Alberta's Economic Future: More Government Revenue, But Not Necessarily Higher Incomes

A sovereign Alberta may not be as economically beneficial as its proponents claim, according to Herbert Emery, the Vaughan Professor in Regional Economics at the University of New Brunswick.

In a recent report, Emery argues that the elimination of federal climate policies and regulations would likely increase oil production in Alberta. However, he notes that this increased production would not necessarily translate to higher average incomes for Albertans or more investment in the province's economy.

In fact, Emery suggests that the gains from increased oil exports would largely be captured by the government through higher resource revenues. He estimates that a 1 million barrel per day increase in oilsands production could result in an additional $4 billion in annual government revenues, or around $700 per Albertan per year.

However, Emery cautions that there are potential barriers to investment and oil output growth if Alberta separates from Canada. He notes that political instability and policy uncertainty during the transition period could deter investors and companies from investing in Alberta's energy sector, at least in the short term.