Brent Crude May Hit $120 as West Asia Tensions Intensify

A Brickwork Ratings report predicts that Brent crude prices may surge to $120 per barrel if geopolitical tensions in West Asia escalate. The report, released on September 28, suggests that disruptions in the region and partial recovery of pipeline and shipping operations could lead to higher prices.

Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research at Brickwork Ratings, said Brent futures have already risen by about 20% in a month to around $109. Physical Brent has reached $130.80, indicating tight supply. Sharan expects Brent to trade within a broad range of $100-$110 per barrel over the next one to two months.

The report also estimates that Indian rupee could trade at Rs 94-98 against the US dollar under its base case scenario. It projects CPI inflation at 5-5.5% and real GDP growth for FY27 at 6.6-7%. A sustained $10 increase in crude oil prices could widen India's current account deficit by 0.3-0.4% of GDP and add 20-30 basis points to inflation over a one-year period.