Alberta Separation: Trade, Currency, and Treaty Implications

A report by the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy has laid out the potential consequences of Alberta separation, including trade and treaty implications. The report notes that Alberta's trade with the US is more valuable than its exports to the rest of Canada, making it potentially beneficial for a new country to strike a direct deal with Washington.

However, this would come with risks, as the US administration could offer terms unfavorable to an oil-producing neighbor. Joining CUSMA could provide tariff-free access to big customers but might be lengthy and face opposition from Democrats in Congress due to their stance on pipelines like Keystone XL.

The report also highlights the challenges of establishing a new currency for Alberta, with options including sticking with the Canadian dollar, adopting an Alberta-Canada monetary union, or introducing a new form of money. The volatility of the fossil fuel economy could make it difficult for a standalone Alberta to boost its credit rating.