Bernstein Sees Gold Rising With Slowly Climbing Real Rates

Gold price forecast for 2030 has been revised by Bernstein, and while it's now lower at $5,600 an ounce, the firm remains optimistic. Analyst Bob Brackett explains that gold can continue to rise even as real interest rates climb.

The change in forecast comes after interest rate expectations shifted from one or two cuts at the start of the year to two or three hikes by 2027, causing real rates to rise to around 2.7% from 1.7% in early March.

Brackett notes that despite gold's historically negative correlation with real rates, prices have held up well after the Fed's recent hike and gold ETF holdings have been broadly flat this year.

The resilience of gold is attributed to central bank buying, which Bernstein believes will continue as a key structural driver. The firm expects central banks to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar and other G7 currencies into gold, citing several large reserve holders that allocate less than 10% to gold.