 Policymakers face dilemma over inflation and sovereign debt As sovereign debt levels soar in wealthy nations, policymakers face a tough choice: let inflation rise to reduce debt burdens or maintain price stability. In the US, inflation hit 3.7% in September, but the White House opposes Fed rate hikes to curb it. The Eurozone’s centralized monetary policy offers some stability, though fiscal disparities could create tensions. Experts argue that keeping price levels in check is crucial for global economic health. EUR USD 01:40 Hamilton ETF Offers 9.8% Yield for Retirees Eyeing GIC Renewals Retirees with maturing GICs may find current renewal rates unattractive and should consider alternatives like the Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Covered Call ETF (HDIV), which offers a 9.8% annual yield. The ETF uses a covered call strategy and 25% leverage to boost returns, though this also increases risk. Economic uncertainties in Canada may keep interest rates stable, making HDIV an appealing option for income investors seeking higher yields. USD CAD 01:01 New Zealand Regulators Warn of AI Cyber Risks for Financial Firms New Zealand’s financial regulators have outlined expectations for managing cyber risks associated with frontier AI. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Financial Markets Authority highlighted increased cyberthreats, governance challenges, and concentration risks. They emphasized the need for boards and senior managers to understand AI usage, assign accountability, and maintain cybersecurity controls. The statement builds on existing regulatory obligations to address the growing risks posed by AI in financial institutions. NZD 00:46 Won gains as dollar weakens and exporters sell USD The South Korean won strengthened against the U.S. dollar on October 16, with the exchange rate falling to 1,341.5 won. Analysts predict it could drop below 1,340 won due to declining U.S. bond yields and dollar sales by exporters. However, foreign investors' net selling of domestic stocks, especially in semiconductors, may limit the won's gains. USD 00:04 Major Central Banks Set for Cautious Rate Hikes Ahead The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates in December but not October, while the European Central Bank may also raise rates in December. The Bank of England plans two hikes, in November and February, though the case remains uncertain. The Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike in October, with the next move possibly in December or January, targeting a terminal rate of 1.75-2.00%. EUR USD JPY GBP

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